سنجش و تحلیل ظرفیت سازگاری جوامع محلی به مخاطرات اقلیمی (منطقۀ تحقیق: روستاهای سفیدبرگ و بیوندسفلی، شهرستان جوانرود)

کشورهای در حال توسعه به‌شدت در برابر مخاطرات اقلیمی آسیب‌پذیرند. تغییرات جهانی الگوها و رویدادهای اقلیمی، کیفیت و دسترسی به منابع طبیعی را تغییر می‌دهد. این وضعیت تاثیر گسترده‌ای بر نظام‌های اجتماعی و اقتصادی آنها دارد که تهدیدی برای جوامع امروز و نسل‌های آینده قلمداد می‌شود. جوامع روستایی از جمله بخش‌هایی است که بسیار تحت تاثیر نوسان‌ها و مخاطرات اقلیمی است، که برای حفاظت از معیشت خود در مقابل تاثیرات نوسان‌ها و مخاطرات اقلیمی نیازمند اعمال سازگارانه اند که برای مقابله و سازگاری با آنها، به فهم و شناخت علمی نیاز است. در این زمینه این پژوهش با هدف بررسی ظرفیت سازگاری و مولفه‌های آن به مخاطرات اقلیمی در دو روستای سفیدبرگ و بیوندسفلی با استفاده از رویکرد شاخص ترکیبی با روش توصیفی تحلیلی مبنی بر داده‌های پرسشنامه انجام گرفت. متغیرهای واردشده در این تحقیق شامل ویژگی‌های فردی و شاخص‌های ظرفیت سازگاری به مخاطرات اقلیمی شامل عوامل اقتصادی، اجتماعی، زیرساخت، دانش فردی و دولت است. میزان تاثیرگذاری هر یک از مولفه‌ها و تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌های گردآوری‌شده با استفاده از روش‌های آماری پردازش شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که اجتماعات محلی روستای بیوندسفلی با میانگین 2.33 و روستای سفیدبرگ با میانگین 2.88 کمتر از میانگین متوسط ظرفیت سازگاری (3) است و ظرفیت‌ سازگاری اندکی در مواجهه با مخاطرات اقلیمی دارند. ظرفیت سازگاری کم دو روستای مذکور به‌طور مستقیم با مولفه‌های اقتصادی، اجتماعی، زیرساخت، دانش فردی و دولت ارتباط دارد. مولفۀ زیرساخت بیشترین ظرفیت سازگاری را داراست و مولفه‌های اقتصادی، اجتماعی، دانش فردی و دولت ظرفیت سازگاری کمی دارند. بنابراین برای ارتقا و بهبود وضعیت ظرفیت سازگاری جوامع در مولفه‌های اقتصادی، اجتماعی، دانش فردی و دولت باید توجه ویژه‌ای شود. آگاهی قبلی سازمان‌های مرتبط از عوامل موثر بر ظرفیت سازگاری و اتخاذ سیاست‌های حمایتی می‌تواند افزایش ظرفیت سازگاری در برنامه‌ریزی راهبردهای تغییر مدیریت را امکان‌پذیر کند.

Evaluation and Analyses of Adaptation Capacity of Local Communities to Climate Hazards (Study Area: Sefidbarg and Bivandsofla Villages, Javanroud County)

