تحلیل مسائل گردشگری شهری در پیشران‌های آینده کلان‌شهر شیراز مواجهه با بیماری‌های واگیردار و کووید 19

فعالیت گردشگری یک صنعت جهانی می‌باشد و به‌این‌ترتیب در معرض خطرات جهانی است. کووید 19 و گردشگری به‌طور پیچیده‌ای به هم مرتبط شده‌اند. گردشگران از آن دسته کسانی بودند که در مراحل آغازین شیوع بیماری، بیشترین آسیب را به خود دیده بودند. آن‌ها به ناقل این بیماری تبدیل شدند و درنهایت مسافرت و گردشگری خود قربانیان این بیماری شدند. در قرن بیست و یکم، دو عامل محرک تغییر در صنعت گردشگری، تغییرات آب‌وهوا و فوریت‌های بهداشت جهانی است. توجه سریع به این رویداد و آینده سفر و گردشگری در دنیایی که شیوع بیماری و همه‌گیری‌ها به‌طور فزاینده‌ای به دلیل افزایش سفر و سهولت دسترسی به مقاصد در سراسر جهان به‌طور فزاینده‌ای موردتوجه قرار می‌گیرد، لازم است. پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی، از حیث روش پیمایشی در سطح اکتشافی و مبتنی بر رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی صورت گرفته است. در این پژوهش با استفاده از روش دلفی و مشارکت 34 نفر متخصص نتایج در محیط نرم‌افزار میک مک تحلیل شد و سپس این عوامل بر اساس میزان اهمیت و عدم قطعیت، اولویت‌بندی و حیاتی‌ترین عوامل مشخص، و برای شناسایی پیشران‌های کلیدی از نرم‌افزار (micmac) استفاده‌شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد از بین 36 متغیر موثر کشف‌شده در وضعیت آینده گردشگری شیراز 10 متغیر به‌عنوان پیشران حیاتی مشخص شدند. نتایج حاکی از آن است که پیشران کلیدی عدم انتشار آمار بروز مبتلایان به کووید 19 با امتیاز 92، دارای بیشترین ضریب تاثیرگذاری بر دیگر متغیرها بوده است. همچنین پیشران‌های نبود برنامه واحد برای مقابله با این بحران، همکاری شهرداری برای نظارت بیشتر بر بهداشت اماکن و فضاهای عمومی، در دستور کار قرار دادن توسعه سیاست‌های شهر سالم به‌عنوان دیگر پیشران‌های کلیدی گردشگری و موانع بهبود وضعیت گردشگری در هنگام رخ دادن بیماری‌های واگیردار در کلان‌شهر شیراز شناسایی شدند.

analysis of urban tourism issues in the future drivers of shiraz metropolis’ exposure to infectious diseases and covid-19

tourism activity is a global industry, and thus it is exposed to global risks. covid-19 and tourism are intricately connected. tourists were among those who suffered the most damage in the initial stages of the disease outbreak. they became carriers of this disease and eventually became victims of travel and tourism. in the 21st century, the two driving factors for change in the tourism industry are climate change and global health emergencies. urgent attention to this event and the future of travel and tourism is necessary in a world where disease outbreaks and epidemics are increasingly being considered due to increased travel and ease of access to destinations worldwide. concerning practical purpose, the present research has been carried out using the survey method at the exploratory level based on the future research approach. in this research, using the delphi method and the participation of 34 experts, the results were analyzed in the mic mac software environment. then these factors were determined based on the degree of importance and uncertainty, prioritization, and the most critical factors to identify the drivers. a key from the software (mic mac) is used. the results show that ten variables were identified as vital drivers among the 36 effective variables discovered in the future state of shiraz tourism. the results indicate that the key driver of the non-publication of the statistics on the incidence of covid-19 with a score of 92 has the highest impact factor on other variables. also, the lack of a single plan to deal with this crisis is the municipality’s cooperation to monitor health more. public places and spaces were identified in the agenda of the development of healthy city policies as other key drivers of tourism and obstacles to improving the tourism situation during the occurrence of infectious diseases in shiraz metropolisextended abstractintroductioninternational travel has developed exponentially in the last few decades, and at the same time, diseases have increased their geographic spread under the influence of ecological, genetic and human factors. currently, the increasing number of viruses, epidemics and pandemics are some of the most negative consequences of globalization, which cause deaths and significant economic losses due to its negative effects on the tourism industry, it shows one of the most affected sectors of health.  the city of shiraz has been known as the medical pole of the south of the country for many years and hosts thousands of foreign patients every year. also, having experienced and well-known doctors and paramedics at the level of the country, being close to the persian gulf countries, and numerous tourist attractions and suitable weather requires proper and efficient management to prevent injuries caused by infectious diseases. both in the urban community itself and the arrival of tourists to this city. in this research, we aim to measure the resilience of urban tourism in shiraz metropolis when faced with epidemic diseases and with a future-research approach to identify key factors and drivers effective in the future situation. let’s pay attention to the tourism resilience of this city. therefore, it will be necessary to identify the key drivers of shaping the resilience of tourism when faced with epidemic and contagious diseases. in this regard, the following question is raised: what are the key drivers affecting the tourism situation of shiraz metropolis when faced with the epidemic diseases of future fertility? methodologythe current research is descriptive-analytical and exploratory. from this point of view, it is an exploration that does not seek to confirm or reject the relationship between two variables, and its purpose is not to test a hypothesis, but to identify the driving forces that affect the future of tourism in shiraz metropolis.