PETROLDEN ALINAN VERGİNİN DIŞALIM ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: 1998 YILI İÇİN İKİ FARKLI GİRDİ-ÇIKTI VERİSİYLE BİR İNCELEME

Findings with the i-o model decomposing import demand generation by origin and destination revealed that petroleum products sector was a far outlier as the domestic destination sector and raw petroleum was significant as the origin sector in the turkish economy during 1973-1996. furthermore findings with the i-o model decomposition model incorporating relative price effects indicated that petroleum products were leading in price increases in the same era. these exercises were carried with input-output data in producers’ prices. a similar work done with the input-output data in basic prices for 1998 however found that turkey’s dependence on oil imports was not outstanding, though still significant. this controversial finding is the starting point of this paper. turkey imported about 90 % of its oil in the 1990s and even more in the 2000s. oil price data show that taxes amount to 70-75 % of the unit price. the share of petroleum products taxes in total indirect taxes was 30 % in 1998, which amounts to 12 % in total tax revenues. although the controversy might be due to several factors such as difference in valuation (producers’ versus basic prices) and/or changing patterns in energy intensity (and/or substitution) and/or turkey’s entrance to customs union with the eu in 1996, this paper focuses on the impact of the tax component. it is an attempt to gain further insight into the technological aspect of oil dependency of the economy, with price distortions due to indirect taxes accounted for. we develop a methodology which defines the discrepancies between technical coefficients based on data in basic prices and in producers’ prices in terms of taxes incurred during interindustrial transactions. the unique set of data that we have is two i-o tables for 1998, one in basic prices and the other producers’ prices. we find that import generation coefficients are generally larger with data in basic prices. hence we might have even underestimated dependency on oil imports in the past period.