تحلیل برنامه ریزی استراتژیک مرزی تمرچین و اثرات آن بر میزان توسعه یافتگی شهرپیرانشهر

هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر بررسی عوامل اولیه موثر مرز تمرچین بر ارتقا توسعه‌یافتگی شهر پیرانشهر است. در این راستا از مطالعات توصیفی تحلیلی، اسنادی و پرسشنامه در چارچوب مدل دلفی و تحلیل‌های نرم‌افزاری برنامه‌ریزی استراتژیک استفاده گردید. پس از گفتمان و رایزنی در چهارچوب دیالکتیکی در باب مسائل شهری با افراد نخبه و آکادمیک و آشنا با وضعیت و شرایط منطقه، 50 نفر به عنوان جامعه‌ی آماری تحقیق، تعداد 23 متغیر در قالب 8 طبقه‌بندی کلّی به‌عنوان متغیرهای اوّلیه‌ی پژوهش شناسایی شدند. به‌منظور اجرای فرآیند کار متغیّرهای اوّلیه، در چارچوب ماتریس اثرات متقاطع در نرم‌افزارهای متاسوات برای برنامه‌ریزی راهبردی، میک‌مک و سناریو ویزارد برای آینده‌نگاری تعریف شدند. شاخص برازش مدل به‌دست‌ آمده در سطح بالا می‌باشد. همچنین با اتّکا به یافته‌های به‌دست ‌آمده، مرز سیرانبند بانه با بیشترین میزان امتیاز بزرگ‌ترین رقیب و شاخص‌های افزایش کیفیت زندگی مرزنشینان و اتخاذ سیاست‌های اقتصادی منطبق با سیاست‌های اقتصاد کلان کشور در افق 1404 بالاترین ارزش را نشان دادند. در نهایت، با در نظر گرفتن نیروهای پیشران کلیدی شناسایی شده، سناریوهای مطلوب، میانه و فاجعه ارائه گردید.

Analyzing the strategic planning of Tamarchin border and its effects on the level of development in Piranshahr City

Extended AbstractIntroductionIt can be argued that among the socially and culturally relevant variables affecting sustainable security and optimal control of border cities, political variables (formulation of the comprehensive plan and other urban plans), physical variables (distance between border cities and central or peripheral areas) and legalvariables (adaptingeconomic policies in accordance with themacroeconomic policies of the country by2025) are the basis for developingmatrix of key properties and scenario planning.In this regard, the importance and necessity of the present study lies in the fact that the future border cities research is a process of systematic and calculated effort and a longterm scientific approach toward good urban governance. It seeks to reach a sufficient understanding of strategic research areas, benefit economy of the country and especially border communities through wise management of space and the introduction of related technologiesand offer desirable scenarios for the development of border cities based on the patterns of democratic and ecosystem management.Accordingly, the present study demonstrates a kind of creativity and innovation in the field of strategic planning based on every aspects of sustainable urban development while emphasizing on the prospective and environmental aspects that are an inseparable part of geography and urban planning studies. Materials & MethodsThe present study seeks to answer the main research question which is, what are the key indicators and factors influencing the development analysis of Piranshahr border town?In this regard, the present study takes advantage of descriptiveanalyticaland documentary investigations of strategic planningalong withrelated questionnaires in the framework of Delphi model and software analysis. Based on a consultation with scholars familiar with the status and conditions of the region within the dialectical framework of urban issues, a statistical population of 50, and 23 variables were identified for the present research. The selected variables were classified in 8 general categorizations as the primary variables of the research.Getting output from the Wizards software based on the scores entered into the matrix, the normalized and the standardized matrices were calculated, and the possible scenarios were categorized based on an analysis of the descriptor compatibility. Then, the goals set for strategic planning of Piranshahr, effective factors in strategy development, a competitive map, level of competitiveness in Tamarchinborderand finally challenges and opportunities of each domain were expressed in the framework of the Meta SWOT Strategic Model.Results & DiscussionBased on experts’ opinions and software output, it can be argued that among the socially and culturally relevant variables affecting sustainable security and optimal control of border cities, political variables (formulation of comprehensive plans and other urban plans), physical variables (distance between border cities and central or peripheral areas) and legalvariables (adaptingeconomic policies in accordance with themacroeconomic policies of the country by2025) are the basis for developingmatrix of key properties and scenario planning.Finally, the status of key driving forces in crossborder strategic planning of Tamarchinborderand its effects on the development of Piranshahr city over the coming 15 years are explained in the form of three desirable, intermediate and disaster scenarios. Also based on the obtained results, Sairanband border in Bane had the highest score in enhancing the quality of life in border cities and adopting economic policies in accordance with the country’s macroeconomic policies by2025. Thus, Sairanbandis the most important rival of Tamarchin border.ConclusionThe present study has proposeda desirable model for the development of Piranshahrborder town using a strategic approach toward the sustainability issue in border cities and taking advantage of indexes such as “cultural, human, political, economic, and physical development” indexes. It alsoapplies the pattern of futures studies used in wizard and strategic scenarios. Thus, factors affecting the level of urban development in Piranshahrwere classified based on 5general classes, subvariables and a 23×23 matrix. So only by putting the indices in the distribution chart, a very favorable situation of the distribution of boundary related variables can be presented. In the context of the above mentioned results and according to the scenario formulation table, it can be concluded that the results of the present study are to a large extent applicable. Moreover, they can be applied for scenariobuilding and guide management toward the development of border towns within the framework of structural planning.