شناسایی و تحلیل پیشران‌های موثر بر توسعه پایدار کلان‌شهر کرمانشاه با رویکرد سناریو مبنا

امروزه باتوجه‌به افزایش جمعیت شهرها و افزایش فشار بر منابع، توسعه پایدار به‌عنوان یک استراتژی مهم جهت بالابردن کیفیت زندگی شهروندان و پایداری منابع شهری توسط کارشناسان مطرح گردید. دراین‌بین کلان‌شهر کرمانشاه دارای مسائل و مشکلات اجتماعی، اقتصادی، طبیعی، زیست‌محیطی بالایی است؛ لذا باتوجه‌به این مسائل هدف تحقیق حاضر، شناسایی مهم‌ترین پیشران‌های موثر بر توسعه پایدار کلان‌شهر کرمانشاه با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی است. هدف تحقیق کاربردی و روش مبتنی بر تحلیل ساختار است. داده‌ها و اطلاعات موردنیاز به دو روش کتابخانه‌ای و روش دلفی (استفاده از نظرات نخبگان) جمع‌آوری‌شده است. نمونه آماری تحقیق تعداد 50 نفر از کارشناسان، مدیران و پژوهشگران مربوطه است. با استفاده از نرم‌افزار micmac پیشران‌های کلیدی شناسایی گردید. در خروجی به‌دست‌آمده از نرم‎افزار میک‌مک نتایج نشان داد: که متغیرها با دو بار گردش داده‌ای عدد (91.80%) تاثیرگذاری بالای آنها بر یکدیگر مشهود است و این عدد مطلوبیت بالای مدل را نشان می‎دهد. سپس با استفاده از نرم‌افزار morphol سناریوها طراحی و تدوین گردید. نتایج نشان داد که پیشران‌های توانمندسازی زیرساخت‌های شهری در حوزه هوشمندسازی شهر و شهر الکترونیک، اعتبارات دولتی، گردشگری و موقعیت مرزی دارای بالاترین اثرگذاری خالص بر توسعه پایدار کلان‌شهر کرمانشاه هستند. همچنین از 2500 سناریوی خروجی دارای اعتبار، 5 سناریو با بیشترین اینرسی (اعتبار بالا، تکرارپذیری و احتمال وقوع) به‌عنوان سناریوهای نهایی ارائه شد. در نهایت باتوجه‌به نتایج به‌دست‌آمده پیشنهاداتی در جهت حرکت سناریوهای بینابین به سمت مطلوب شدن و توسعه پایدار کلان‌شهر کرمانشاه مبتنی بر سناریوهای پیش‎رو ارائه گردید.

identification and analysis of drivers effective on the sustainable development of kermanshah metropolis with a scenario-based approach

