sensitivity analysis of makran subduction zone’s seismic parameters for optimizing the number of potential tsunami scenarios

Given the necessity of knowing the probability and risk of future tsunamis in actions related to tsunami hazard mitigation, the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (ptha) approach has been accepted as the basis for tsunami risk assessment studies for high-risk areas such as the makran region. considering the uncertainties associated with fault parameters and the random nature of earthquake occurrence in ptha, simulation a large number of potential tsunami scenarios is required in future tsunami studies of the makran subduction zone (msz). in order to optimize the number of scenarios in these studies, appropriate values for the ranges and change intervals of some uncertain seismic parameters in different scenarios are determined in the present study. for this, the values used in previous studiesfor earthquake magnitude and depth as well as dip and rake angles of msz's tsunamigenic earthquakes are investigated; and the effects of variations in these parameters on the tsunami waves are evaluated through numerical modeling based on non-linear shallow water equations and sensitivity analysis. the obtained results show that a minimum value of mw0.1 for the interval of earthquake magnitude variations must set in developing potential tsunami scenarios for the makran region. also, considering two or three values in the range of 2º to 20º and 10 km to 30 km, respectively, as probable values for the dip angle of the subduction zone and the depth of tsunamigenic earthquakes seems sufficient. however, if the minimum number of scenarios is desired, selecting a unit value for the dip angle in the range of 10º to 15º and a constant earthquake depth of 10 km can be acceptable. also, for rake angle a constant value of 90º can be considered in different scenarios.