بررسی ارتباط بین وضعیت آسیب‌پذیری جوامع و تغییرات آب و هوایی در استان کرمانشاه

جوامع انسانی و محیط با ریسک‌ها و خطرات مربوط به تغییر اقلیم و همچنین تاثیرات ناشی از آن روبه رو هستند. تغییر در وضعیّت اقلیم به روش های مختلف و به طور مستقیم و غیر مستقیم جوامع انسانی را تحت تاثیر قرار می‌دهد، امّا در این میان اجتماعات محلّی به ویژه بخش کشاورزی، وابسته‌ترین بخش به اقلیم بوده، این ویژگی‌ها اجتماعات محلّی را به محور اصلی بحث‌های سیاسی و پروژه‌های پژوهشی انجام شده درباره تغییر اقلیم تبدیل کرده است. در نوشتار پیش رو روش مبتنی بر شاخص برای تحلیل آسیب‌پذیری در رویارویی با تغییرات اقلیمی استفاده شد. با استفاده از مشاهده میدانی و ابزار پرسش نامه، آسیب‌پذیری به تغییرات اقلیمی در مناطق هدف در استان کرمانشاه بررسی شد. نوشتار پیش رو در اقلیم نیمه خشک و با توجّه به شاخص‌های آسیب‌پذیری به تغییرات اقلیمی، درمعرض قرارگرفتن، حسّاسیت و ظرفیت سازگاری بوده است. تغییرات اقلیمی به شیوه‌های مختلف همچون ازدست دادن زمین‌های کشاورزی، سیلاب، افزایش دما و کمبود آب، بر معیشت مردم اثر گذاشته، و سبب آسیب پذیری جوامع روستایی شده است. نتایج حاصل از سنجش میزان آسیب‌پذیری اجتماعات روستایی در رویارویی با تغییر اقلیم در سه روستای گاوکل (3.1)، گراوند (2.93) و شهرک هلته (2.73) است، آسیب‌پذیری در این منطقه به دلیل عوامل غیر اقلیمی مانند موقعیّت جغرافیایی منطقه مورد مطالعه و حسّاسیت به تغییرات اقلیمی و عوامل غیر اقلیمی مانند دارایی‌های معیشتی خانواده‌ها و زیرساخت است و روستای شهرک هلته به دلیل بالابودن ظرفیت سازگاری، مطلوبیت بیشتری نسبت به دو روستای گاوکل و گراوند داشته است؛ همچنین روستای گراوند با مقدار 4.16 بیشترین آسیب‌پذیری محیطی را دارد. کشورهای دارای سطوح پایین‌تر درآمد، آسیب‌پذیری بیشتر و انعطاف‌پذیری کمتر، و افرادی دارای درآمد بالاتر، آسیب‌پذیر کمتری داشته و مقاوم هستند.

Investigating the Relationship between the Vulnerability of Communities and Climate Changes in Kermanshah Province

