تحلیل عوامل موثر بر الگوی فضایی مشارکت سیاسی در انتخابات شورای‎شهر (مورد مطالعه: قائمشهر)

بررسی آرا نامزدهای انتخاباتی و عوامل موثر بر آن یکی از موضوعات مطرح در جغرافیای انتخابات است. تصمیم سیاسی رای دهندگان در مناطق مختلف و شناسایی عوامل موثر بر آن را میتوان در قالب تحلیل الگوی فضایی مشارکت سیاسی مورد مطالعه قرار داد. روش پژوهش توصیفی– تحلیلی است و تحلیل های فضایی براساس نتایج دو دوره اخیر انتخابات شورای شهر در سالهای 1392 و 1396 انجام شده است. یافته های پژوهش نشان میدهد، جمعیت واجدشرایط قائمشهر در 5 دورۀ اخیر افزایشقابل توجهی داشته، اما میدان مشارکت مردم و نسبت آرای منتخبین به کل روبه کاهش بوده است. طبق نتایج، الگوی مشارکت گروه سنی 98 تا 44 سال بیشتر از سایر گروههای سنی به الگوی توزیع فضاییآرا نزدیک است، همچنین با مطابقت نقشه توزیع آرای باطله و پراکندگی سطح سواد مشخص شده در محلاتی که سطح سواد بالاتری وجود دارد، آرا باطله بیشتری به صندوق های رای سرازیر شده است.در محلات فقیر مشیارکت سیاسی بالاتر بوده و در محلات جنوبی نیز با توجه به سکونت جمعیت مهاجر، مشارکت کمتری دیده میشود. درمجموع، الگوی فضایی آرا منتخبین به صورت خطی و ازجنوب غربی به شمال کشیده شده که تمرکز قابل ملاحظه ای در بخش میانی آن مشاهده میشود، این امر نشان میدهد منتخبین شهر بیشتر حاصل انتخاب افراد ساکن در نواحی مرکزی شهر بوده و الگوی فضایی آرا آنها از پراکنش مناسب برخوردار نمی باشد.

Analysis of Affecting Factors in the Spatial Pattern of Political Participation in City Council Elections (Case Study: Ghaemshahr)

Extended AbstractIntroductionThe social mankind requires political participation in order to have a legitimate government system and so he does not find his place without active presence in politics. The first and easiest form of citizen participation is participation in the election. Election is one of the main elements of democratic governments. In this regard, one of the important concepts to be considered is the geography of the election. The geography of the election is centered on the selection of delegates at the local, regional and national levels that focuses on the geographic aspects of elections, referenda, and organizing them and knows the cultural, social, economic and other conditions is effective in various local, regional and national levels. Correct analysis of election behaviors and patterns and as well as the success of individuals and political groups in the election depends on the recognition of political approaches and approaches to electoral processes and political participation. Therefore, the present study attempts to identify the effective factors of political participation of citizens in the Ghaemshahr Islamic Council elections during the fourth and fifth periods.MethodThis research with the aim of practical and descriptiveanalytical method aims to analyze the space pattern of the fourth and fifth of city council election in Ghaemshahr City. The needed information was collected by studying documents and referring to offices of city and statistics center. The statistical society of this research is the polling station of Islamic Council of Ghaemshahr. The design of data analyzing and interpreting is quantity concerned and the spatial analyzing is conducted to examine the effective impact of citizens’ contribution in the election and also the significant factors of the previous election of the city council member of Ghaemshahr are tested.Findings and DiscussionElection in the council of Ghaemshahr city has experienced many ups and downs in a way that the rate of contribution with the downward trend 71% in 1998 reached to 53% in 2017. Selected individuals received a small percentage of the vote, with a maximum of about 19 percent. In the following round this rate was decreased displaying the phenomenon of “single vote” or voting based on individual recognition. The pattern of vote distribution is scattered. in the fifth period, in all neighborhoods of the city, except three neighborhoods, the number of votes has decreased compared to the fourth period. Concentration of votes in the fourth period in the northern and southern part of the city and in the fifth period, in addition to the north and south, it has been drawn to the east and southwest. Most of the participants are in the age group of 18 to 29 years old, which is a young age group and most of them live in new and newly developed areas of the city. The focus of literacy is overlapping with the literate population and there is a relationship between the level of literacy and the average of invalid votes and in neighborhoods that had a higher education level, the more invalid votes were in the box. There is no significant relationship between the distribution and the density of employment and unemployment with the level of citizen participation but there is a meaningful relationship between immigration and participation and the neighborhoods where more immigrants live, has a lower participation rate than other neighborhoods.ConclusionElection of the City Council is one of the most important and simplest forms of participation and acceptance of the role of citizenship that shows itself directly in urban management. From 1998 to 2017, five city council elections were held in Ghaemshahr City. The trend of citizens apos; participation has decreased 19% from the first round to the fifth round and decreased from 71% in the first period to 53% in the fifth period which shows that people have little satisfaction with the performance of the City Council during the past years. Separation of participants according to the age shows the focus of the participation groups in the election is related to the context of the city, neighborhood and the urban development process. The level of literacy has a direct and meaningful relationship with invalid votes. This tells the urban elites and people more aware of the situation and the community doesn’t satisfy with the performance of the council in the past period. Various factors in the analysis of citizen participation patterns clearly show measuring and evaluating a variable or factor can’t be a specific pattern of participation rate and the set of factors must be examined together. The tendency and motivation of political choices on the one hand also imply social needs and on the other hand, it emanates from the ambition and expectations of social values.