تحلیل سطح پایداری مبتنی بر تعادل رفاه اکولوژیکی-انسانی در حوزه‌ توتلی

یکی از چالش‌های اصلی در قرن 21 ارتقاء توسعه جامعه بشری و در عین حال حفاظت از تاب‌آوری اکوسیستم‌های طبیعی است. کلید دستیابی به این هدف، در برقراری تعادل پایداری بین دو بخش اکولوژیکی و انسانی است که بدون انجام ارزیابی‌های جامع و کافی از پایداری محقق نمی‌شود. بنابراین در پژوهش حاضر، وضعیت پایداری حوضه توتلی واقع در شمال استان خراسان شمالی با استفاده از روش اتحادیه بین‌المللی حفاظت از طبیعت (iucn) بررسی شد. به این دلیل، سطح پایداری در دو بخش اکوسیستم و رفاه انسانی برای کل حوضه و 12 زیرحوضه آن (t01-t12) در پنج طبقه ناپایدار، تقریباً ناپایدار، پایداری متوسط، تقریباً پایدار و پایدار با امتیازات مساوی بین صفر تا 100 مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. در بخش پایداری اکوسیستم، چهار معیار، هشت شاخص و 20 متغیر و در بخش رفاه انسانی دو معیار، هفت شاخص و 19 متغیر متناسب با شرایط جغرافیایی، جمعیتی و هیدروژئومورفولوژیکی انتخاب شد. نتایج تاییدکننده ناموزون بودن توزیع درون‌گروهی شاخص‌های پایداری در هر زیرحوضه بوده است. هم‌چنین سطح پایداری در بخش‌های اکوسیستم و رفاه انسانی در حوضه توتلی متوسط ارزیابی شد و به‌ترتیب دارای امتیاز 50 و 45 از 100 هستند. هم‌چنین، پایداری کل حوضه در وضعیت متوسط با امتیاز 47.5 محاسبه شد. از لحاظ تغییرات مکانی نیز مشخص شد که زیرحوضه‌های‌ t06 (جنوب شرقی) و t10 (جنوب غربی) در طبقه تقریباً ناپایدار، t03، t05، t08 (شرق، شمال شرقی و جنوب شرقی)، t09 (جنوب) و t11 (غرب) در مرز پایداری متوسط، t01 (شمال غربی)، t02 (شمال غربی)، t04 (شمال غربی) و t12 (غرب، جنوب غربی و مرکز) در طبقه پایداری متوسط و فقط t07 (شمال) در وضعیت تقریباً پایدار قرار گرفته‌ است. در مجموع به‌ترتیب 56.80، 41.59 و 1.61 درصد از کل حوضه توتلی در طبقات تقریباً ناپایدار، پایداری متوسط و تقریباً پایدار قرار گرفته‌ است.

Analyzing the Sustainability Level based on Ecological- Anthropogenic Balance in the Toutli Watersheds

