forecasting long-term trends of the covid-19 outbreak in yazd with an svir model

‎this article examines the transmission of covid-19 from a mathematical model perspective‎, ‎analyzing its spread pattern‎. ‎given the virus's adherence to standard epidemic disease transmission principles and the effectiveness of vaccination in mitigating and controlling its spread‎, ‎we employ the svir model to demonstrate the disease's progression in yazd‎. ‎the data used in this study was provided by the medical care monitoring center of yazd shahid sadoughi university of medical sciences‎, ‎yazd‎, ‎iran‎, ‎for 770 days between september 27‎, ‎2020 to november 5‎, ‎2022‎. to establish thelparameters‎, ‎we utilized the genetic algorithm (ga) to minimize the cost function between the model's prediction and the real data‎.‎additionally‎, ‎we conducted our simulations using matlab software‎. ‎identifying the factors that contribute to the spread of the virus through mathematical modeling can be a crucial step towards controlling the disease‎, ‎given its catastrophic impact on the economy‎, ‎society‎, ‎and health‎.