comparison of 5-year incidence of type 2 diabetes in obese and non-obese adult population: the yahs cohort

Background: obesity is an important predictor of diabetes. defining the risk of diabetes among obese subjects is important for preventive health strategies. this study aims to compare the 5-year incidence of diabetes in obese and non-obese adult participants aged 20-70 years in a large population sample of central iran. methods: in this prospective study, 9964 people aged 20-70 years were selected between 2014 and 2015 using multi-stage cluster sampling from yazd greater area, iran. participants with diabetes were excluded and non-diabetic individuals were evaluated for incident diabetes after a five-year follow-up. logistic regression was used to find the association between obesity and 5-year incidence of diabetes in bivariate, and multivariate adjusted models for age, sex, physical activity, medical history, marital status, smoking, and education. results: out of the initial 9964 participants, 1383 (14%) were excluded due to prevalence of diabetes. the remaining 8413 (86.0%) participants were re-examined in 2019-2020. after five years of follow up, diabetes occurred in 6.6% (n=556) of the participants. the incidence of diabetes in obese men and women was 10.4% (n=109) and 9.9% (n=264), respectively; however, it was 4.5% (n=143) and 2.8% (n=40) in their non-obese counterparts (p<0.01). after multivariate analysis, obesity was associated with a higher likelihood of diabetes in men (or=1.77, 95% ci: 1.33-2.35), women (or=2.23, 95% ci: 1.55-3.21), and overall (or=1.99, 95%ci: 1.60-2.48). similar findings were obtained in participants aged under and over 60 years (p<0.05). conclusion: there was a positive association between obesity and 5-year incidence of diabetes in an iranian adult population. interventions are required to change lifestyle in the adult population especially in younger participants to prevent obesity and diabetes.corresponding author:mohammadtaghi sarebanhassanabadiview orcid in profileyou can search for this author in pubmed     google scholar profile