تشدید تقابل گرایی ایالات متحده و جمهوری اسلامی ایران در پساناآرامی های غرب آسیا؛ پیامدهای ترور سرلشگر قاسم سلیمانی

اصولا ماهیت سیاست‎خارجی در ایالات‎متحده به‎ویژه در میان جمهوری‎خواهان مبتنی بر مواردی همچون پشتیبانی بی‌قید و شرط از رژیم اشغالگر قدس، تاکید بر جنگ با دشمنان، عدم‎تمایل به‎ تفاهم با رقبای سیاسی و نظامی ‎و کسب بیشینه منافع ایالات‎متحده در سایه ارعاب و تهدید می‎باشد. این مسئله در منطقۀ غرب آسیا به‎ویژه با افزایش روزافزون قدرت نظامی ‎سپاه پاسداران انقلاب‎اسلامی ‎در پساداعش و شکل‎گیری ائتلاف قدرتمند شیعیان در منطقه (به‎مثابه ‎محورت شرارت به‎زعم آمریکایی‌ها) مهمترین مانع تحقق منافع این کشور در منطقه تشدید می‎باشد. در این مقاله، تلاش نویسندگان ارائه پاسخی متقن به‎این سوال است: علت ترور سرلشگر سلیمانی، فرمانده نیروی قدس سپاه پاسداران انقلاب‎اسلامی ‎از سوی ترامپ چه بوده است؟ و در ادامه چه پیامدهای محتملی را برای آینده امنیت این منطقه می‎توان متصور بود؟ فرضیه مقاله که مبتنی بر تئوری مدل سیکلی بحران مایلس‌هاگ می‎باشد، دلالت بر این مسئله دارد که عقبه ‎تاریخی این بحران، گذشته از خصومت‌های تاریخی بعد از انقلاب‎اسلامی، به‎ دوران انعقاد قرارداد برنامه جامع اقدام مشترک یا برجام برمی‎گردد. مرحلۀ تکوین این بحران، به‎شکل‎گیری و قوام روزافزون جبهه مقاومت شیعیان در دوران ظهور داعش و پساداعش و اعمال تحریم‌های اقتصادی سنگین آمریکا علیه مسئولین سپاه در منطقه مربوط می‎گردد. در مرحله تقابل می‎توان به‎ چالش‌ها و تهدیدات نظامی‎ مستقیم و غیرمستقیم دو کشور علیه یکدیگر همچون قراردادن سپاه پاسداران در لیست گروه‌های تروریستی بین‌المللی اشاره کرد و در نهایت در مرحلۀ وساطت و میانجی‎گری می‎توان به‎فعالیت‌های میانجی‎گرایانه ژاپن اشاره نمود. یافته‌های مقاله نیز نشانگر این مسئله است که ناکامی‌های ترامپ در اقناع جمهوری اسلامی ‎به‎ انعقاد قراردادی جدید و نیاز به‎ یک دستاورد مهم برای موفقیت در انتخابات پیش و روی این کشور، در نهایت مبادرت به ‎ترور سردار سلیمانی، فرمانده نیروی قدس سپاه پاسداران انقلاب‎اسلامی ‎نمود. روش پژوهش این مقاله نیز مبتنی بر روش جامعه‌‌‌شناسی تاریخی و استفاده از منابع مکتوب و مجازی می‎باشد.

Escalation of Confrontation the United States and Islamic Republic of Iran in West Asian Post unrest; Consequences of the Assassination of Major General Qassem Soleimani

Extended AbstractIntroductionIn principle, the nature of foreign policy of the United States, especially among Republicans, is based on issues such as strong support for Israel, emphasis on fighting with enemies, unwillingness to compromise with political and military rivals, and the maximum interest of the United States in the shadow of intimidation and threats. This has posed a serious challenge in the West Asian region, especially with the growing strength of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the postISIS era and the formation of a powerful Shiite coalition. In this article, the authors attempt to provide an answer to this question: What was the cause of the assassination of Major General Ghassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps by Trump? And then what are the possible implications for the future of the region apos;s security? The paper apos;s hypothesis, based on Haug Miall apos;s cyclic model theory, implies that the historical backdrop of the crisis goes back to the time of concluding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, in addition to the historical hostilities after the Islamic Revolution. The stage of this crisis is related to the growing formation of the Shiite resistance front during the rise of ISIS and Post ISIS and the imposition of heavy US economic sanctions on the IRGC in the region. In the confrontation phase, the direct and indirect military challenges and threats of the two countries against each other such as placing the Revolutionary Guards on the list of international terrorist groups can be mentioned. And finally, in the mediation phase, we can mention Japan apos;s mediation activities.The paper apos;s findings also indicate that the failure of Trump apos;s policies at all stages, his impeachment of Democrats within the US political system, and ultimately the need for a major breakthrough to succeed in the upcoming election make him eventually to assassinat Major General Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Review of LiteratureThe Conflict Cycle Model was proposed by Miall Haug, in which several steps are considered for a crisis. This step is as follows:Crisis potential stage;Crisis Development Stage;Mediation and mediation of international and regional organizations and powers;Stage of collision and confrontation.MethodThe research method of this article is historical sociology.Findings and DiscussionIn the crisis potential stage: Trump believes that the jcpoa agreement has brought down the hegemony of the United States and has increased the power of Iran and the Revolutionary Guards. So he canceled the deal at this point;In Crisis Development Stage: Trump stressed the expansion of the Shiite sphere of influence in the Middle East and the threat of Shiites to Israel (which is a strategic ally of the United States in the Middle East) to create a crisis with the Revolutionary Guards;In Mediation and mediation of international and regional organizations and powers: In this Stage, Trump sent Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to Tehran to mediate between him and Islamic Republic officials So that he can create the conditions for a new agreement.In Stage of collision and confrontation: At this stage, Trump first placed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps under terrorist groups. Then, He imposed economic sanctions on this group and eventually, he threatened war and direct confrontation (sending warships to the Persian Gulf). Trump apos;s failure to persuade the Islamic Republic to sign a new treaty and the need for a major breakthrough to succeed in the upcoming election, He eventually assassinated Major General Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.ConclusionThe Islamic Republic of Iran has repeatedly challenged US hegemony in the Middle East and has sought to limit US influence. In fact, Iran has always defined the US presence in the region as a security challenge, not as a precursor to a regional security system. After the rise of ISIS, the Islamic Republic of Iran, especially the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, supported its strategic allies, Syria and Iraq. The support that continued to lay the groundwork for a deep Shiite coalition led to the relative decline of ISIS. This should be considered a great achievement for Iran, along with the formation of the Popular Mobilization Forces military in Iraq and Hezbollah in Syria, because the nature of these military groups is the same as the opposition to US policies. For this reason, the United States, after the fall of ISIS, considered Iraq and Syria as a kind of loser, and its main analysis was based on the extensive influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in these countries and some other Middle Eastern countries such as Yemen and Afghanistan. As a result, Trump, while placing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps under international terrorist groups, eventually assassinated Major General Soleimani and Abu Mahdi alMohandes so that he would not see his interests lost in these countries any more. Trump apos;s terrorist act could pose a major security, economic and military challenge to the United States and its allies in the Middle East. An action that will face strong Shiites reactions in the nottoodistant future.