مدلسازی اثرات خشکسالی بر معیشت پایدار کشاورزان کوچک مقیاس در سکونتگاه‌های روستایی استان کردستان

هدف کلی این تحقیق، مدلسازی اثرات خشکسالی بر معیشت پایدار کشاورزان کوچک مقیاس در سکونتگاه های روستایی بود. جامعه آماری تحقیق شامل کلیه کشاورزان کوچک مقیاس در روستاهای استان کردستان بود (n=10099). با استفاده از جدول کرجسی و مورگان تعداد 402 نفر از آن ها با روش نمونه گیری تصادفی طبقه ای چند مرحله ای با انتساب متناسب برای مطالعه انتخاب شدند. ابزار اصلی تحقیق پرسشنامه ای بود که روایی آن از طریق روایی محتوایی و روایی سازه و پایایی آن توسط پایایی ترکیبی و آلفای کرونباخ بررسی شد ( alpha;>0.7). تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها به وسیله نرم افزار spsswin18، lisrel8.54، arcgis10.5 و xlstat2016 انجام شد. نتایج آزمون من کندال نشان داد که سطح زیرکشت محصولات آبی و دیم به همراه مقدار تولید محصولات آبی با گذر زمان افزایش یافته است اما بر مقدار تولید محصولات دیم اثر معنی داری از نظر آماری ندارد. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که در بعد اقتصادی بیشترین تاثیر بر توزیع درآمد و هزینه های زندگی بوده است، در بعد اجتماعی بر تعلق مکانی و امنیت و رفاه اجتماعی، بعد محیطی بر آلودگی زیست‌محیطی و منابع سرزمین و در بعد نهادی بیشتر بر همکاری و مشارکت مردم تاثیرگذار بوده است. علاوه بر این نتایج مدلسازی معادلات ساختاری نشان داد که خشکسالی بیشترین تاثیرات را ابعاد معیشت پایدار به ترتیب بر بعد اجتماعی، محیطی، اقتصادی و نهادی دارد.

Modeling Drought Effects on Sustainable Livelihoods of Small Scale Farmers in Rural Settlements of Kurdistan Province

Modeling Drought Effects on Sustainable Livelihoods of Small Scale Farmers in Rural Settlements of Kurdistan Province1. Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Khuzestan Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University2. Professor at Department of Agricultural Management and Development at University of Tehran3. Professor at Department of Agricultural Management and Development at University of Tehran4. Professor at Department of Agricultural Management and Development at University of Tehran Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change are local and contextspecific, though connected to complex processes at multiple temporal and spatial scales. As such, there is a growing awareness that placebased studies of current and past responses to climatic stress can shed light on the capacity of a given system to respond to future climate change. There is also a growing appreciation of the importance of institutions mdash;formal and informal mdash;in shaping adaptation strategies and mediating the adaptive capacity of households and communities. While rural resourcedependent communities have historically coped with climatic fluctuations, whether such coping mechanisms are still successful today, and will be in the future, depends on the structure of supporting institutions and the way in which they mediate access to entitlements. Indeed, most social ndash;ecological systems have undergone dramatic change in the last century due to climatic, landscape, and institutional shifts. Because coping mechanisms are developed in relation to particular landscapes, livelihoods, and institutions, social and ecological changes have altered relations across these elements, impacting the effectiveness of particular coping strategies. For instance, pastoralists have historically deployed a suite of coping mechanisms in response to the highly variable climate of semiarid and arid landscapes. Yet, these capacities may be increasingly compromised in the rangelands of East Africa due to increasing exposure to climate extremes, such as flood and drought and shifting institutional environments. The mechanisms that pastoralists in East Africa historically utilized to cope with climate variability were part of a tightly coupled system where livelihoods, institutions, and landscapes were mutually reinforcing. Pastoralists rsquo; livelihoods were coproduced with a savanna mosaic landscape managed as a common property system by formal and informal customary institutions.Farmers frequently cope with risks due to the uncertainty of climatic conditions .Population growth, changes in agricultural policies, environmental regulations and the degradation of natural resources such as soil and water also present farmers with numerous challenges. Although farmers have experience in coping with a certain degree of uncertainty, increased climate variability and changes may cause severe problems. Drought in particular is a climatic disaster that creates substantial costs for farmers and affects their agricultural systems extensively. Drought is the most complex of all natural hazards . making the arid and semiarid regions of the world vulnerable. Although drought has not been well documented , the resourcedependent sectors such as agriculture are the most vulnerable to the impact of this phenomenon. A review of the longterm annual precipitation trends indicated that drought had a worldwide return frequency of every 20e30 years . However, in the last 50 years, some countries such as Iran and Bangladesh have experienced approximately 27 and 19 drought events, respectively. Therefore, for arid and semiarid regions, drought is a recurrent feature that could lead to the loss of crop production, food shortages and starvation if not managed appropriately. According todrought impacts could be managed at macro (national), mesa (local) and micro (village and household) levels. However, the microlevel management (i.e., what the farmers do in response to drought) is of great importance. A review of the studies of farmers rsquo; decisionmaking in response to climate variability revealed that most research has focused on the decision event and not on the entire process.The main Purpose of this study was to modeling drought effects drought effects on sustainable livelihoods of small scale farmers in rural settlements. Statistical population of this study consisted of all SmallScale Farming in Kurdistan province. Using Kerjcie Morgan sampling table, 402 person were selected as the sample using stratified proportional sampling method. The instrument of the study was a questionnaire which its validity was confirmed by a Content validity and construct validity and its reliability was established by calculating Chronbach's Alpha and Combined reliability Coefficient ( alpha;>0.7). The results of Man Kendall test showed that the level of aquatic and dry crops, along with the amount of crop production, has increased over time but there is no statistically significant effect on dry production. Also, the results showed that in the economic aspect, the greatest impact on distribution of income and living expenses, in the social dimension, on location affiliation and security and social welfare, the environmental dimension has had an impact on environmental pollution and land resources and on institutional aspects more on the cooperation and participation of the people.In addition, the results of structural equation modeling showed that drought had the most impact on sustainability livelihood dimensions, respectively, on social, environmental, economic and institutional dimensions.KeywordsSustainable livelihood, drought, small scale farmers, rural settlements, Kurdistan province