بررسی فضایی تحقیق و توسعه داخلی و سرریز فناوری بر شدت انرژی در استان های ایران

هدف اصلی این تحقیق بررسی تاثیر عوامل فناوری بر شدت انرژی 29 استان ایران با بهره گیری از مدل فضایی طی دوره 1386 تا 1394است . برای این منظور از متغیرهای تحقیق و توسعه بومی ، سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی، صادرات و واردات به عنوان عوامل فناوری موثر استفاده شده است. روش تحقیق این پژوهش مدل دوربین فضایی(sdm) است که بعد از انجام آزمون های مربوطه تعیین و برآورد شده است. نتایج حاکی از آن بود که از بین عوامل فناوری ، تحقیق و توسعه داخلی و واردات نقش مهم و غالب در کاهش شدت انرژی داشته است. اما سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی نتوانسته تاثیر بسزایی در کاهش شدت مصرف انرژی داشته باشد. متغیرهای کنترل؛ قیمت انرژی ، ساختار اقتصادی و شهر نشینی نیز تاثیری مطابق ادبیات نظری(به ترتیب مثبت، منفی و منفی) بر شدت مصرف انرژی داشته است. بنابراین با توجه به نتایج توصیه می شود با افزایش سرمایه گذاری در تحقیق و توسعه و واردات موجبات کاهش شدت انرژی را فراهم آوردند همچنین باتنظیم قیمت انرژی و با سیاستگذاری توزیع صنایع در سطح استان در کاهش صنعتی شدن شهرها و کاهش شهرنشینی و از این طریق کاهش شدت انرژی موثر واقع شوند.

Spatial Analysis of R&D and Technology Spillovers on Energy Intensity in Iran

Today, energy is known as one of the main factors for the formation and development of industrial societies And the availability of countries to various energy sources represents their potential for political and economic progress. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to investigate the effect of technology factors on the intensity of energy in 29 provinces of Iran (except for Alborz and South Khorasan) using the space model during the period from 2007 to 2015. For this purpose, indigenous R D variables such as foreign direct investment, exports and imports as effective technology factors, and the variables of economic structure, energy prices and urbanization as control variables have been used. The research method is a spatial model. After performing the relevant tests and determining the type of model, Spatial Durbin Models (SDM) has been designed for review. Three direct and indirect effects and total effects have been estimated. The results of the study in three cases indicate that among the factors of technology, research and development (in both direct, indirect and total terms) and import (in direct and total terms), they have played a major role in reducing energy intensity. But foreign direct investment has not been able to have a significant impact on reducing energy consumption. Exports have also led to an increase in energy intensity. Control variables: energy prices, economic structure, and urbanization have effect according to theoretical literature (positive, negative, and negative respectively) on the reduction of energy consumption. Therefore, according to the results, it is recommended that, by increasing investment in R D and imports, it would reduce energy intensity, also by adjusting energy prices and by policy of distributing industries and factories in the province, especially in rural areas, in reducing industrialization of cities and Reducing urbanization and thereby reducing energy intensity.