بررسی و تحلیل تهدیدهای سیاسی، امنیتی و دفاعی در استان البرز با رویکرد آمایش سرزمین

تهدیدهای امنیتی و دفاعی از ابعاد اصلی تهدید علیه واحدهای سیاسی محسوب می‌شوند. به لحاظ کارکردهای ویژه‌ای که امنیت و دفاع در واحدهای سیاسی دارند، تهدیدهایی ازاین‌دست می‌توانند نقش موثری در شکل‌گیری تصمیم‌های مختلف در این واحدها داشته باشند. بنابراین این پژوهش به دنبال شناسایی، بررسی و تحلیل، تهدید‌های امنیتیدفاعی آمایش سرزمین، سطح‌بندی شهرستان‌های استان البرز بر اساس این تهدیدها و گزینش راهکار‌های آمایش‌سرزمینی برای آنها می‌باشد. این تهدید‌ها از طریق مطالعات اسنادی، پیمایشی و مصاحبه‌ای گردآوری شده‌اند. سپس با نخبان جهت پایایی پرسشنامه‌، رتبه دهی به هرکدام از شهرستان‌ها از لحاظ تهدیدهای موجود و انتخاب راهکارها مصاحبه به عمل آمده است. به‌منظور رتبه‌بندی شهرستان‌های مختلف استان البرز از لحاظ تهدید‌های موجود، مدل ویکور را به کار گرفته است. همچنین برای وزن‌دهی شاخص‌ها در مدل ویکور از آنتروپی شانون استفاده شده است. از نتایج این پژوهش چنین بر می‌آید که در بین شهرستان‌های استان البرز شهرستان کرج به عنوان مرکز استان دارای بیشترین تهدید‌های سیاسی، امنیتی و دفاعی است. مهم‌ترین دلیل تمرکز تهدید‌ها در کرج، می‌تواند تمرکز خدمات، امکانات و دسترسی‌های مختلف استانی در این شهرستان باشد. همچنین دیگر شهرستان‌ها به دلیل عدم ارائه خدمات مناسب و درخور جمعیت نیز دارای تهدیدهای گوناگون در گروه‌های مختلف می‌باشند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که از بین گروه‌های مختلف تهدید‌ها، تهدیدهای اقتصادی دارای بالاترین درصد اهمیت از لحاظ میزان تاثیرگذاری بر شهرستان‌های مختلف استان البرز است. بعد از تهدیدهای اقتصادی، تهدیدهای محیطی و زیست‌محیطی بیشترین اهمیت را در استان دارند. برای خروج استان به‌ویژه شهرستان کرج از وضعیت تهدیدزای موجود، در پایان به ارائه راهکار پرداخته ایم. یکی از مهم‌ترین راهکارهای آمایش‌سرزمینی برای کاستن از مسائل و مشکلات شهرستان‌های استان البرز، تمرکززدایی از کرج و ارائه امکانات و خدمات در دیگر شهرستان‌هاست.

An Analysis of Political, Security, and Defense Threats in Alborz Province Employing Spatial Planning Approach

Extended Abstract1. IntroductionRecently, inequalities are the fundamental problems for human society, as they are discussed in academic places and they cause governmental concerns, inequalities can risk national unity and social stability. Spatial planning is a set of coordinated and coherent knowledge, policies, techniques and operations that are used to eliminate inequalities and organize and regulate biological and geographical spaces (natural and unnatural). The concentration of facilities and services in the cities and provincial centers in recent decades has created regional inequalities in accessing to services and facilities; finally, it leads a decline in quality of life, income gaps and ultimately spatial injustice. Therefore, logical and credible analysis of the regions and areas is essential in order to achieve spatial justice and major economic development. Alborz province, as one of the centers for spatial distribution and deconcentrating of Tehran which is separated in 2010 from the province, is now involved in the intense spatial concentration in the provincial capital. There are various threats in this province that cover a wide range of issues. In this regard, one of the most important parts of spatial planning is the recognition of political, security and defensive threats in different provinces. This study surveys spatial distribution of services and facilities in different counties of Alborz province. Since good distribution of facilities and services in the regional and provincial levels lead to reduction of the security threats. This research also seeks to answer the fundamental question: What are the security and defensive threats of spatial planning in Alborz province?2. Theoretical FrameworkSecurity and defense are the most important foundations of development for each country, which are achieved through smart planning and good policies. In an overview, we can say that the most important goal of recent planning is to achieve development, especially sustainable development. Sustainable development does not have clear definition despite it is extensively used. For this reason, the development takes an available meaning only in case that it is considered in four economic, political, cultural and social areas. Therefore, attention to a range of key variables in different environmental, cultural, economic, social and political sectors is necessary in political, security and defensive studies. No attention to each of these sectors can cause irrepairable damage, for example, the lack of attention to environmental issues can lead to the creation of a Green Party and new environmental advocacy movements based on radical ideas such as extreme ecology, ecoanarchism and ecofeminism. Oriurdon (1989) states how societies are divided between two groups of people. A group that considers nature to be inherently exploitative and recoverable and another group that knows that human ability to destroy its environment is more than its ability to compensate. Therefore, providing development and accessing to various regional and provincial levels can equally serve a basis for policy advancement, security development, strengthening defensive capabilities and reducing regional inequalities that countries are taking along. Also, dealing with the issue of security and defense is one of the most important factors for development of the country.3. MethodologyThe present research is applicable in terms of its purpose and it has descriptiveanalytical and exploratory nature. Library materials, interviews and a questionnaire were used to collect data. In library studies, research related topics, including dissertations, articles, books and research projects have been used. Necessary indices for research have been extracted from library studies. Elite interviews were conducted to find out if the indices that were extracted from the library method adequately measured the existing threats in Alborz province. Each of the threats was selected by elite questionnaires. Also, a questionnaire with 76 indicators was used to measure the importance of each of the threats in the various counties of Alborz province. The number of respondants was 35 people. Also, purposeful sampling has been used to select experts. Vikor method has been used to analyze the indices. Then, the results are displayed by using the arc map 10.2 software.4. Discussion and FindingsProximity to Tehran as the capital of Iran and center of all sectors, services, facilities, employment, and so on is one of the most prominent features of Alborz province. Despite proximity to the capital leads to access of Alborz province to the various services, but this has caused a number of different problems. Being near to Tehran and KarajTehran subway line, being the province capital, easy access of Karaj residents to Tehran and many other problems have leaded Karaj to be the largest residential city in Iran compared to other sectors. It also has the most informal settlements. The huge difference in Karaj population with other counties of Alborz province has caused that more provincial budgets are allocated to Karaj, and industry and service sectors are also concentrated in Karaj. Proximity to the capital, the unreasonable concentration of population, facilities and services have exacerbated various political, security and defensive threats in Karaj. Finally, experts believe that establishing justice in the territory of the land and increasing the level of access in the poor counties by using different methods of spatial planning are the best ways to reduce the threats in Alborz province. Therefore, problems and challenges could be reduced by distributing facilities, services and accesses among different counties of Alborz Province, and also eliminating unemployment and low access to facilities in other counties.