بررسی ابعاد و شاخص‌های هیدروپلیتیک رودخانه‌های مرزی ایران با تاکید بر شاخص‌های راهبردی

هیدروپلیتیک بررسی نقش آب در روابط کشورها در چهار مقیاس محلی، ملی، منطقه ای و جهانی است. کشور ایران با دارا بودن 26 رودخانه مرزی و وابستگی حدود 30 درصدی جمعیت کشور به آب حوضه های آبریز مشترک، جزء کشورهایی است که به‌شدت تحت تاثیر تحولات و تغییرات هیدروپلیتیکی در جهان قرار دارد. در این میان امنیت مناطق مرزی، به دلیل قرار گرفتن در مناطق پیرامونی و همچنین وابستگی شدید به آب رودخانه های مرزی بیشتر تحت تاثیر قرار می‌گیرد. بنابراین پژوهش حاضر با روش کیفی و رویکرد توصیفی - تحلیلی و با به کارگیری روش های دلفی، تحلیل ماتریس متقاطع (micmac) و با استفاده از نرم افزار arcgis، به بررسی هیدروپلیتیک رودخانه های مرزی کشور، شاخص ها و مولفه‌های تاثیرگذار بر آن و همچنین شاخص های ریسک و راهبردی پرداخته است.با استفاده از منابع کتابخانه ای و همچنین بهره گیری از تکنیک دلفی و اجرای روش پرسش نامه بیش از 50 شاخص تاثیرگذار بر هیدروپلیتیک رودخانه های مرزی شناسایی شد که در مرحله دوم و سوم دلفی نهایتاً  31 عامل مورد تایید قرار گرفت. با تشکیل تیم خبرگی و مشورت با اساتید این 31 عامل در پنج بُعد «عوامل طبیعی، عوامل انسانی، عوامل ژئوپلیتیکی، عوامل نظامی و عوامل ژئواکونومیکی» دسته بندی شدند. نتایج حاصل از تحلیل ماتریس متقاطع در نرم‌افزار میک مک نشان دهنده شاخص های تاثیرگذار، تاثیرپذیر، هدف، مستقل، نتیجه و به خصوص شاخص های ریسک در هیدروپلیتیک رودخانه های مرزی ایران بوده است که در این میان شاخص های هدف و به‌خصوص شاخص های ریسک، شاخص های راهبردی مهم هستند. بنابراین نتایج حاصل از پژوهش نشان می دهند که؛ نیاز به آب آشامیدنی رودخانه های مرزی، بیکاری و مهاجرت به دلیل کمبود آب در مناطق حوضه های آبریز مشترک، روابط کشورهای پیرامون تحت تاثیر حوضه های آبریز، وجود جمعیت فراوان مردم در حوضه های آبریز مشترک، ساخت سد و معادن در کشورهای بالادست، موقعیت دفاعی و نظامی رودخانه های مرزی ایران، بهره برداری سیاسی و ژئوپلیتیکی از آب توسط کشورهای بالادست و فعالیت گروه های اشرار و تروریستی در کشورهای بالادست مهم ترین شاخص های ریسک در هیدروپلیتیک رودخانه های مرزی ایران هستند.

examining the dimensions and hydropolitical indicators of border rivers of iran with emphasis on strategic indicators

extended abstract introduction hydropolitics is the exploration of the role of water in the relations between countries on four scales: local, national, regional and global. with 26 border rivers and the dependence of about 30% of the country’s population on the water of common watersheds, iran is among the countries that are heavily affected by hydropolitical developments and changes in the world. additionally, the security of the country’s border areas is greatly impacted due to their peripheral location and strong reliance on water from border rivers. hence, this research investigates the hydropolitics of iran’s border rivers, the indicators and components that influence it, and the security consequences on the border areas. the research utilizes qualitative method and descriptive-analytic approach, employing delphi methods, cross-matrix analysis (micmac), and arcgis software to produce maps.materials methodsbased on the purpose, this research is among the applied research and based on the method, it is among the qualitative research, with a descriptive-analytical approach and using the delphi technique and the cross-matrix analysis method. in this research, the authors will analyze the issue by using library resources and written documents related to the topic, while describing and explaining the event, and then while studying the library resources from the questionnaire in order to identify and screen the most important dimensions and hydropolitical indicators of iran’s border rivers, as well as the effectiveness of the indicators will be used. the statistical population of this research includes experts, custodians and elites of the country in the field of water. in this regard, due to the unlimited statistical population and the lack of official information on the number of experts and elites, it is not possible to use cochran’s formula, and the number of 20 people is considered as the statistical population in this research and they are questioned. . due to the type of research and not knowing the full number of the statistical population, the sampling method is &targeted sampling& and the snowball sampling method. in order to analyze and analyze data and information, since this research is one of qualitative researches, in addition to the use of library sources and analysis with a descriptive-analytical approach, methods such as delphi in order to identify dimensions and indicators, as well as the method cross-matrix analysis will be used in future research of effective hydropolitical strategies. in this research, arc gis software is used for map preparation and micmac software is used for data analysis.results discussionthe research findings reveal that more than 50 indicators affecting the hydropolitics of border rivers were identified through the use of library resources, the delphi technique, and a questionnaire. ultimately, 31 factors were confirmed in the second and third stages of the delphi process. these 31 factors were categorized into five dimensions: natural factors, human factors, geopolitical factors, military factors, and geo-economic factors by forming an expert team and consulting with professors.the results of the cross-matrix analysis in micmac software have shown the indicators of influential, influenceable, target, independent, result indicators, and especially risk indicators in the hydropolitics of iran’s border rivers. among these, target indicators and especially risk indicators are important strategic indicators. the indicators of the need for drinking water from the border rivers, unemployment, and migration due to water shortage in the areas of the common catchment basins, the relations of the surrounding countries affected by the catchment basins, the existence of a large population of people in the common catchment basins, the construction of dams and mines in the upstream countries, the defense and military situation of iran’s border rivers, the political and geopolitical exploitation of water by the upstream countries, and the activities of evil and terrorist groups in the upstream countries are the most important risk indicators in the hydropolitics of border rivers of iran.conclusionfinally, the results show that the most important security consequences of the hydropolitics of border rivers on border areas are in environmental, economic, political, social, and cultural dimensions. the most important of these include ethnic tensions on both sides of the border, smuggling of goods and drugs in the border areas, joining terrorist groups and striving for independence, migration from border areas, reduction of agriculture in border areas, growth of poverty in border areas, and as a result, the growth of crime and the increase in the cost of providing security. other consequences include ethnic crises due to spatial and ethnic ties, conflicts over water, marginalization and increase in crime, air pollution, drying up of border wetlands, respiratory problems in border areas, the emptying of borders, and the destruction of the environment in border areas.