nowadays, sustainable development has been proposed by experts as an important strategy to improve the quality of life of citizens and the sustainability of resources due to the increase in the population of cities and the increase in pressure on resources. meanwhile, the metropolis of kermanshah has many social, economic, natural, and environmental issues and problems. therefore, according to these issues, the aim of the study is to identify the most important driving forces on the sustainable development of kermanshah with a future research approach. the purpose of the study is applied and the method is based on structure analysis. the required data and information have been collected by library methods and the delphi method (use of elite opinions). the statistical sample of the research consists of 50 experts, managers, and relevant researchers. the key drivers were identified using micmac software. according to the output obtained from the software, the saturation index obtained for the variables with two times data rotations is 91.80 percent, which confirms the strong influence of the variables on each other and shows the efficiency of the information obtained from the opinions of the elites. the results show that the drivers empowering the urban infrastructure in the field of smart city and electronic city, government credits, tourism, and border location have the highest net effect on the sustainable development of kermanshah. also, out of 2500 valid output scenarios, 5 scenarios with the highest inertia (high validity, repeatability, and probability of occurrence) have been presented as final scenarios. finally, according to the obtained results, suggestions were made in the direction of moving the intermediate scenarios toward the favorable and sustainable development of the kermanshah metropolis based on the upcoming scenarios. extended abstract1-introductionthe 20th century should be considered the century of world urbanization. the 21st century, in continuation of this process, is the century of transformation of world urbanization (egger, 2005, 44). so that in the past few decades, there have been fundamental changes in the quality of the urban environment following the increase of pressures of industrialization and the increase of urbanization. these factors have the most significant effect on the climate, pressure on natural resources, and damage to cities (mersal, 2016:51). rapid population growth and expansion of cities along with increasing demand for physical resources in cities put pressure on environmental resources. the concept of a sustainable city proposes a framework to ensure a better life for citizens and protect the environment to maintain sustainability through information and communication technologies (nengchengchen et al, 2022:1). therefore, one of the most important elements of sustainable development is sustainable urban development (2009:50, xing et al). nimet et al. (2021) believe that a sustainable city; specifically, it seeks to maximize energy and resource efficiency, create a zero-waste production system, support the production and use of renewable energy, promote carbon neutrality, and minimize environmental pollution. it also reduces transportation needs, encourages walking and cycling, ensures efficient and sustainable transportation, supports ecosystems and green areas and promotes vital activities and the formation of a human-centeredness environment (niemets et al, 2021: 305). what is important in sustainable development as a new and transformed human approach compared to the traditional concept of development is justice in enjoying resources, eco-oriented development, poverty reduction, environmental protection, comprehensiveness in examining and exploring the components of development, and generally having a human-centered approach to development (unesco, 1997: 13). but unfortunately, in most countries, especially in developing countries, and accordingly in our country, these guidelines have alarming conditions and have made the concept of sustainable development appear ambiguous and have faced major challenges in achieving it. this issue is also true for the metropolis of kermanshah, and so far, in the field of applying the principles and criteria of sustainable development, an optimal, codified, and specific model has not been presented for it. therefore, the aim of the current research on these issues is to look for a structural analysis of the current state of the metropolis of kermanshah and to present scenarios for the sustainable development of it.2-materials and methodsthe purpose of applied research and the method is based on structure analysis. also, the current research is a case study with the aim of improving the understanding of issues related to uncertainties in the development environment. according to the type of data, which is qualitative, and the type of analysis, which is mainly qualitative and quantitative combined the current research method is classified as a combined method. the data and information required for the research have been collected by two library methods (documents, plans, articles, books, etc.) and the delphi method (elite) in identifying and scoring the variables of the micmac software matrix and formulating assumptions and scenarios. to compile the scenarios, morphol software has been used. as this software presents different scenarios based on the percentage of the probability of the assumptions of the amount of inertia (resistance and probability of the scenario).3- results and discussionin the research findings section, the results of the mic mak matrix analysis showed that in the sustainable development of kermanshah metropolis, as the only border metropolis in the west of the country, a set of economic variables (private and public sector investment, budget and credits, unemployment rate, business location, border bazaars, and existence border customs, agriculture, specialized industries, rail transportation), social (population, civic awareness, citizen participation, literacy rate, academic and educational centers), political (political view in the selection of managers, politicization of managers, macro-national decisions) and natural (drought, dust intrusion, oil and gas resources, geographical location, environment) as key variables and two-way variables (high impact and high impact) have high impact and are placed in the 1st and 2nd regions of the output map. also, the results of the analysis of the scenarios showed that the final output of the scenarios was presented after the points given to the proposed assumptions, and among the 2500 thousand valid scenarios, the first five scenarios were selected as the analysis scenarios due to the repetition above 0.90 in the following scenarios. 4- conclusionthe conclusion confirms that a set of natural, political, social, and economic factors are involved in the future sustainable development of the kermanshah metropolis. for each of them, there are specific scenarios ahead. therefore, using favorable scenarios, strengthening optimistic scenarios, strengthening intermediate scenarios in the fields of supervision of related institutions and organizations and historical tourism of kermanshah towards the favorability and finally planning to prevent the occurrence of disaster scenarios of natural hazards, communication routes, and unemployment poverty in this metropolis. also, the existence of two intermediate scenarios and three disaster scenarios shows that in order to provide a suitable model for the development of the kermanshah metropolis, there are almost many problems and obstacles in different sectors, and this is a need to use all the devices and organizations in different parts of the city. also, the ideal scenario; the development of the city’s infrastructure towards smartness and electronics shows the high importance of this variable in the sustainable development of kermanshah.