بررسی علل و روند همگرایی اسرائیل و اعراب و پیامدهای امنیتی آن برای ایران

از زمان تاسیس اسرائیل، طیفی از رخدادها نظیر جنگ، منازعه، اتحاد و ائتلاف گرفته تا آتش‌بس، مذاکرات و توافقنامه‌های متعدد صلح دو یا چندجانبه و در نهایت وابستگی متقابل و همگرایی به روابط اسرائیل و اعراب شکل داده است. بررسی عمیق این رخدادها فرایندی از منازعه و جنگ به صلح و همگرایی را متجلی می‌سازد، روندی حائز اهمیت که دیدگاه‌‌های بسیاری از اندیشمندان روابط بین‌الملل و سیاستمداران را به چالش کشیده است. بنابراین با توجه به درهم تنیدگی و پیچیدگی روابط بین‌الدولی در خاورمیانه، پاسخ به سه مساله علل همگرایی، چگونگی همگرایی و چیستی پیامدهای امنیتی همگرایی اسرائیل و اعراب برای ایران بسیار مهم و نیازمند بررسی علمی است که محورهای اصلی این پژوهش را نیز شکل داده است. نتایج حاصل از این پژوهش که براساس رویکردی تحلیلی تبیینی و با اتکاء بر روش تحلیل ‌روند انجام شده است، نشان می‌دهد که عوامل سه وجهی محدودیت‌های راهبردی اسرائیل، الزامات و خواست کشورهای عربی و الزامات مشترک، صلح و همگرایی بین دو طرف را به صورت همزمان ایجاد کرده است. فرایند همگرایی به صورت تدریجی، چندبعدی، رسمی، عمیق و چندسطحی توسعه و تکامل یافته است که مهمترین پیامدهای امنیتی آن برای ایران تضعیف جبهه مقاومت به رهبری ایران، محاصره و موازنه تهدید ایران و بازتعریف ساختار امنیتی منطقه و تضعیف نقش ایران در این ساختار بوده است..

the causes and process of israel–arab integration and its security implications for iran

introduction in recent decades, there has been an increasing integration between israel and arab states. this process stands in sharp contrast to the less successful and often unstable efforts at integration elsewhere in the middle east. unlike these inconsistent attempts, the integration between israel and the arabs has shown a steady and progressive trajectory, with no clear signs of instability. this development raises several important questions: what factors have facilitated the israel–arab integration? how has the integration process unfolded between the parties? and what are its security implications for iran? addressing these questions could help resolve various regional challenges, remove obstacles to integration efforts, and potentially offer a new model for fostering future cooperation in the middle east.literature reviewa number of studies have examined the causes of peace and the development of israel–arab relations, as well as its implications for iran, such as “saudi arabia’s alignment with israel from the perspective of international relations theories” (haji-yousfi nemati, 2019) and “the road to normalization: the importance of the united arab emirates’ neoliberal foreign policy in the normalization with israel: 2004–2020” (traub et al., 2022). however, none of these studies explored the process of integration in a way that clearly defines the nature and characteristics of the integration model between israel and the arabs states.materials and methodsthe current research adopted a descriptive–explanatory approach, drawing on the qualitative principles of trend analysis. to collect the data, it relied on a library research method, using objective facts related to integration and an analysis of the historical relations between the parties. moreover, neofunctionalism was used as the theoretical framework.  neofunctionalism, a branch of regional integration theory, emphasizes several key components: integration as a process, the initiation of integration through technical and functional areas, the potential to extend into political domains, and the significant roles played by state actors and non-governmental elites. these components align closely with many characteristics of the current state and process of integration between israel and the arab states. therefore, neofunctionalism serves as an effective framework for analyzing this integration, offering a valuable theoretical tool for explaining the emerging pattern of israel–arab integration.  results and discussionthe findings indicated that several factors have contributed to the integration and the strengthening of ties between israel and the arab states. these factors can be analyzed across three dimensions. the first is israel’s strategic limitations, which include a lack of strategic depth, weak regional communication, and isolation. the second dimension concerns the motivations of the arab countries, which include the need to manage crises, end conflicts, establish stability and security, gain the support of global powers, consider different perspectives of new leaders, empower younger generations of leaders, and respond to generational changes. the third dimension involves common interests between israel and the arab states, such as addressing environmental and energy challenges, enhancing intelligence and security cooperation, dealing with political changes in the middle east, navigating regionalism and globalization, and responding to the influence of major powers. moreover, the process of integration between israel and the arab states has been gradual and multifaceted. it began with non-sensitive, non-security areas and expanded into more sensitive and security-related domains as trust developed over time. the resulting integration is both multi-layered and multi-level, encompassing individual–national, non-governmental, and governmental aspects. what began as covert and informal integration has evolved into open and official integration. this growing integration has several security implications for iran. these include the weakening of the resistance front traditionally led by iran, increased regional encirclement and pressure on iran, and a redefinition of the middle east’s security architecture alongside the diminishing influence of iran.  conclusiongiven the absence of a shared identity, incongruent social and political structures, conflicts, and political complexities that have historically hindered integration in the middle east, the establishment of sustained and multidimensional integration between israel and the arab states holds significant importance. first, this integration has advanced mutual interests and deepened interdependence between the parties. second, it has fostered alliance and unity in the face of common threats. third, it has increased political and security pressure on iran, presenting new challenges to its position in the region in addition, analyzing the development of integration between israel and the arab states serves several critical functions. it underscores the importance of recognizing integration trends in the middle east as a foundation for strategic policymaking and management, as well as a guide for shaping appropriate foreign policy. this analysis highlights the profound effect of integration and interdependence in promoting peace and removing barriers to common goals. finally, it illustrates how regionalism and globalization influence the integration process, offering valuable insights for foreign policy decision-makers. by understanding these forces, policymakers can better leverage the integration mechanism in ways that align with their strategic environment and help achieve national interests.