One of the main challenges in the 21st century is to promote the development of human society while protecting natural ecosystems resilience. The key to achieving this goal is to establish a sustainability balance between the ecological and human sectors, which cannot be achieved without comprehensive and adequate assessments of sustainability. In this study, the sustainability of Toutli Watershed, north of North Khorasan Province, was investigated using the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) method. Therefore, sustainability in both ecosystem and human wellbeing for the whole watershed and its 12 subwatersheds (T01T12) were assessed into five classes of unsustainable, almost unsustainable, medium, almost sustainable, and sustainable with equal scores from zero to 100. In the ecosystem sustainability sector, four criteria, eight indicators, and 20 variables, and in the human wellbeing sector two criteria, seven indicators, and 19 variables were selected based on the geographical, demographic, and hydro geomorphological conditions. The results confirmed the heterogeneity of the intragroup distribution of sustainability indicators in each watershed. Furthermore, the sustainability level in the ecosystem and human wellbeing sectors in Toutli Watershed was assessed as a medium with the scores of 50 and 45, respectively. Also, the whole watershed sustainability was evaluated in the medium class with a 47.5 score. In terms of spatial variation of total sustainability index, it was found that subwatersheds T06 (southeast) and T10 (southwest) in an almost sustainable class, subwatersheds T03 (northwest), T05 (northwest), T08 (east, northeast and Southeast), T09 (south) and T11 (west) in the medium sustainability boundary, subwatersheds T01 (northwest), T02 (northwest), T04 (northwest) and T12 (west, southwest, and center) in the medium sustainability class, and only the T07 subwatershed (north) is in an almost sustainable class. Totally, 56.80, 41.59, and 1.61% of the total Tutli Watershed are located in almost unsustainable, medium, and almost sustainable classes, respectively.Extended Abstract1IntroductionUntimely and complex problems arising from human interactions with nature as well as internal connections among human needs have challenged the ecohydrological systems of the earth and humanity. There is a growing concern about the ability of current knowledge to provide rational and reliable solutions to these challenges. In response to increasing environmental crises and unbalanced population growth, modern society has considered sustainable development as one of the development models. In this regard, sustainability has been proposed as a concept whose main purpose is to preserve natural, social and economic capital for future generations. For this purpose and to meet the objectives of the National Mega Research Project on the Integrated Watershed Management for Iran, the present study was conducted to assess the sustainability and analyze the spatial variation of sustainability indicators in 12 subwatersheds of Tutli using the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) method.2Materials and MethodsAccording to the background of the IUCN method, the sustainability in both ecosystem and human wellbeing for the whole watershed and its 12 subwatersheds (T01T12) were assessed. In the ecosystem sustainability sector, four criteria, eight indicators, and 20 variables, and in the human wellbeing sector two criteria, seven indicators, and 19 variables were selected in accordance with the geographical, demographic, and hydrogeomorphological conditions of the study watershed. Five classes of unsustainable, almost unsustainable, medium, almost sustainable, and sustainable with equal scores from zero to 100 were assigned.3 Results and DiscussionThe analysis of the results showed that the level of sustainability in the ecosystem and human wellbeing sectors in Toutli Watershed is medium and equal to 50 and 45 out of 100 scores, respectively. Moreover, the sustainability of the whole watershed was evaluated in the medium class with a score of 47.5. In terms of spatial variation of the total sustainability index by subwatersheds, it was found that subwatersheds T06 (southeast) and T10 (southwest) in an almost sustainable class, subwatersheds T03 (northwest), T05 (northwest), T08 (east, northeast and Southeast), T09 (south) and T11 (west) in the medium sustainability boundary, subwatersheds T01 (northwest), T02 (northwest), T04 (northwest) and T12 (west, southwest and center) in the medium sustainability class, and only the T07 subwatershed (north) is in an almost sustainable class. Depending on the type of land use, rangelands cover 75.4% of the total area of the watershed, which geologically consists mainly of sandstone and green gluconate shale. Irrigated agriculture is done in T1, T11, and T12 subwatersheds, and rainfed agriculture is done in T08, T10, and T12 subwatersheds. Despite the small area of agriculture in the watershed, the intensity of its destruction in the ecosystem is much higher than other land uses. However, in terms of providing employment and human welfare, it neutralizes its destructive effect and plays an almost positive role in the overall sustainability index. In total, 56.80, 41.59, and 1.61% of the total Tutli Watershed are located in almost unsustainable, medium, and almost sustainable classes, respectively.4Conclusions In general, the results of the present study confirm the enlightenment of appropriate management programs for the entire Toutli Watershed, especially with an emphasis on prioritizing conservation measures aimed at maintaining and promoting the ecosystem services sustainability. Given the growing population and human needs, the imbalance of two parts of sustainability, including ecological and human wellbeing, is undoubtedly predicted. Towards this, in order to use the present results in various land use planning and management programs, it is recommended that the future perspective of the country be considered in terms of the level of supply and demand for ecological resources.