ارزیابی ریسک پروژه های سدسازی با استفاده از روش پرومته و آنالیز گایا

ﭘﺮوژهﻫﺎی ﺳﺪﺳﺎزی، ﺑﻪ ﻋﻠﺖ اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋﯾﮏ ﺑﻮدن ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ آب، ﭘﺮوژهﻫﺎی ﺑﺴﯿﺎر ﻣﻬﻢ و درﻋﯿﻦﺣﺎل ﭘﺮﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ. ﯾﮑﯽ از ﻋﻮاﻣﻠﯽ ﮐﻪ ﻣﯽﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﭘﺮوژهﻫﺎی ﺑﺰرگ را ازﻟﺤﺎظ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی، ﻣﻘﺮونﺑﻪﺻﺮﻓﻪ ﮐﻨﺪ، ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ و رﺗﺒﻪ ﺑﻨﺪی رﯾﺴﮏ ﻫﺎی ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ آن ﭘﺮوژه ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﭘﺮوژهﻫﺎی ﺳﺪﺳﺎزی ﺑﺎ ﺻﺮف زﻣﺎن و ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪﻫﺎی زﯾﺎد و ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﻣﮑﺎﻧﯽ ﭘﯿﭽﯿﺪه، دارای رﯾﺴﮏ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮی ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﭘﺮوژهﻫﺎی ﻋﻤﺮاﻧﯽ ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ. از اﯾﻦرو در اﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺑﻪ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ و ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ اﻫﻤﯿﺖ رﯾﺴﮏﻫﺎ و رﺗﺒﻪﺑﻨﺪی آنﻫﺎ در ﭘﺮوژهﻫﺎی ﺳﺪﺳﺎزی، ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮی ﭼﻨﺪ ﻣﻌﯿﺎره ﭘﺮوﻣﺘﻪ و آﻧﺎﻟﯿﺰ ﮔﺎﯾﺎ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮای ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ رﯾﺴﮏ ﭘﺮوژهﻫﺎی ﺳﺪﺳﺎزی ﻻزم اﺳﺖ اﺑﺘﺪا اﻧﻮاع رﯾﺴﮏﻫﺎ در ﭘﺮوژهﻫﺎ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻣﯽﺷﻮﻧﺪ ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر رﯾﺴﮏﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از دادهﻫﺎی ﭘﮋوﻫﺶﻫﺎی ﭘﯿﺸﯿﻦ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻣﺼﺎﺣﺒﻪ ﺑﺎ ﮐﺎرﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎن ﺣﻮزه ﺳﺪﺳﺎزی اﺳﺘﺨﺮاجﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﻧﻬﺎﯾﯽ رﯾﺴﮏﻫﺎ ﺑﻪوﺳﯿﻠﻪ ﻏﺮﺑﺎلﮔﺮی از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ روش دﻟﻔﯽ ﻓﺎزی اﻧﺠﺎمﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﺎ روش ﭘﺮوﻣﺘﻪ و آﻧﺎﻟﯿﺰ ﮔﺎﯾﺎ، رﺗﺒﻪ رﯾﺴﮏﻫﺎ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ و ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ آنﻫﺎ ﺑﺮ ﭘﺮوژه ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﺗﺤﺮﯾﻢ (0.4951 =phi )، ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻤﺎت ﮐﻼن اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی (0.4525 =phi )، ﺷﮑﺴﺖ ﺳﺪ (0.3834 =phi )، روﮔﺬری ﺳﺪ (0.2988 =phi )، ﺣﺠﻢ دﺑﯽ زﯾﺎد (0.2297 =phi )، ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ژﺋﻮﺗﮑﻨﯿﮑﯽ (0.2297 =phi )، ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮ ﺣﺠﻢ ﺳﯿﻼب ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ (0.1606 =phi )، ارﺗﻔﺎع ﺳﯿﻼب (0.1606 =phi ) و ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮ ﺑﺎران ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ (0.1549 =phi ) ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ دارای اوﻟﻮﯾﺖ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮی ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﯾﺮ رﯾﺴﮏ ﻫﺎ در زﻣﯿﻨﻪ ﺳﺪﺳﺎزی ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ اﯾﻦ ﺑﻮد ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش ﭘﺮوﻣﺘﻪ و آﻧﺎﻟﯿﺰ ﮔﺎﯾﺎ ﻣﯽﺗﻮان ﺑﺎ دﻗﺖ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻗﺒﻮﻟﯽ ﺑﻪ رﺗﺒﻪﺑﻨﺪی رﯾﺴﮏ ﭘﺮوژهﻫﺎی ﺳﺪﺳﺎزی و ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﭘﺮوژهﻫﺎی ﻋﻤﺮاﻧﯽ ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﻮد.

risk evaluation of dam construction projects using promethee method and gaia analysis

due to the strategic nature of water supply, dam construction projects are very important and at the same time costly projects. various project-related risks are important factors affecting the economic viability of construction projects. dam construction projects have a high risk among construction projects due to the need to spend a lot of time and money, as well as the appropriate quality and sometimes complex spatial conditions of the construction site. this research identifies and determines the importance of risks and their ranking in dam construction projects, using promethee multi-criteria decision-making method and gaia analysis. to evaluate project risk, firstly, it is necessary to identify the types of risks in projects. risks have been extracted using data from earlier researches as well as interviews with experts in the field of dam construction. the final selection of risks has been done by screening through fuzzy delphi method. then the ranking of risks and their impact on the project is determined using the promethee method and gaia analysis. the results represented that exchange rate change, sanctions, geotechnical conditions, overpass and dam failure are the most important risks in dam construction projects. the results also indicated that the use of the promethee method and gaia analysis can accurately rank the risk of dam projects and other construction projects.