تدوین سناریوهای موثر بر توسعه گردشگری با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری مطالعه موردی: استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد

امروزه، توسعه صنعت گردشگری به‌عنوان یکی از راه‌های مهم دستیابی به رشد و توسعه در دنیا محسوب می‌شود و جوامع مختلف به این مقوله به‌عنوان یکی از عوامل مهم درآمدزا توجه داشته و بسیاری از برنامه‌های خود را بر این اساس پایه‌گذاری کرده‌اند. هدف از این مقاله تدوین سناریوهای موثر بر توسعه گردشگری استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری می‌باشد. پژوهش حاضر ازنظر هدف کاربردی، از حیث روش ترکیبی از روش‌های اسنادی و پیمایشی در سطح اکتشافی و مبتنی بر رویکرد آینده‌نگاری و سناریونویسی است که با به‌کارگیری ترکیبی از مدل‌های کمی و کیفی صورت گرفته است. روش جمع‌آوری اطلاعات مطالعات کتابخانه‌ای و میدانی است. جامعه آماری این پژوهش شامل خبرگان و متخصصان در موضوع مربوطه می‌باشند که علاوه بر حوزه تخصصی خود از شناخت کافی نسبت به منطقه موردمطالعه نیز برخوردار هستند. روش نمونه‌گیری در این پژوهش نیز مبتنی بر روش غیر احتمالی و از نوع هدفمند است. در این پژوهش از روش‌های تحلیل ساختاری، سناریو نگاری و تکنیک دلفی استفاده‌شده است. نرم‌افزارهای مورداستفاده در این پژوهش نرم‌افزار scenario wizard و mic mac می‌باشد. بر اساس نتایج مدل تحلیل ساختاری از میان 40 شاخص موردبررسی، 12 شاخص به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین شاخص‌های تاثیرگذار بر توسعه گردشگری استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد انتخاب شد. نتایج نهایی هم نشان داد که 5 سناریو با سازگاری قوی و محتمل پیش روی توسعه گردشگری استان قرار دارد. درمجموع 5 سناریوی قوی پیش روی توسعه گردشگری استان، بیشتر سناریوها در وضعیت مطلوب قرارگرفته‌اند که این نشان‌دهنده وضعیت امیدوارکننده برای توسعه گردشگری استان است.

Codification Effective Scenarios on Tourism Development with a Perspective Approach (Case Study: Kohgiluyeh and BoyerAhmad Province (

IntroductionTourism is one of the most important sectors of the economy that has been considered as a clean industry and, while increasing foreign exchange earnings, has helped the national economy to generate employment and revenue. As a leading industry, it has played an important role in the development of a range of other industries, notably hospitality, domestic and international transportation, and handicrafts. Due to the fact that Kohgiluyeh and BoyerAhmad is one of the provinces with diverse potential and climatic conditions for attracting domestic and foreign tourists and according to the importance of tourism industry and its incomes, the need to pay attention to it must be on the agenda. The existence of tourist attractions in the historical, cultural and natural attractions fields in Kohgiluyeh and BoyerAhmad province can be the basis for the growth and development of various economic, environmental, social and improve the quality of life of the people in the province. However, the tourism industry in Kohgiluyeh and BoyerAhmad province has not received much attention and the available statistics show the weakness and lack of proper planning and management of this industry in the province. Therefore, the present study attempts to identify the key factors and major drivers involved in tourism development in the province and then, by designing the most desirable and feasible scenarios in the future, provide a flexible policy and appropriate planning to the region. It also enables the development of tourism industry in Kohgiluyeh and BoyerAhmad Province, utilizing strategic and forwardlooking management approaches and relying on scenariobased planning models. MethodologyThe type of research based on purpose is applieddevelopmental and in terms of nature and method, it is analyticalexploratory. The method of collecting information was based on library studies (taking notes and documentation) and field studies (questionnaire and interview). The studied Statistical population included experts and specialists in the relevant subject who were selected by using of nonprobability and purposeful sampling. Structural analysis, scenario writing and Delphi technique have been used in this study and also Scenario Wizard and MIC MAC software programs have been applied. In this study, 25 individuals were selected as the sample of the statistical population of experts. Finally, based on their frequency of their response in each paired matrix houses, a general questionnaire for structural modeling was prepared. After the structural analysis model, 25 experts were interviewed. The type of interview was a semistructured one in which all respondents were asked similar questions and the researcher has been responsible for encrypting the answers and classifying them. Results and Discussion Based on the results of data analysis via structural analysis model and MIC MAC software, out of 40 indices, 12 indices were selected as the most important ones that affecting tourism development of Kohgiluyeh and BoyerAhmad province.Among the 12 key indicators affecting the system, there are eight indicators from the planning and management variable, three indicators of service variable, and one index of the economic variable group that the results indicated a significant difference between the planning and management variables with the other studied ones.Wizard scenario software results also showed that five scenarios with strong adaptation and 541 scenarios with poor adaptation are facing the province tourism development. In total of five major scenarios for the tourism development of the province, most of the scenarios were in desirable situation, which indicates a promising condition for the tourism development of province. ConclusionThe results of the study showed that five scenarios with strong adaptation and 541 scenarios with poor adaptation are facing tourism development of Kohgiluyeh and BoyerAhmad province. Out of 5 strong scenarios for tourism development in the province, most of the scenarios were in desirable condition that indicates a promising situation for tourism development of the study area. From the 60 possible scenarios in strong ones, 47% (28) had a desirable situation, 33% (20) had a relatively favorable situation, and 20% had a critical situation. Among the strong adaptation scenarios, scenario number one included the best situation for the future of province’s tourism development. Scenario two and three were next, considering both the future situation and the current trend for the province’s tourism development. Scenario four considered most of the current trend for tourism development of the province and was in a relatively favorable position. The next and final stage belonged to scenario five, which includes critical situations for the tourism development of the province.According to the results of the research, the most important strategy for tourism development in Kohgiluyeh and BoyerAhmad province can be selected based on competitiveness and programbased strategy.