شناخت و ارزیابی پیشران‌های حیاتی موثر بر آینده توسعه گردشگری مطالعه موردی: کلان‌شهر تبریز

کشور ایران از مناطق پراستعداد در صنعت گردشگری به شمار می‌رود و جاذبه‌های فراوان طبیعی، تاریخی و فرهنگی آن زبانزد خاص و عام است. ولی مشکلات متعدد باعث شده علی‌رغم وجود چنین استعدادهایی سهم کشورمان از درآمدهای صنعت گردشگری بسیار ناچیز باشد. با توجه به خودگردان بودن شهرداری کلان‌شهر تبریز و ناپایداری منابع درآمدی آن تقویت اقتصاد گردشگری شهری از مهم‌ترین و ضروری‌ترین راهبردهای توسعه شهر تبریز است تا علاوه بر رشد اقتصادی شهر بتوان شهر تبریز را به‌عنوان یک شهر جهانی بااستعدادهای فراوان تاریخی و طبیعی معرفی کرد. جهت خروج از این شرایط و بهبود وضعیت گردشگری این کلان‌شهر باید یک برنامه راهبردی بر اساس واقعیات و آینده‌های پیش روی این شهر تهیه شود که اولین قدم در این مسیر شناسایی پیشران‌های حیاتی موثر بر توسعه گردشگری در این شهر است. این مقاله با استفاده از روش‌های دلفی و تحلیل اثرات متقاطع و استفاده از نرم‌افزار میک مک به کشف و شناخت این پیشران‌ها پرداخته است. این تحقیق ازلحاظ هدف توصیفی – تبینی و ازلحاظ کاربست نتایج کاربردی است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد از بین 38 شاخص موثر کشف‌شده در توسعه گردشگری شهری تبریز 10 شاخص به‌عنوان پیشران حیاتی مشخص شدند. در بین پیشران‌های کشف‌شده پیشران فرهنگ با امتیاز 1107 بالاترین و پیشران تبلیغات با امتیاز 695 کمترین امتیاز را کسب کرده‌اند. به‌صورت کلی می‌توان گفت وضعیت تحقق پیشران‌های کشف‌شده در شهر تبریز وضعیت مطلوبی نیست و در صورت توجه به این پیشران‌ها و اجرای راهبردهای متناسب با این پیشران‌ها می‌توان آینده مطلوبی برای توسعه آتی گردشگری شهر تبریز متصور شد.

Recognition and Evaluation of Effective Vital Drivers on the Future of Tourism Development in Iran's Metropolises Case Study: Tabriz Metropolis

Extended Abstract Introduction Today, the tourism industry is considered as one of the appropriate tools and strategies to earn income and prosperity of the economy of governments and nations on the one hand and the development and prosperity of regions in different parts of the world on the other hand; in a way, this industry is the third dynamic and developing economic phenomenon after the oil and automobile industries. Iran is also one of the most talented regions in this field and its many natural, historical and cultural attractions are wellknown in general and in particular. In the meantime, one of these important and fundamental issues that play an essential role in the economic development of cities and villages and can improve the economic growth and quality of life of people by foresight and scenario design, is the development of the tourism industry. The existence of various cultural, historical and natural talents for Tabriz city along with important tourism events such as Tabriz 2018 and the strong dependence of the urban economy on the tourism economy on the one hand and the complexity of tourism issues on the other makes serious research in tourism trends and urban tourism future research should be done to determine how these many talents of Tabriz can be used to promote its tourism. In addition, due to the autonomy of Tabriz metropolitan municipality and the instability of its revenue sources, strengthening the urban tourism economy is necessary and the most important strategies for the development of Tabriz is that besides the economic growth of the city, it can be introduced as a global city with many historical and natural talents.   Methodology  The main purpose of this research is to improve the economic conditions of Tabriz city through the promotion of tourism, so this research can be considered as an applied study in terms of purpose because the results of this research can be exerted in urban tourism management systems. In terms of method, this research is the descriptiveanalytical one. The main method used in this research is a variety of common methods of future researches. The work process consists of two general stages. In the first stage, using Delphi technique and questionnaire tools, effective factors and indicators on the development of Tabriz urban tourism were identified. In the second stage, through structural analysis method and Micmac software, effective factors were evaluated and analyzed and finally key factors were identified. Results and discussion Based on the Delphi method mentioned, 38 variables in 6 areas have been identified as effective factors on the development of urban tourism in Tabriz metropolis and then, using the interaction analysis method by MICMAC software to extract the main factors affecting the future of Tabriz city; were analyzed. According to the questionnaire, which is completed as a matrix, the software calculates their relationship and finally considers a numerical point for each factor. Then, based on this score, it ranks the factors directly and indirectly based on its impact and effectiveness. In the MICMAC diagram, first, the status of the factors involved in the development of urban tourism in Tabriz metropolis was examined and the system was analyzed in general. According to previous discussions, 38 factors were identified and their effects were weighed. Finally, 10 factors were extracted as key drivers of urban tourism development in Tabriz metropolis, all of which were repeated in both direct and indirect methods.   Conclusions In this research, using the Delphi method, after surveying the relevant experts in urban tourism, the factors and variables involved in tourism have been extracted, and after weighing according to the experts, in Mic Mac structural software, the driving factors for future development of Tabriz urban tourism has been identified. Therefore, the development of tourism in Tabriz for the current and future situation requires considering these key factors in planning. For the tourism development in Tabriz, all the factors involved, such as a system with elements intertwined, and as a structure, are considered, and the relationships of these factors are measured and the top factors that are more effective are extracted. Thus, culture, urban regeneration, climate, transportation infrastructure, architectural landmarks, mass communication infrastructure (Internet), public education, tourism development plans, regulations and incentive policies, and Tourism advertisements on virtual pages are among the key and important factors for the development of tourism in Tabriz.