IntroductionCapacity building reflects the ability of a region or community to cope with growth and versus change [7]. The ability of individuals to adapt to emerging climate hazards is one of the most important features to consider when considering climate risks. Global changes in climate patterns and events alter the quality and access to natural resources. This leads to a widespread impact on their social and economic systems [4]. This study examines the adaptation capacity to local climate hazards in Javanroud county located west of Iran.Materials and methodsThis research is applied in terms of nature and has been done by descriptiveanalytical method based on questionnaire data to assess the adaptation capacity of local communities. In this study, climate hazards adaptation capacity indices including economic, social, infrastructure, personal knowledge, and government factors were studied. The population of the study area consisted of the local communities of two villages Sefidbarg and Bivandsofla in Javanroud county with 60 respondents, which were selected randomly. The questionnaire has been developed in five sections: economy, social, infrastructure, individual knowledge and government. The scores of each index were determined based on the Likert scale (05). Then, the effect of each of the components of adaptive capacity and data analysis of data collected using statistical techniques in SPSS software. In order to determine the validity of the data collection tool, the questionnaire was evaluated by the professors of Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran. In addition, Cronbach’s alpha coefficient was used to measure internal consistency (reliability) between the indices.Result and discussionAccording to the survey extracted from the questionnaire, the adaptive capacity of each component in the target communities indicates that the amount of adaptation capacity of the components in the two villages is different. Examination of the means showed that the components of economics, social, individual knowledge and government with numerical values of 2.57, 2.20, 2.72 and 2.33 were lower than the average of adaptation capacity (3) respectively. In addition, the infrastructure component with average value of 3.21 has higher average compatibility capacity. Adaptation capacity in the village of Bivandsofla with a mean of 2.33 has more inappropriate than the village of Sefidbarg with a value of 2.88. The average adaptive capacity of local communities in the two villages of Sefidbarg and Bivandsofla is 2.60, which indicates that local communities in the study area have low adaptive capacity facing with the climate hazards.According to the results of the Friedman test in the village of Sefidbarg, we found that the components of adaptive capacity have been evaluated as desirable. Component analysis shows that infrastructure component with 4.12 in the first place, economic component with 2.98 in the second place, personal knowledge component with 2.92 in the third place, government component with 2.68 in the fourth place while the social component ranks fifth (last). The components of adaptive capacity have also been evaluated in the village of Bivandsofla. In this regard, Friedman test results show that the infrastructure component with 4.78 in the first place, the individual knowledge component with 3.57 in the second place, the economic component with 2.88 in the third place, the government component with 1.95 in the fourth place and social component in the fifth place. The significance level of the Friedman test is 0.0001, indicating that the components under study are significantly different in terms of adaptive capacity. In addition, the results of MannWhitney test showed that according to the absolute value of Z statistic the components of 0.860 and personal knowledge of 1.553 are less than 1.99. So, H0 is accepted as the two components in the Sefidbarg, and Bivandsofla villages had no significant difference and the absolute values of economic, social and government components are 4.839, 4.408, and 4.527, respectively. They are above 1.99, which indicating the importance of these components. Regarding the significant level, we observe that the infrastructure and knowledge components are not significant with the levels of 0.39 and 0.12, respectively. In the economic, social, and government components, the level of significance is less than 0.05, which means that the mean of adaptation capacity of these components is significant in the region, which can be stated that the economic, social and government components are different in terms of adaptation capacity in the two studied villages.ConclusionDeveloping countries are severely vulnerable to climate hazards, and climate hazards are increasing the magnitude and severity of severe weather events and extremes weather. Adaptation to climate hazards depends on the current adaptation capacity and development models pursued by developing countries [6]. Climate hazards has increased food shortages, social unrest, local conflicts and even wars. The common goal of adaptation analysis is to estimate how the impact of climate hazards can be reduced or compensated by the ability to adapt to affect [3]. Effective factors affect the adaptation capacity of communities, countries, and communities their willingness or ability to adapt. These factors determine the capacity to adapt to economic, social, institutional, and technological conditions that include facilitating or limiting the development and expansion of adaptation measures [1]. Therefore, adaptation is a precautionary action and it is important to reduce the impacts of climate hazards and to use the potentials and benefits of communities [2].The results of the adaptation of local communities of the two villages Sefidbarg and Bivandsofla indicate that the local communities of Bivandsofla with a mean of 2.33 and Sefidbarg village with a mean of 2.88 have a low adaptation capacity in the face of climate change. The low adaptive capacity of the two villages has directly related to economic, social, infrastructure, personal knowledge and government components. In addition, the two mentioned villages have the highest adaptation capacity in terms of infrastructure component and the economic, social, individual knowledge and government components have low level of adaptation capacity. Therefore, it is necessary to pay special attention to promote and improve the economic, social, personal knowledge and government status. Our research has shown that awareness of climate hazards is associated with an increased adaptive capacity. The climate hazards awareness is a valuable investment for industry planning and climate change risk management [5]. Also, providing supportive policies in the economic, social, individual knowledge and government sectors by organizations related to rural communities and job creation and also creating new job opportunities in rural communities can increase their capacity to adapt to climate hazards and potential damages in the future.