بررسی فرآیند تعمیق بازار سرمایه در دولت دوازدهم و تاثیر آن بر آینده سیاست در ایران

بازار سرمایه می‌تواند بعنوان یکی از موثرترین نهادهای مالی در پویایی صنعت و اقتصاد هر کشور نقش‌آفرینی نماید. آنچه در  پنج ماه اول سال 1399 در ایران مشاهده شد، عزم جدی دولت در اولویت‌بخشی به جایگاه بورس در اقتصاد بود. این مهم به قدری در اولویت قرار گرفت که بعد از مساله کرونا به جدی‌ترین موضوع مورد توجه برنامه‌ریزان اقتصادی و سیاسی کشور تبدیل شد. اگرچه این توجه کم‌نظیر دولت، مدلول مشکلات اقتصادی ناشی از تحریم و تبعات آن همچون کسری بودجه، تورم، رکود و در نهایت شیوع کرونا بود اما از منظری دیگر اثرات آن می‌تواند بعنوان پدیده‌ای سیاسی- اجتماعی در جامعه ایرانی نقش‌آفرین شود. معکوس شدن روند گذشته، نزولی شدن شاخص بورس، زیان‌های سنگین مردم، افزایش بی‌اعتمادی و مدیریت نامطلوب بازار سرمایه که از شهریور 1399 بروز جدی پیدا کرد، همگی بر تسریع روند تسری مساله‌ای اقتصادی به عرصه سیاسی موثر واقع شد. پرسش مقاله این است که فرآیند تعمیق بازار سرمایه در دولت دوازدهم و فراز و نشیب‌های آن، می‌تواند چه تاثیری بر آینده سپهر سیاست در ایران داشته باشد؟ در چارچوب نظری مالیات بر بازار سرمایه و همچنین اعتماد سیاسی و با استفاده از روش تحلیل محتوا بررسی شد و بر این نکته تاکید گردید که حمایت صریح دولت دوازدهم از بازار سرمایه موجب شده است تا با سقوط شاخص بورس، روند اعتماد سیاسی در معرض مخاطره قرار گیرد.

investigating the process of deepening the capital market in the twelfth government and its impact on the future of the politics in iran

the capital market can play a role as one of the most effective financial institutions in the dynamics of industry and economy of any country. the initial idea of establishing the capital market in iran dates back to 1972. but what has been evident in this era is that there was no serious determination to transform the capital market into its true position. despite the various policies of economic prosperity in the past years and principle 44, but in the realization stage; since the governments of iran were in the category of rentier governments, they did not see much need for people's assistance in advancing their economic goals. and vice versa, it was these people who were always waiting to receive government support but what was observed in iran from april 2020 to august was the serious determination of the government to give priority to the place of the stock market in the economy. this issue became such a priority that, after the corona issue, it became the most serious issue for the country's economic and political planners. in order to get out of this situation, the government considered relying on the tax on stock transactions and the prosperity of the capital market. this issue needed to gain the public trust of the people in order to provide the basis for its realization with more participation. the more the trust and public participation of the people increased, the more the government's income from this market increased. but this relationship also has a paradoxical consequence. if the stock market falls, the public and political trust of the people will be affected, which will have important effects on the sphere of iranian politics and society. indeed, although this unparalleled attention of the government implies the economic problems caused by sanctions and its consequences such as budget deficit, inflation, recession and finally the spread of coronavirus, but from another perspective, its effects can play a role as a socio-political phenomenon in iranian society. the important point is that the right or wrong decisions of the government in the field of the stock market in the past years, despite some trials and errors, had little effect on iran's economic and political arena due to the small number of shareholders. but the huge number of iranian shareholders and families in 2020 changed the issue. in this regard, the twelfth government of iran explicitly demanded the serious entry of people into the capital market, and the people eagerly welcomed it in order to preserve and increase the value of their assets, as well as to help the government. this economic trend has had political and social effects on iranian society and if it continues, it can gradually transform people who have a low role in the economic fields into actors with a special spirit of the capital market, including increasing risk-taking, applying financial rationality and frequent calculations of profit and loss, and in the long run, change their attitude from economy to politics and society. but on the other hand, this economic support of the people to the government, which was the result of trusting the government, has paradoxical consequences. the fall of the stock market means a sharp decrease in political trust and the consequences of the downward trend in the relationship between the people and the government. in fact, the widespread presence of the people caused the impact of the successes and failures or the support and shortcomings of the capital market managers and its main actor, which is the government, to increase in the society and gradually spread the changes from the economic field to other areas. an issue that can result from strengthening political and public trust to loss of trust and from strengthening public participation to some security concerns. the same stages that went