الگوی کاهش مخاطرات کم‌آبی حوضۀ هیدرولوژیک دریاچۀ ارومیه از طریق سازگاری و مدیریت راهبردی

هدف اصلی این پژوهش، تدوین راهبرد و اولویت‌بندی راهبردهای مربوط به الگوهای سازگاری با کم‌آبی و خشکسالی در حوضۀ آبخیز دریاچۀ ارومیه با استفاده از روش swot و تکنیک qspm است. این تحقیق از نظر ماهیت کاربردی و از نظر روش مطالعه، توصیفی- تحلیلی محسوب می‌شود. بدین منظور با استفاده از داده‌های به‌دست‌آمده، ابعاد چهارگانۀ مدل swot مشخص شده و برپایۀ نتایج به‌دست‌آمده، راهبردهایی برای وضعیت‌های مختلف تعیین شد و در نهایت با استفاده از ماتریس برنامه‌ریزی کمّی qspm هر یک از راهبردها با استفاده از مولفه‌های چندگانه ارزیابی و سنجش شد. نتایج نمرۀ به‌دست‌آمده از ماتریس ارزیابی عوامل داخلی و خارجی به‌ترتیب 0/394 و 2/776 است. تحلیل همزمان ماتریس‌های عوامل داخلی و خارجی، وضعیت کلی راهبردهای در نظر گرفته‌شده برای الگوی سازگاری با کم‌آبی و خشکسالی را در حالت راهبرد‌های wo یعنی راهبردهای محافظه‌کارانه نشان داد. همچنین سنجش کمّی راهبردها نشان داد که از بین راهبردهای تدوین‌شده، اعمال مدیریت یکپارچه با اصلاح ساختار تقسیمات کشوری براساس طراحی و استقرار سامانۀ تصمیم‌یار مدیریت جامع حوضۀ آبخیز (wo1) و اعمال مدیریت اکوسیستم‌محور با استفاده از مطالعه و اجرای برنامۀ حفاظت اکولوژیک پارک ملی (wo2) با داشتن بیشترین نمره به‌ترتیب 6/36 و 5/59 دارای بیشترین جذابیت و راهبرد مناسب برای تدوین الگوی سازگاری با کم‌آبی و خشکسالی در حوزۀ مدیریت دریاچۀ ارومیه است. همچنین استقرار بازار آب از طریق ساماندهی چاه‌ها و نصب کنتورهای هوشمند حجمی، کمترین جذابیت را از نظر خبرگان داراست.

determining patterns of water scarcity and drought risk reduction of lake urmia basin through adaptation and strategic management

introduction lake urmia is one of the centers that has suffered a water shortage due to natural and man-made factors, and in case of lack of appropriate measures, apart from security problems, it can also impose exorbitant costs on the country. this issue requires more attention and conducting more comprehensive studies from various aspects, especially intelligent basin management and integrated studies of water and soil resources and the implementation of specialized and timely programs for the supply of agricultural, drinking and industrial water. investigations carried out during the last two decades show that the water level of lake urmia has decreased by more than eight meters and its area has decreased by more than 80% and has been subjected to complete drying (shadkam, 2017). currently, the water level of lake urmia is 1271 meters above sea level, the volume of water is 3 billion cubic meters and its area is between 2500 and 3000 square kilometers, and to reach the water level of 1274 meters and an area of ​​4300 square kilometers, it needs 14 billion cubic meters of water. also, in order to reach the ideal water level, i.e. 1276 meters and an area of ​​5700 square kilometers, the volume of water should increase to 30 billion cubic meters (asri and ahmadi, 2018). also, the drying of this lake can have a great impact on the life of the population living in the basin, the organisations inside the lake basin. agriculture and economy of the region, climate change in the region and  proper management of water resources and accurate knowledge of water balance components are of particular importance (abdali et al., 2018). since the drying up of this lake can have a great impact on the life of the population living in the basin, the organisms inside the lake, agriculture and economy of the region, climate change in the region and even political adversities, therefore it is necessary to apply proper management in order to adapt to the existing conditions and carry out basic planning. is inevitable (fazli, 2014). therefore, the main reason for the lack of water and the drying up of lake urmia is the lack of foresight and long-term planning, and more importantly, the lack of discipline in the management and guidance of operational plans at the basin level (mahdavi damghani, 2019). basically, strategic management includes 3 stages of strategy setting, strategy implementation and strategy evaluation, which the qspm matrix (quantitative strategic planning matrix) is proportional to the first stage, that is, strategy setting. swot analysis includes the systematic identification of factors with which the strategy should have the best compatibility. the logic of the mentioned approach is that an effective strategy should maximize the strengths and opportunities of the system and minimize the weaknesses and threats. if this logic is used correctly, it will have very good results for choosing and designing an effective strategy (zangiabadi and mousavi, 2012). in 1989, johnson et al., in a study, introduced swot as a tool used in the early stages of decision making. this matrix is ​​effective in implementing development plans if specific goals and required indicators are available (johnson et al., 1990). in this research, it is tried to determine the management strategies of urmia lake basin in order to adapt to water shortage and drought in the process of comprehensive basin management using strategic management models (swot and qspm). therefore, it is necessary to first identify the strengths and weaknesses, as well as the opportunities and threats of the basin, and then determine the practical strategies, and after analyzing them, using the qspm model, prioritize strategies to modify or complete the plans. in progress, he suggested to the relevant officials. quantitative strategic planning matrix qspm is an analytical method that determines the relative attractiveness of strategies.