نقش سرمایه انسانی پایدار در مدیریت خشکسالی اقلیمی با استفاده از شاخص‌های برازندگی در روستاهای شهرستان کرمانشاه

برخورداری از سرمایه‌های انسانی پایدار منجر به اتخاذ راهبرد و راهکارهایی می‌شود که خانواران روستایی را در برابر مخاطرات به‌ویژه خشکسالی تاب‌آور می‌سازد. هدف از پژوهش حاضر بررسی نقش سرمایه انسانی پایدار در مدیریت خشکسالی اقلیمی در مناطق روستایی شهرستان کرمانشاه است. تحقیق حاضر از لحاظ هدف (نوع استفاده) یک تحقیق کاربردی است و روش مورداستفاده در این تحقیق یک روش توصیفی - تحلیلی است. جامعه آماری مورد پژوهش شامل کلیه کارشناسان مرتبط با موضوع پژوهش در شهرستان کرمانشاه به تعداد 120 نفر هستند. حجم نمونه بر اساس کل سرشماری برای کارشناسان به تعداد 120 نفر انتخاب شدند. ابزار گردآوری داده‌ها شامل دو پرسش‌نامه سرمایه انسانی و مدیریت خشکسالی بوده و شاخص سرمایه انسانی دارای زیر شاخص‌هایی هستند که شامل (تخصص، مهارت و دانش)، است. روایی پرسش‌نامه به شیوه صوری بوده که به تایید اساتید دانشگاهی رسیده و پایایی کل پرسش‌نامه بر اساس آلفای کرونباخ به میزان 0.84 بوده و اثبات شده است. داده‌های گردآوری شده بر اساس تحلیل مسیر معادلات ساختاری مورد تجزیه‌وتحلیل قرار گرفتند. نتایج نشان داد که به‌طورکلی سرمایه انسانی در مدیریت خشکسالی تاثیر دارد. در این میان زیر متغیرهای سرمایه انسانی که مشتمل بردانش، مهارت و تخصص است نیز بر مدیریت خشکسالی تاثیر داشته‌اند به‌گونه‌ای که دانش بر مدیریت خشکسالی با ضریب تاثیر 0.26 و مقدار معناداری 0.002، مهارت بر مدیریت خشکسالی با ضریب تاثیر 0.34 و میزان معناداری 0.000 و تخصص با ضریب تاثیر 0.49 و میزان معناداری 0.000 بر مدیریت خشکسالی تاثیر داشته‌اند. در این میان تخصص دارای بیشترین تاثیر و دانش دارای کمترین تاثیر بوده است.

the role of human capital in climatic drought management, using fitness indicators, in the villages of kermanshah district

having sustainable human capital leads to the adoption of strategies which make rural families resilient to risks, especially drought. the purpose of this study is to investigate the role of human capital in climate drought management in rural areas of kermanshah. the present study is an applied research in terms of purpose (type of use), and the method used in this research is a descriptiveanalytical method. the statistical population of the study, including all experts related to the subject of research in kermanshah, is made of 120 people. the sample size was selected for 120 experts based on the total census. data collection tools include two questionnaires of human capital and drought management. moreover, the human capital index has subindicators that include (expertise, skills and knowledge). the validity of the questionnaire was formal, which was confirmed by university professors, and the total reliability of the questionnaire, based on cronbach’s alpha, was 0.84 and was proven. the collected data were analyzed based on the path analysis of structural equations. the results showed that human capital in general is effective in drought management. among these, human capital subvariables, which include knowledge, skills and expertise have also affected drought management, so that knowledge on drought management with an impact factor of 0/26 and a significant value of 0/002, drought management skills with an impact factor of 0/34 and a significance of 0/000, and specialization with an impact factor of 0/49 and a significance of 0/000, have affected drought management. among these, expertise had the highest impact, while knowledge had the least impact.         extended abstract1introductionone of the ways to reduce the vulnerability of rural communities to natural hazards is to make them resilient, which can be one of the basic strategies for sustainable rural management, planning and development. it is considered as one of the key components of resilience giving the effective role of human capital, since having sustainable human capital leads to the adoption of strategies that make rural families resilient to the risks, especially drought. the effect of this natural disaster has doubled and local communities have become more unstable due to the lack of benefit from outside stakeholders, the value of human capital in the face of drought in kermanshah province, and of course, the poor ability of rural households to deal with it. therefore, the severity of the effects of drought on local communities will vary depending on the type of management. in the case of drought crisis management, measures to identify and assist crisis areas are very costly and sudden. there are many villages in kermanshah province, many of which have faced severe drought crises in recent years, especially from 1993 to 1997. since these areas are highly dependent on the environment and water, adverse effects such as rural migration have reduced the area under cultivation, the number of livestock, dependence and belonging to the community, etc. the purpose of this study is to investigate the role of human capital in climate drought management in rural areas of kermanshah.2materials and methodsthe present study is applied research in terms of purpose (type of use), and the method used in this research is a descriptiveanalytical method. the statistical population of the study, including all experts related to the subject of research in kermanshah, is 120 people. the sample size was selected for 120 experts based on the total census. data collection tools include two questionnaires of human capital and drought management. human capital index has subindicators including expertise, skills and knowledge. the validity of the questionnaire was formal, which was confirmed by university professors, and the total reliability of the questionnaire, based on cronbach’s alpha, was 0.84 and was proven. the collected data were analyzed based on the path analysis of structural equations.3 results and discussionthe results showed that human capital in general is effective in drought management. among these, human capital subvariables, which include knowledge, skills and expertise have also affected drought management, so that knowledge on drought management with an impact factor of 0.26 and a significant value of 0.002, drought management skills with an impact factor of / 34. 0 and a significance of 0.000, and specialization with an impact factor of 0.49 and a significance of 0.000, have affected drought management. among these, expertise had the most impact, and knowledge had the least impact. the importance of the effects of climatic drought on rural, natural and agricultural resources, which are the most important economic resources of the people, becomes apparent showing the continuation of this drought in the long run will cause a lot of damage, and we must think of appropriate solutions based on human capital for management. basically, the ultimate goal of conducting studies on drought, as one of the most important unexpected events, is to prepare the community to face the severe conditions of drought, and to take preventive measures to easily overcome such crises. it is very important to inform the people about the causes and harmful effects of climate drought, as well as appropriate methods of optimal management of water consumption, and people can consciously play an effective role in reducing the vulnerability of society, and seek public participation based on human capital.4 conclusionsustainable rural development plans are part of any country’s development plans, which are used to transform the comprehensive socioeconomic structure of rural areas. however, when a drought crisis occurs, all aspects of sustainability will be affected, so that its effects will become quite apparent to the rural economy and society, and the environmental dimension will be fragile; the effects can be seen in other dimensions of sustainable development; in other words, the occurrence of drought creates social and environmental challenges for rural areas, which can be damaged by land, farms, orchards, rural environment and the problem of water shortage, increased pressure and stress on women and children, and increased crime. however, the most widespread effects of drought are the effects imposed on the agricultural sector, and the household economy of rural areas is significantly dependent on the agricultural sector. moreover, as the economic capacity of this sector decreases, the family economy is endangered, and subsequent consequences such as unemployment, lack of income, youth migration, etc. will be widespread.