آینده پژوهی در بافت فرسوده شهری مطالعه موردی: ناحیه یک، منطقه 9 شهر تهران

محله‌‌‌هایی که در گذشته اغلب در هسته مرکزی شهرها جای داشتند و زمانی از غنای فرهنگی برخوردار بودند، اکنون با معضلی به نام «بافت فرسوده و ناکارآمد» روبه‌‌رو هستند. در جهان معاصر با پیشرفت سریع علم و تکنولوژی، سیستم برنامه‌‌ریزی شهری نیز با دگرگونی‌‌هایی مواجه شده است و آثار آنها می‌‌تواند جهت پیشرفت شهر چالش برانگیز باشد. برنامه‌‌ریزی‌ شهری که قبلاً مبتنی بر سیستم سنتی بوده است، امروزه به نظر می‌‌رسد از توان و پاسخگویی لازم جهت اصلاح و حل مشکل بافت‌‌های فرسوده برخوردار نیست. بنابراین، رویکرد «آینده‌پژوهی» با شناسایی فرصت‌ها و تهدیدهای آینده این بافت‌ها، به ما کمک می‌کند تا از فرصت‌های آینده به بهترین شکل بهره بگیریم و از پیامدهای منفی بافت‌های فرسوده شهری تا حد امکان جلوگیری نماییم. از این رو، انگیزه و هدف پژوهش حاضر شناخت متغیرهای کلیدی موثر جهت کاهش بافت‌‌های فرسوده و بررسی روابط بین متغیرها و نحوه اثرگذاری بر همدیگر در افق 1416 بوده است. فرآیند حاکم بر این پژوهش از نظر هدف، کاربردی و نوع روش پژوهش، توصیفیتحلیلی است. ماهیت داده‌‌ها کیفی بوده و روش گردآوری داده‌‌ها و اطلاعات به صورت کتابخانه‌‌ای، اسنادی و پیمایشی است. انجام محاسبه‌‌های پیچیده و تجزیه‌ و تحلیل داده‌‌ها مبتنی بر روش تحلیل آثار متقابل و استفاده از نرم‌‌افزار تحلیلی میک‌مک می‌‌باشد. نتایج تحقیق نشان می‌‌دهد، کلیدی‌‌ترین متغیرهای راهبردی جهت کاهش بافت فرسوده ناحیه یک منطقه 9 به ترتیب بیشترین تاثیرگذاری «تغییر دولت‌ها (روی کار آمدن دولت جدید هر چهار سال یکبار)»، «فقدان قانون خاص در ساماندهی بافت فرسوده»، «تعادل‌بخشی و تحقق عدالت اجتماعی»، «ضعف نگرش و دانش مدیران شهری» و «برپایی تشکل‌‌های محلی سازمان‌ یافته و مستمر جهت ترغیب ساکنین به مشارکت» است.

Futures studies on urban wornout textureCase Study: District 9 Area 1, Tehran Municipality

Introduction Neighborhoods that have once lied at the heart of cities and enjoyed cultural richness, now face a problem called "wornout and inefficient urban texture". New needs emerged and old urban textures faced physicalspatial defects. On the one hand, physical decay, social and economic life in problematic and ineffective textures have exacerbated the deterioration of urban life quality and degraded urban ecosystems in old urban textures of Iran. On the other hand, with rapid scientific and technological advancement in the contemporary world, urban planning system has also undergone transformations and the effects of such changes can be challenging for the city progress. Today urban planning, previously based on traditional system, seems to lack the power and the ability to respond to and solve problems of wornout urban textures. Therefore, by identifying the opportunities and threats of the future of these textures, ‘futures studies’ approach will help us to better utilize future opportunities and prevent the negative consequences of old urban textures as much as possible. Thus, the most important issue in studies focusing on the future of this part of urban context is the consideration of other factors, including human factors (residents, owners, beneficiaries, and stakeholders) and their contribution to the longterm planning process. The general purpose of futures research is to create awareness about the external environment in order to understand the gaps, trends, and developed technologies. In this way, we can improve the environment as much as possible.   Materials and Methods The present study sought to identify the key variables in reducing wornout urban texture and to examine the relationships between these variables and their influence on each other in the time horizon of 2037. Therefore, using environmental scanning technique (reviewing articles and other published resources, interviewing experts and monitoring conferences) and examining related literature, the initial and existing variables (160 variables) were extracted from the wornout texture of the 9th district (1st area). The dominant process in this research is applied in terms of purpose, and descriptiveanalytical in terms of research method. The nature of data is qualitative. Data were collected from library sources using documentary and survey methods. Since, it is very difficult and even impossible in some cases to manually calculate the crossimpact matrix, complex calculations and data analysis were performed based on the crossimpact analysis method, using Micmac analysis software.   Discussion and Results Organizing two consultative workshops with experts and managers of wornout texture, information and variables were integrated, resulting in 61 variables classified into six subcategories of economic, social, cultural, managerial, legal and legislative, physical, and political. Thus, in order to extract the main factors affecting the reduction of wornout textures of the area in the horizon of 2037, we entered each variables using Micmac software. Crossimpact analysis matrix (61*61) was created and the degrees of mutual influencing and impressionability were evaluated and ranked by experts and practitioners. In order to arrive at a reliable coefficient of the data validity, the number of iterations was increased up to 5 times to reach one hundred percent desirability and optimization of the matrix. By analyzing data using the software, research results indicate that key strategic and most influential variables for reducing wornout texture in the 1st area of 9th district are "changes of the government " (the comingup of the new government every four years), "lack of specific laws regarding wornout texture and their organization", "balancing and realizing social justice", "weakness of attitudes and knowledge in urban managers" and "establishment of organized and continuous local organizations to encourage residents to participate".   Conclusion Based on the research findings, it can be concluded that only two key and strategic variables (i.e. "changes of the government in every four years" and "good urban governance”) in the 1st area of the 9th district of Tehran played a determinant and influential role. These were considered to be the key players in the system. Therefore, adopting a comprehensive and farreaching approach to the future of wornout textures seems to be vital and necessary.