یادداشت تحلیلی: سامانه بیلان؛ به‌هنگام، هوشمند، قابل توسعه

با توجه به رشد تقاضای آب و کاهش تدریجی کمّی و کیفی منابع آب (ناشی از تغییر اقلیم)، امروزه ضرورت برنامه‌ریزی تخصیص‌های آب بر اساس آب تجدیدپذیر (آب قابل‌برنامه‌ریزی) کاملاً واضح و مبرهن است. ابزار محاسبه آب تجدیدپذیر، «برقراری بیلان در حوضه‌های آبریز» می‌باشد. دستیابی به نتایج به موقع وبا دقت کافی بیلان اهمیت اساسی دارد. سامانه بیلان با این هدف طراحی شده است.

Analytical note: Balance system; Timely, smart, scalable

Global warming is one of the most important issues in the world today, in which various variables are involved. Temperature increase, evapotranspiration increase along with significant decrease in precipitation and will greatly affect water resources. In this research, from the statistical exponential microscale model using the SDSM model, the output of the CanESM2 climate change model of Bam synoptic station is based on the models of the fifth report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change and under new release scenarios and future forecasts in three time periods of 2010 2040, 20412070 and 20712100 were used in comparison with the base period of 19612005. Daily observations of precipitation, mean temperature, minimum and maximum for the period 19612005 were entered into the model as input. Considering the climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), the desired climate change was evaluated for future periods. The output results of the microscale model showed that in future periods, the temperature in Bam station will increase based on the three scenarios. Precipitation will increase under some scenarios and will decrease under some scenarios. The results of CROPWAT 8.0 software for future periods showed that the water required for palm trees in the future years in the three time periods 20102040, 20412070 and 20712100 compared to the base period 20012005 for all scenarios and all time periods except RCP8.5 scenario have increased in the period 20112040.