بررسی ریسک زلزله به روش احتمالاتی و پیشنهاد سیستم‌های بیمه‌ای کارآمد بر پایه ریسک

ترکیب لرزه‌خیزی بالا و آسیب‌پذیری بالای سازه‌ها در ایران سبب گشته است که ریسک یا خطرپذیری در ایران در سطح بالایی قرار گیرد. به‌صورت کلی دو رویکرد اصلی در مدیریت ریسک وجود دارند که عبارتند از توزیع ریسک و کاهش ریسک که تمرکز اصلی این تحقیق بر توزیع ریسک است. جهت برآورد منابع مالی موجود جهت مقابله با خسارات زلزله، ابزارهای توزیع ریسک ،که در اینجا سیستم‌های بیمه زلزله می‌باشند، با در نظر گفتن آسیب‌پذیری اقتصادی موجود مالکین و ریسک منطقه، طراحی شده‌اند. از سوی دیگر، در هر سیستم بیمه زلزله طراحی شده، قابلیت پرداخت حق بیمه‌ها از سوی ساکنین در جامعه نیز که در پذیرفته شدن سیستم و پایداری آن ضروری است مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. رویکرد احتمالاتی مدل‌سازی ریسک مورد استفاده در اینجا، تفاوت زیادی را بین حق بیمه‌های موجود در کشور و حق بیمه‌های بر پایه ریسک محاسبه شده نشان می‌دهد که نشان‌دهنده اهمیت فراوان در نظر گرفتن واقعی ریسک زلزله در فرآیندهای تصمیم‌گیری‌های مالی قبل و پس از وقوع زلزله است. همچنین نیاز به روش‌های کاهش ریسک برای ساختمان‌های بسیار آسیب‌پذیر و لزوم بهره‌گیری از پوشش بیمه اتکایی و کمک‌های دولتی برای مدیریت ریسک رویدادهای فاجعه‌آمیز نشان داده شده است.

Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Risk and Proposing Optimized Risk-Based Insurance Systems

Iran is located in a high seismic area and has many vulnerable buildings against earthquake as well. Combination of high seismicity of the country and vulnerability of buildings can lead to high levels of risk for the country, which shows the importance of risk management before and after events. A catastrophic event such as a major earthquake can result in loss of life and serious damage to buildings and their contents, which Iran has experienced many of them during Bam, Manjil and other big earthquakes in the past. Being prepared for a natural disaster is not a new problem. Moredeveloped countries, governments, individuals and corporations around the world are aware of the fact that they need to be prepared against catastrophic events; however, they do not often take the necessary steps to prepare for a disaster. Only after a big disaster occurs, they recognize the importance of preparing for these types of extreme events and implication of disaster risk management tools. This is a bigger issue in developing countries where there is not enough financial resources or lacking a comprehensive risk management plan in place to manage these risks.  In general, there are two approaches in managing catastrophic risks, risk distribution and risk mitigation. The main focus of this paper is on risk distribution. In order to assess available financial resources to cope with earthquake losses, we developed risk distribution tools which also take the financial vulnerability of the people and the region into account. These tools are earthquake insurance systems by using excess of loss insurance mechanism in which we could look at different layers of risk and risk management strategy associated with them. An insurer provides protection to residential and commercial property owners for losses resulting from natural disasters. Losses from natural disasters can have a severe impact on an insurer’s financial condition. Owners of commercial and residential structures on the other side, have a range of risk management strategies from which to choose. They can reduce their risk by retrofitting a structure to withstand earthquake loading, transfer part of their risk by purchasing some form of insurance, and/or keep and finance their risk. The ways in which particular individuals decide to manage risk is often a function of their perceptions. Many homeowners do not take action even when the risk is abundantly clear and lossreducing measures are available. It is often the case that these homeowners feel that a disaster will not affect them. This shows the high importance of the acceptance of these risk management approaches by the society and the need to make people aware of their risk and providing incentives for them. The other important factor in every insurance system is affordability of earthquake premiums for people that is crucial in establishment and stability of the insurance system in the society which is investigated in this research. Probabilistic approach used here to assess the risk, shows a big difference between insurance premiums in Iran at the moment and riskbased premiums calculated in this research. This emphasizes the importance of incorporating the real risk assessment in decision making before and after catastrophic events. Catastrophe models are playing an important role in managing the risk of natural hazards through the establishment of riskbased insurance rates. These rates provide price information and economic incentives to mitigate and manage risks from low probability events that otherwise would be ignored until the disaster has occurred. The paper concluded by discussing the essential need to the use of catastrophe models for ratesetting purposes and also the importance of publicprivate partnership of the people and government and insurance companies in managing catastrophic events. Finally, the essential need to risk mitigation actions for very vulnerable assets and the need to get help from reinsurance and governmental help in the process of catastrophe risk management is shown here.