تغییر الگوی کشت و اثرات آن بر ساختار اقتصاد پایدار (مطالعه موردی: نواحی روستایی استان گیلان)

کشاورزی نقش کلیدی در توانمند سازی دولت در رسیدن به خودکفایی غذایی و حفظ آن دارد. رشد پایدار کشاورزی به طور قابل‌توجهی به فرایند تحول آن بستگی داشته که به نوبه خود با تغییر در الگوهای کشت مرتبط می باشد. تعیین الگوی بهینة کشت از جمله مسائلی است که در اقتصاد کشاورزی موردتوجه فراوان است. مطالعات مختلف توسعه اقتصادی، اهمیت تغییر الگوی کشت را در فرایند توسعۀ روستایی خاطرنشان کرده و بر نقش آن به‌عنوان یک عامل مهم در کاهش تفاوت درآمدی و فقر خانوارهای روستایی تاکید دارند. هدف از این مقاله تاثیر بررسی اثرات تغییر الگوی کشت بر ساختار اقتصادی از دیدگاه روستاییان با رویکرد مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری می‌باشد که مطالعات کتابخانه ای و میدانی دررابطه‌با روستاهای شهرستان‌های آستارا، تالش و رودسر استان گیلان صورت گرفت. به این منظور 390 خانوار در روستاهای این سه شهرستان که دست به تغییر الگوی کشت از برنج به کیوی زدند، به‌عنوان نمونه انتخاب شدند. تحقیق حاضر به لحاظ هدف از نوع تحقیقات کاربردی و به لحاظ ماهیت از نوع تحقیقات توصیفی علی است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که اعتبار اندازه گیری شده هر پنج مدل اندازه‌گیری و نیز مدل پنج عاملی مرتبه دوم برای بررسی اثرات تغییر الگوی کشت قابل‌قبول می‌باشد. در نهایت رونق تولید (0.30)، افزایش سرمایه گذاری (0.18)، بهبود فضای کسب‌وکار (0.66)، کاهش بدهی روستاییان (0.46) و کاهش مهاجرت (0.22) از بارهای عاملی را تبیین می‌نماید. براین‌اساس می‌توان گفت الگوی کشت مرکبات بر ساختار اقتصادی روستاهای موردمطالعه نقش موثری را ایفا نموده است.

Changing the Cultivation Pattern and its Effect on the Structure of Stable Economy (Case Study: Rural Areas of Gilan Province)

Agriculture plays a key role in empowering the government to achieve and maintain food selfsufficiency. Sustainable agricultural growth depends significantly on its transformation process, which in turn is associated with changes in cultivation patterns. Determining the optimal cultivation pattern is one of the issues that are highly considered in agricultural economics. Various studies of economic development emphasize both the importance of changing the pattern of cultivation in the process of rural development and its role as an important factor in reducing the income gap and poverty of rural households. The purpose of this article is to investigate the effects of changing the cultivation pattern on the economic structure from the perspective of villagers with a structural equation modeling approach. Library and field studies were conducted in relation to the villages of Astara, Talesh and Rudsar in Guilan province. For this purpose, 390 households in the villages of these three cities, which changed the cultivation pattern from rice to kiwi, were selected as a sample. The present research is applied research in terms of purpose and descriptivecausal research in nature. The results show that the measured validity of all five measurement models as well as the secondorder fivefactor model is acceptable to investigate the effects of changing the cultivation pattern. Finally, production boom (0/30), the increase in investment (0/18), improvement of business environment (0/66), reduction of villagers’ debt (0/46) and reduction of migration (0/22) are among the factor burdens. Based on this, it can be said that the citrus cultivation pattern has played an effective role on the economic structure of the studied villages. Extended Abstract1IntroductionCultivation pattern is one of the influential factors on the growth and development of the agricultural sector that can help improve the economic, social and environmental sectors in rural areas. Cultivation pattern indicates the area under cultivation of different crops at a given time. The choice of any cultivation pattern, due to the multidimensionality of agriculture, can have important consequences on the life of farmers and the rural community. Agriculture, as the dominant activity of villages over time, has experienced countless structural changes in the form of changes in cultivation, cultivation system, cultivation type and cultivation pattern. Although the cultivation pattern refers to the cultivation of a variety of crops in relation to the allocation of arable land, each of them has specific economic, social and technical structures within it. Now, if these patterns are changed, they will create changes at the micro and macro levels of society. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the effects of changing the cultivation pattern on economic structure with emphasis.2Materials and MethodsThe research method is descriptiveanalytical. In this research, data and information have been collected with field, library, and combined methods (quantitative and qualitative). The statistical population of this study includes all farmers in the villages of Talesh, Rudsar and Astara in Gilan province, where the most changes in cultivation pattern have occurred in the areas. Out of 56,480 households in 361 villages with more than 20 households, in which the cultivation pattern has been changed, 390 households and 76 villages were selected as a sample through Cochran’s formula and random sampling method. Cronbach’s alpha coefficient was also used to obtain the reliability of the questionnaire. Table 3 shows the Cronbach’s alpha value for economic indicators. In order to ensure the validity of the questionnaire, 15 faculty members and agricultural jihad experts (face validity) were applied.3 Results and DiscussionIn recent years, with the importance of sustainable development paradigm, the emphasis on the position of the social dimension in the field of sustainability has become doubly important. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of cultivation pattern on economic structure from the perspective of villagers with a structural equation modeling approach. Reduction of migration was considered as a measure to change the cultivation pattern. Five models of confirmatory factor analysis, a firstorder factor for measuring and validation of four scales and a secondorder fivefactor model to analyze the effects of cultivation pattern change and related indicators were developed and implemented. Finally, production boom (0.30), Increased investment (0.18), improved business environment (0.66), reduced rural debt (0.46) and reduced migration (0.22) were explained. 4 ConclusionAgriculture is an activity that, due to its multidimensional nature, will be able to affect the economic life of a large number of people, especially in rural areas. However, agriculture, like other human activities, is always changing under the influence of human society and natural conditions. One of these changes goes back to the pattern and type of cultivation that is chosen or imposed on them by farmers. Therefore, considering the importance of the role of agriculture, the changes that occur on it, especially in rural communities, should be carefully monitored in order to minimize the losses caused to these communities. Although developing kiwi cultivation and the growing trend of replacing it with rice cultivation have played an effective role in promoting economic development indicators and sustainable livelihoods in the studied rural areas, it should be noted that this event is at great expense. The threat to the country’s economic and food security has been achieved. Therefore, the reasons for farmers’ reluctance to cultivate rice and the consequences of this decision at the national and local levels could be a topic for future research. From the above discussions, it can be said that the effects of changing the cultivation pattern as a new approach in agriculture with its specific indicators has an effective role in promoting economic indicators and makes the villagers live in various economic fields including increasing income, improving business environment. Besides, its immigration effects will see more tangible results.