On results of application of the improved intermediateterm earthquake forecast algorithm in the territory of Pakistan and surrounding regions

The region with longitude 60° to 90° e and latitude 20° to 45° n is selected for study. it constitutes pakistan,india,nepal,iran,afghanistan,tajikistan,kyrgyzstan,kazakhstan and china. earthquake data from the catalogue of national earthquake information centre (neic) of the united states of america geological survey (usgs) was selected for the present study. the data used from january 01,1964 to july 01,2009 with magnitude completeness of m ≥ 4.5. current study is carried out in two stages: first catalogue analysis and second application of algorithm for prediction. the analysis of selected data from the catalogue was carried out. the m8s algorithm which is modified version of m8 algorithm was used for prediction with target magnitude m = 7.0 and alarm is declared for five years and this may change after the addition in the earthquake catalogue which is updated every six months. secondly the algorithm m8s is run on july 01,2009 and the tentative expiration date of alarm is june 30,2014. the area constitute where alarm declared in the run,was pakistan,china,nepal,india,kyrgyzstan and kazakhstan. after the declaration of alarm in the three different areas produced by the july 01,2009 run,two significant earthquakes i.e. 6.0+ occurred within six months,but they did not lie in the alarming area.