Climate Changes affect human societies in different ways, but in the meantime, local communities, especially agricultural sectors, are the most related part of the climate. These features have made local communities to the pivot point of policy discussions and research projects on climate change. In this research, an indicatorbased method was used to analyze the local vulnerability in confronting of climate change. Using a field survey and a tool for measuring the vulnerability facing climate change in target areas in Kermanshah Province, a semiarid climate has been investigated based on vulnerability indicators facing climate change, exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Climate changes have affected people in different ways, such as loss of agricultural, flooding, rising temperature land and water shortages on people’s livelihoods, and the vulnerability of rural communities. The evaluation of the vulnerability of rural communities in the face of climate change in the three villages Gawkel (3.1), Gravand (2.93) and Shahrak hlth (2.73). The vulnerability in this region is due to nonclimatic factors such as the case study and the sensitivity to climate change and inappropriate factors such as household livelihoods and infrastructure. Due to of the high compatibility capacity, the village Shahrak Helteh, has been more desirable than the two villages of Gawkel and Gravand. Also, Gravand Village has the highest environmental vulnerability of 16.4. The countries with the lowest income levels are more vulnerable and less resilient, while those with the highest income are the least vulnerable and most resilient. Extended Abstract 1Introduction It is necessary to analyze the effects of this phenomenon in the research from the human and environmental viewpoints due to the human impacts of the climate changes phenomenon, including social, cultural, psychological, economic and infrastructural effects. The vulnerability of the characteristics of an individual or a community is their ability to predict, counteract, and resistance against natural hazards. Researchers believe that one of the ways to increase adaptation in local communities is the right using of existing resources and potential opportunities among them. This study investigates vulnerability facing climate changes in the local communities of Kermanshah province.   2Materials and Methods To do this research, three villages of Gawkel, Gravand and Shahrak Helteh were selected randomly from the semiarid region of Kermanshah province based on the Sylaninov climate classification. An indicatorbased methodology for vulnerability analysis in dealing with climate change was used in this study. The indicators studied in this study include exposure, susceptibility and capacitybuilding, that included economic, social, infrastructure, individual knowledge and government. The statistical population was consisted of local communities in Kermanshah province, and a systematic random sampling method was used to select the villages. Therefore, questionnaires were distributed among local communities in three villages. Finally, the number of samples in this study was determined by 90 people and then the data were collected. Finally, the statistical methods were used to analyze the collected data. 3Results and Discussion The results of the analysis of the status of effective components of vulnerability in the face of change in societies indicate that the vulnerability of components in the communities of the three villages studied were different. According to the average vulnerability of the components in the studied areas, the vulnerability of exposed components, sensitivity, economy and infrastructure is higher than the average vulnerability. As a result, a meaningful test and zero assumption are based on the same distribution of the data. It can be deduced that the average value is different from the mean value. Other social components, infrastructure, individual knowledge and government, sequential, with a numerical value of 0.2, 8.2, 2.5 and 3.2 are less than the mean of the average vulnerability, which is not significant. It can also be stated that the variance of exposed components, sensitivity and economics with the significance level of their values is equal to 0.002, 0.034 and 0.046, respectively, meaning that the component variance in semiarid region has a significant difference. In addition to other components, the significance level is greater than 0.05. It can be concluded that the variance of these components in the semiarid region is not significant and the components are homogeneous. Regarding the level of significance at the level of 0.05, it can be concluded that the average vulnerability in the components of exposure, sensitivity, economics, social and government is not significant. Besides, the significance level, in infrastructure, knowledge and government components is more than 0.05. This result indicates that the mean of vulnerability variability of components in the region is significant. The results of measuring the vulnerability of local communities in the face of climate change in three villages of Gawkel, Gravand and Helteh, indicate that the three villages are vulnerable in terms of vulnerability. The village of Helteh with a mean damage of 2.73 was better, but Gravand village with an average vulnerability of 2.93% had the greater disadvantage than the village of Shahrak Helteh. Besides, Gawkel Village with an average vulnerability of 3.1 has the most disadvantaged and vulnerable. The Levine test has a level of significant 0/163; It can be concluded that there is no significant difference between the variances of the studied communities and they are homogeneous. Considering the significance level of 30%, it can be stated that in terms of vulnerability, the difference between the three villages is not significant. 4Conclusion Climate Changes effect on human societies in different ways, but in the meantime, local communities, especially agricultural sector, are the most related part of the climate and it is the main determinant of location, production resources and productivity of agricultural activities. In this study, using statistical analysis of societies in terms of vulnerability, the results of this study indicate that the components of exposure, sensitivity, economy, and infrastructure are more vulnerable. This is primarily due to inaccuracies such as the geographic location of the case study and the sensitivity to climate change and inappropriate factors such as household livelihoods and infrastructure. Moreover, most of the rural households have very limited adaptability capacity. Gravand Village has the most environmental vulnerability. Also, the village of Helteh has been more desirable because of higher compatibility capacity than the two Gawkel and Gravand villages. The most vulnerable communities are those which, after a catastrophe, can hardly recover and rehabilitate their livelihood conditions. Typically, the poor are more risk averse than the rich. Poorer demographic groups do not have better choices to live in a better place. So they have to live in risky areas. Creation occupation and professional opportunities in villages and institutional coordination in the distribution of tasks related to agricultural compatibility between related departments and ministries, the adoptability of local communities to climate damages can be increased.