economic viability of solar systems in uzbekistan: a levelized cost of electricity-based approach

Uzbekistan’s growing solar potential and evolving energy needs call for informed assessments of photovoltaic (pv) system viability. this study evaluates the levelized cost of electricity (lcoe) for three pv configurations: grid-connected without storage (pvs1), grid-connected with storage (pvs2), and off-grid with storage (pvs3). a matlab-based model simulates each system under varied technical and economic conditions, including orientation (tilt, azimuth), albedo, and loan rates. in optimal scenarios, pvs1 achieves an lcoe as low as $25/mwh, comparable to uzbekistan’s current electricity tariffs ($0.024–$0.048/kwh). sensitivity analysis shows that loan rate and installation cost are the most influential factors, while the yield factor (yf) exhibits low sensitivity, supporting stable performance across irradiation levels. adding storage increases lcoe above $100/mwh under worst-case conditions, though cost parity with non-storage systems is possible under favorable assumptions. pvs3 is especially sensitive to battery life, storage cost, and energy accumulation share. optimizing tilt and azimuth, along with high-albedo surfaces, can reduce lcoe by up to 10%. overall, grid-connected pv systems offer competitive electricity pricing in uzbekistan, with clear optimization pathways. these results form a foundation for extending the model to hydrogen and water production systems in emerging markets.