بهینه‌سازی برنامۀ زراعی مجموعۀ کشت و صنعت خرمدره

اﻣﺮوزه، ﺑﻪوﯾﮋه در ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎی درﺣﺎلﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ، ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪﻫﺎی ﮐﺸﺖ و ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﺑﻪ دﻻﯾﻠﯽ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺖ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰی آﺳﺎنﺗﺮ، اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻏﺬا، ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻫﺰﯾﻨﮥ ﻣﺼﺮفﮐﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎن، ﺗﺸﻮﯾﻖ ﻧﻮآوری و ﺗﻮﺳﻌﮥ ﻓﻨﺎوراﻧﻪ، اﯾﺠﺎد ﻓﺮﺻﺖﻫﺎی ﺷﻐﻠﯽ و اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺑﺎزة دﺳﺘﺮﺳﯽ ﺑﻪ ﻏﺬا، ﻧﻘﺶ ﻣﻬﻤﯽ در اﻣﻨﯿﺖ ﻏﺬاﯾﯽ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ اﯾﻔﺎ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﻨﺪ. ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﺎ ﻫﺪف اراﺋﻪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﮥ ﮐﺸﺖ ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ ﮐﻤﯿﻨﻪﺳﺎزی ﻣﺼﺮف آب و ﺑﯿﺸﯿﻨﻪﺳﺎزی درآﻣﺪ ﺑﺨﺶ زراﻋﺖ ﻣﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﮐﺸﺖ و ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﺧﺮﻣﺪره ﺑﻪ وﺳﻌﺖ 1262 ﻫﮑﺘﺎر واﻗﻊ در اﺳﺘﺎن زﻧﺠﺎن، اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪ. ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪوﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ دادهﻫﺎی اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﺳﺮی زﻣﺎﻧﯽ 1390-99 ﻣﺮﺑﻮط ﺑﻪ ﮔﯿﺎﻫﺎن زراﻋﯽ آﺑﯽ ﮐﺸﺖﺷﺪه در اﯾﻦ واﺣﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪی ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﮔﻨﺪم، ﺟﻮ، ذرت، ﮐﻠﺰا و ﯾﻮﻧﺠﻪ، از روش ﺣﺪاﻗﻞ ﻣﺮﺑﻌﺎت ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻟﯽ ﺑﺴﻂ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﭘﯿﮑﺎﻧﯽ در ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار ﻟﯿﻨﮕﻮ ﻧﺴﺨﮥ 18/0 اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪ. ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ، ﺳﻄﺢ زﯾﺮﮐﺸﺖ ﻣﺤﺼﻮل ﺟﻮ 118/18 درﺻﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺖ. ﺑﺮﺧﻼف آن، ﺳﻄﺢ زﯾﺮﮐﺸﺖ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﮔﻨﺪم، ﮐﻠﺰا، ذرت ﻋﻠﻮﻓﻪای و ﯾﻮﻧﺠﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ 33/33، 73/19، 34/79 و 20/44 درﺻﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺖ. در ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﮥ ﮐﺸﺖ ﺑﻬﯿﻨﻪﺳﺎزیﺷﺪة اﯾﻦ واﺣﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪی، ﺑﻪرﻏﻢ ﺛﺒﺎت ﻧﺴﺒﯽ درآﻣﺪ ﺧﺎﻟﺺ 0/09+ درﺻﺪ ، ﮐﻞ ﺳﻄﺢ زﯾﺮﮐﺸﺖ ﺑﺨﺶ زراﻋﯽ 25/87- درﺻﺪ ، ﻣﻘﺪار ﻣﺼﺮف آب 25/32- درﺻﺪ ، ﺳﺎﻋﺖ ﮐﺎر ﻣﺎﺷﯿﻦﻫﺎ 25/70- درﺻﺪ ، ﺗﻌﺪاد ﻧﯿﺮوی ﮐﺎر 25/87- درﺻﺪ ، ﻣﯿﺰان ﮐﻮدﻫﺎ 30/50- درﺻﺪ و ﺳﻤﻮم ﮐﺸﺎورزی 39/45- درﺻﺪ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﻓﻌﻠﯽ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﯽﯾﺎﺑﺪ. در اﯾﻦ ﻣﺪل ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰی، ﻫﯿﭻ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻟﯽ از ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﮥ ﮐﺸﺖ زراﻋﯽ ﺣﺬف ﻧﺸﺪ. ﺑﺮای ﻫﻤﯿﻦ، ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽﻫﺎی آن واﻗﻊﺑﯿﻨﺎﻧﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﯽرﺳﺪ.

optimization of cropping pattern at khorramdarreh agro-industrial complex

nowadays, agro-industrial complexes play an important role in food security, especially in developing countries, due to their advantages such as facilitatingplanning, increasing food production, reducing consumer costs, encouraging innovation and technological development, creating job opportunities, and enhancing food availability. the current study was performed to develop a cultivation program that would minimize water consumption and maximize incomeat khorramdareh agro-industrial complex covering an area of 1262 ha in zanjan province. the ordinary least squares method pols due to peykani was used inlingo v.18 to analyze the economic data sets the 2100-2020 time series on irrigated crops including wheat, barley, corn, canola, and alfalfa at the complexunder study. the results indicated an increase of 118.18% in the area under barleycultivation. in contrast, the areas under wheat, canola, maize, and alfalfacultivations decreased by 33.33%, 73.19%, 34.79%, and 20.44%, respectively. itwas also found that the optimized cropping pattern developed for the complexwould decrease the total cultivated area by 25.87% , water consumption 25.32% ,machine working hours 25.70% , labor 25.87% , as well as fertilizer 30.50% and pesticide 39.45% consumptions compared to those measured for the currentcropping pattern although the current net income would remain almost invariable showing an increase of only +0.09% while no crop would be removed from thecurrent pattern. it was, therefore, concluded that the estimations seemed realistic.