بررسی و دوره بندی ناپایداری دولت‌ها در ایران (3000 ق.م. تا 1600 م.) به‌عنوان بخشی از تعاملات آسیای مرکزی با نواحی مختلف اوراسیا

این مقاله ناپایداری تاریخی دولت‌ها را از علل تاخیر  توسعه تلقی کرده،  از مهم‌ترین عوامل آن را هم‌جواری ایران با جوامع رمه گردان آسیای مرکزی می‌داند و هدفش تبیین تاثیر این عامل بر ناپایداری دولت‌ها در ایران به‌عنوان یکی از جوامع هم‌جوار و متاثر از آسیای مرکزی است. ابتدا 432 دولت از 3000 ق.م. تا 1600 در اوراسیای قاره‌ای (اروپا و آسیا بدون جزایر آن‌ها) شناسایی شد. سپس آن‌ها برحسب میزان اهمیت برای آسیای مرکزی ناحیه بندی، برحسب زمان شروع تاثیرپذیری، 500 ق.م. (زمان اتمام سرزمین بی مدعی در این منطقه)، دوره بندی و با تلفیق آن‌ها، برحسب میزان تاثیرپذیری از دولت‌های آسیای مرکزی به چهار دسته تقسیم شدند: الف) آسیای مرکزی، ب)زیاد متاثر، ج)کم‌ متاثر و د)غیر متاثر. تحلیل‌های آماری معتبر بودن گروه‌بندی‌ها، کاهش میانگین و افزایش ضریب تغییرات عمر دولت‌ها متناسب با افزایش تاثیرپذیری را نشان می‌دهد؛ طوری که میانگین عمر دولت‌ها در گروه‌‌ها گاه حدود 8 برابر یکدیگرند. تحلیل رگرسیونی معلوم کرد این ناحیه بندی و دسته‌بندی به ترتیب حدود 29%  و 43% از تغییرات در عمر دولت‌های اوراسیا را طی 4600 سال توضیح می‌دهند. بررسی ناپایداری دولت در ایران هم به‌عنوان بخشی از ناحیه‌ی هم‌جوارِ آسیای مرکزی در بحث گروه‌بندی‌ها و هم در یک بخش مستقل انجام و برای آن‌یک دوره بندی، شامل 3000 ق.م  -  600 م،  600 - 1000، 1000- 1250 و  بعد از 1250، ارائه می‌شود. حوادث متناظر با مقاطع تغییر دوره‌ها ظهور اسلام، برآمدن سلجوقیان و حملات مغولان است.

state instability in iran (3000 bc to 1600 ad) as part of central asian interactions with other regions of eurasia

numerous studies have indicated that the state instability existence in past of countries has not only delayed their development but also influenced their current level of development. the study of political instability in the eurasian region during the agricultural era (3000 bc to 1600 ad) encompasses a significant portion of the history and the contemporary world geography. it can serve as a basis for examining political instability in the history of iran. many scholars have considered the proximity to the central asian nomadic societies as one of the factors contributing to instability in eurasian countries. some of them argue that the history of these tribes' interactions with neighboring regions forms the core of eurasian history. there are also a limited number of quantitative studies that have encompassed various aspects of these tribes impacts on neighboring communities. there have been numerous studies on the effects of these tribes on iran as well, but none of them have covered this temporal and geographical scope.objective of the researchthe main objective of this research is to investigate political instability in eurasia, particularly in iran, during the agricultural era. it focuses on the central asian nomadic influence tribes on the creation of political instability in eurasia. the research utilizes this framework of interactions and gathered information to periodize political instability in the history of iran.research methodologyin this study, political instability is perceived as a low average lifespan of states and a high coefficient of variations (standard deviation-to-mean ratio). the study considers continental eurasia (including europe and asia, excluding their islands) as the studied region and the agricultural era 3000 bc to 1600 ad as the studied period. to assess the timing and extent of central asian tribes' influence on political instability in eurasian states, a total of 432 eurasian states in the study period were identified. subsequently, the time and extent of central asian tribes' impact on political instability were examined by applying three categorizations to these states: 1) regional categorization based on the importance of the region each government could have for central asian tribes, dividing into central asia, unimportant region, less important region, and highly important region. 2) since the period of significant influence of these tribes on eurasian developments occurred between 500 bc and 1600 ad, states that existed before 500 bc were classified as belonging to the first period, while others belonged to the second period. 3) by combining the previous two categorizations, the states were grouped into four categories: (i)central asian states, (ii)unattractive states, (iii)low unattractive states, and (iv) highly unattractive states.descriptive analysis, two-sample kolmogorov–smirnov test (ks2), and categorical regression were used for data analysis and inference.findingsthe findings regarding regional categorization show the significant differences in the lifespan of states among regions. the average lifespan of states in unimportant regions is more than 3.5 times that of highly important regions, and the coefficient of variation for highly important regions is higher than for other regions. regression results confirm the model and regression coefficients validity, indicating that this four-group categorization explains 29% of the variations among states.