پیش بینی تغییرات اقلیمی در غرب ایران با استفاده از ریزمقیاس گردانی خروجی مدل hadcm3 تحت سناریوهای مختلف

تغییرات اقلیمی مهم ترین معضل کره زمین در قرن حاضر است بنابراین ارزیابی و پیش بینی این تغییرات در آینده به دلیل اثرات سوء تغییرات اقلیمی بر منابع آبی و محیط طبیعی و همچنین اثرات زیست‌محیطی، اقتصادی و اجتماعی از اهمیت ویژه ای برخوردار است. لذا در این پژوهش به پیش‌بینی پارامترهای دمای حداقل، دمای حداکثر، بارش و تابش به عنوان پارامترهای مهم اقلیمی به صورت روزانه تحت سناریوهای a1b، a2 وb1 با کاربست مدل گردش عمومی جو hadcm3 در دو دوره زمانی مختلف (2065-2046 و 2099-2080) و مقایسه آن نسبت به دوره پایه (2005-1961) از طریق مدل ریزمقیاس گردانی آماری lars-wg در 6 ایستگاه های سینوپتیک منتخب در غرب کشور در سطح سه استان کردستان، کرمانشاه و همدان پرداخته شد. در ارزیابی مدل lars-wg به بررسی میزان خطای داده های مشاهداتی و شبیه سازی با استفاده از معیارهای mae، mse، rmse و r^2 پرداخته شد و با توجه به نتایج حاصل، مدل برای منطقه مورد مطالعه مناسب ارزیابی گردید. نتایج کلی حاصل از بررسی برای دوره های آینده حاکی از کاهش 7/7 درصدی بارش، افزایش 3/4 درجه سلسیوس دمای حداقل و 3/3 درجه سلسیوس دمای حداکثر  به طور متوسط بلندمدت در سطح منطقه مطالعاتی نسبت به دوره پایه می باشد. همچنین بر اساس نتایج حاصل میزان تابش نیز افزایش خواهد یافت که این افزایش به‌طور متوسط بلندمدت در سطح منطقه برابر 0/38 میلی ژول بر مترمربع در روز  است. نتایج حاصل از این پژوهش می تواند کمک فراوانی به حل چالش‌های مدیران و برنامه ریزان منابع آب در دوره‌های آتی نماید.

prediction of climate change in western of iran using downscaling of hadcm3 model under different scenarios

prediction of climate change in western of iran using downscaling of hadcm3 model under different scenarios hassan zohrehvandi 1, ali mohammad khorshiddoust 2, behrouz sari sarraf 31- ph.d student of climatology, university of tabriz, email:  h.zohrehvandi@gmail.com mobile number:+9891815025132 - associate professor of climatology, university of tabriz, email:           mobile number: 3- associate professor of climatology, university of tabriz, email:        mobile number: abstract   considering that water resources are at risk from climate change, the study of temperature and precipitation changes in the coming years can lead to droughts such as droughts, sudden floods, high evaporation and environmental degradation. to this end, global climate models (gcms) are designed to assess climate change. the outputs of these models have low spatial accuracy. in order to increase the spatial accuracy of this data, downscaling methods are used which are divided into statistical and dynamic methods. one of the reasons for using these models is their quick and easy operation compared to other methods. our study area consists of kurdistan, kermanshah and hamedan provinces in the west of the country. in this study, observational data of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation and radiation of 6 synoptic stations in the studied area in the statistical period of 1961 until 2005. in this study, the lars-wg model was used for downscaling of hadcm3 global model data. the lars-wg model is one of the most popular weather generator models that which to generation for maximum and minimum temperature, rainfall and radiation are used daily under current and future climate conditions. this model as a downscaled version of the same process less complex and simulated data input and output, high ability to predict climate change. the hadcm3 model is also a type of atmospheric- oceanic circulation model developed at the hadley center for climate prediction and research, which has a 2.5 degree latitude network at 3.75 degrees longitude. also, three climate change scenarios a1b, a2 and b1 have been used, each of which reflects the characteristics of the world’s economic growth, the world’s population and social awareness. the methodology is that the model receives the monitored data of the basic course; by examining them the statistical characteristics of the data are extracted. then, in order to validate and ensure the model’s capability for the basic statistical period, the model is implemented to re-establish a series of artificial data in the base period. then the outputs to evaluate the performance of the model in the reconstruction of the data, the statistical characteristics of observations to test and compare various criteria. mae, mse, rmse and r2 criteria were used to evaluate and analyze the performance of the downscaling model. the results showed that the accuracy of the model varies in different stations and parameters, so that the model in simulation of temperature and radiation is more suitable than rainfall simulation. also, the model has more successful in simulation of maximum temperature in comparison with minimum temperature. in sum, the results of different evaluation criteria indicate that the lars-wg model has a good accuracy for the downscaling of the parameters studied in the study area. after evaluating the lars-wg model and ensuring its appropriateness, the data was generated by the model for three climate change scenarios using the hadcm3 model. the results of the monthly review of the parameters studied at the station indicate that precipitation in the 2050s at all stations except saralpul zahab and sanandaj stations according to the three scenarios studied in most months except december, january and at some stations, sometimes in november and february, they were lower than the base period, and rainfall is expected to decrease over the 20 years period (2046-2065), but the situation for sanandaj and saralpul zahab stations is somewhat different, which, according to some scenarios, has increased in most months of the year, and according to some scenarios, rainfall has decreased in some months and it seems that the precipitation pattern is shifted the end of the warm season. but the rainfall situation is completely different in the 2080s, and rainfall has decreased in all stations and in most months of the year. the average monthly of the minimum and maximum temperatures as well as the amount of radiation shows that all three parameters will increase in all months of the year based on all three scenarios, as well as in the two decades studied (2080 and 2050) and its rate would increase in the decade than in the previous decade. according to the results, the amount of precipitation decreases in study area and the temperature and radiation will increase as well. the rate of precipitation decrease in the following periods will be 7.7% in the region than in the base period, and the minimum and maximum temperatures in the long-term was increase at the region 3.4 and 3.4 degrees celsius, respectively, compared to the average period of the base. the radiation increase was 0.38 mj /m2 in area level. the results of this research can help to solve the challenges of water resource managers and planners in future periods. keywords: climate change, downscaling, west of iran, general circulation model, lars-wg