ارزیابی چالش‌های اثرگذار بر تغییر الگوی اسکان و پیامدهای آن بر ساختار توسعه پایدار مناطق مرزی مطالعه موردی: کلان‌شهر ارومیه

زمینه و هدف: برآیند برنامه‌ریزی‌های توسعه نشان می‌دهد که اهداف برنامه‌ریزی منطقه‌ای شامل دستیابی به توسعه پایدار، تعادل منطقه‌ای، توزیع مناسب فعالیت‌ها و استفاده حداکثر از قابلیت‌های محیطی محقق نشده است. پژوهش حاضر با هدف ارزیابی چالش‌های اثرگذار بر تغییر الگوی اسکان و پیامدهای آن بر ساختار توسعه پایدار مناطق مرزی انجام شد.روش: این پژوهش از نظر هدف کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت، تحلیلی و اکتشافی است. شیوه‌های گردآوری مبتنی بر پیمایش و مصاحبه است. جامعه آماری شهروندان کلان‌شهر ارومیه و روش نمونه‌گیری خوشه‌ای است. جهت تحلیل نتایج از ضریب همبستگی پیرسون، t تک نمونه‌ای، تحلیل واریانس و آزمون تعقیبی شفه و معادلات ساختاری استفاده‌شده است.یافته‌ها: مطابق نتایج، تهدید منابع آب منطقه‌ای، ناپایداری منابع اکولوژیک، فقدان فرهنگ مشارکت در برنامه‌ریزی، تامین بودجه و مدیریت توسعه و تداوم گرمایش، 4 چالش اصلی اثرگذار بر الگوی اسکان خواهند بود. مطابق نتایج بین میزان تغییرات الگوی اسکان با سطح توسعه پایدار ارتباط معناداری وجود دارد. در بافت حوزه مداخله مستقیم و حوزه فراگیر به ترتیب با ضرایب همبستگی 0.894 و 0.761 مثبت و معنادار است اما در بافت حوزه فراگیر با ضریب 0.347- منفی و معنادار می‌باشد.نتایج: میزان سطح توسعه پایدار در دو بافت حوزه مداخله و فراگیر از ملاک (70) پایین‌تر است اما حوزه بلافصل از مقدار ملاک بالاتر است. با توجه به نتایج آزمون anova، سطح معنی‌داری متغیر بافت شهری و سه مولفه آن (sig<0/05) اختلاف معناداری بین چالش‌های اثرگذار و مولفه‌های آن بر توسعه پایدار بافت‌های 3 گانه شهر وجود دارد.

evaluation of the affecting challenges on the settlement change pattern and its consequences on the structure of sustainable development of border areas the case study a urmia metropolis

background and aim: the results of development planning show that the goals of regional planning including achieving sustainable development, regional balance, appropriate distribution of activities and maximum use of environmental capabilities have not been achieved. the current research was conducted to evaluate the challenges affecting the change of the settlement pattern and its consequences on the sustainable development structure of the border areas.methodology: this research is applied in terms of purpose and analytical and exploratory. collection methods are based on surveys and interviews. the statistical population of citizens of urmia metropolis and the sampling method is cluster sampling. to analyze the results, pearson’s correlation coefficient, single-sample t, analysis of variance, sheffe’s post hoc test and structural equations were used.results: according to the results, threats to regional water resources, instability of ecological resources, lack of a culture of participation in planning, funding and management of development and continuation of heating will be the 4 main challenges affecting the settlement pattern. according to the results, there is a significant relationship between the amount of changes in the settlement pattern and the level of sustainable development. it is positive and significant in the context of direct intervention and the comprehensive field with correlation coefficients of 0.894 and 0.761 respectively. still, in the context of the comprehensive field, it is negative and significant with a coefficient of -0.347.conclusion: the level of sustainable development in the two contexts of the intervention and inclusive areas is lower than the criterion (70), but the immediate area is higher than the criterion value. according to the results of the anova test, the significance level of the urban background and aim: the results of development planning show that the goals of regional planning including achieving sustainable development, regional balance, appropriate distribution of activities and maximum use of environmental capabilities have not been achieved. the current research was conducted to evaluate the challenges affecting the change of the settlement pattern and its consequences on the sustainable development structure of the border areas.methodology: this research is applied in terms of purpose and analytical and exploratory. collection methods are based on surveys and interviews. the statistical population of citizens of urmia metropolis and the sampling method is cluster sampling. to analyze the results, pearson's correlation coefficient, single-sample t, analysis of variance, sheffe's post hoc test and structural equations were used.results: according to the results, threats to regional water resources, instability of ecological resources, lack of a culture of participation in planning, funding and management of development and continuation of heating will be the 4 main challenges affecting the settlement pattern. according to the results, there is a significant relationship between the amount of changes in the settlement pattern and the level of sustainable development. it is positive and significant in the context of direct intervention and the comprehensive field with correlation coefficients of 0.894 and 0.761 respectively. still, in the context of the comprehensive field, it is negative and significant with a coefficient of -0.347.conclusion: the level of sustainable development in the two contexts of the intervention and inclusive areas is lower than the criterion (70), but the immediate area is higher than the criterion value. according to the results of the anova test, the significance level of the urban context variable and its three components (sig<0.05) has a significant difference between the challenges and its components on the sustainable development of the three city contexts.