نقش‌آفرینی چین در منطقه خلیج فارس و تاثیر آن بر امنیت منطقه‌ای ایران

منطقه خلیج فارس به دلایل ژئوپلیتیکی و ژئواستراتژیکی از دیرباز مورد توجه قدرت‌های بزرگ بوده است. اکنون به دنبال برخی تحولات جدید و فاصله گرفتن عربستان از آمریکا و همزمان نزدیک شدن این کشور به چین به‌عنوان یکی دیگر از قدرت‌های بزرگ که به دنبال نظم‌سازی در منطقه است، پرسش این است که نقش‌آفرینی چین در منطقه خلیج فارس چه تاثیری بر امنیت منطقه‌ای ایران خواهد داشت؟‌ پاسخ به این پرسش، مستلزم تعریف و تقسیم‌بندی ابعاد امنیت منطقه‌ای ایران است. لذا این فرضیه مطرح می‌شود که نقش‌آفرینی چین که طی سال‌های اخیر و به‌ویژه از اواخر سال 2022 وارد فاز جدیدی شده است،‌ ممکن است اثرات مخاطره‌آمیزی بر امنیت منطقه‌ای ایران در حوزه‌های نظامی داشته باشد، اما همزمان می‌تواند باعث افزایش امنیت منطقه‌ای ایران از منظر سیاسی و اقتصادی شود. بر این اساس در صورتی که حضور چین صرفا اقتصادی و سیاسی باشد، امنیت منطقه‌ای ایران افزایش می‌یابد، اما اگر این حضور نظامی باشد می‌تواند تهدیدی برای امنیت منطقه‌ای ایران باشد. رویکرد این پژوهش تحلیلی-تبیینی، روش آن کیفی و شیوه گردآوری اطلاعات به صورت کتابخانه‌ای می‌باشد.

china’s role in the persian gulf region and its impact on iran’s regional security

introductionsince the early 1990s, when china became a major importer of energy, the country’s focus on the persian gulf region has intensified. this is because the persian gulf holds approximately two-thirds of the world’s proven oil reserves and one-third of its proven natural gas reserves. china is currently the world’s largest importer of oil, and by 2023, its dependence on imported oil had risen to 72%. more than 50% of china’s oil imports, and just over a third of its total oil consumption, come from the persian gulf countries. as a result, beijing has used various means to strengthen its foothold in the economy and energy fields of the persian gulf countries. although bilateral relations between iran and china have been growing, china has expanded ties with nations such as saudi arabia and the united arab emirates—along with actions like supporting the uae’s position on the three disputed iranian islands. this dynamic raises the question: what are the consequences of china’s presence and role in the persian gulf region for iran’s regional security?literature reviewsaleh and yazdanshenas (2023) argued that the primary motivation behind the comprehensive strategic partnership between china and iran is their shared opposition to american hegemony, particularly from tehran’s perspective. they suggest that this dynamic is reshaping the security structure of the middle east. in an analysis of saudi perspectives on the growing iran–china relations, houghton (2022) stated that balancing relations with regional rivals and maintaining ties beyond security conflicts among regional actors is a consistent pattern in china’s approach to the persian gulf and the broader middle east. according to azimifar et al. (2021), china’s foreign policy in the persian gulf region is shaped by its political and economic ambitions to counter american hegemony. this alignment has led china to support iran’s national security interests in response to regional developments and to acknowledge iran’s security concerns.materials and methodsthe present study adopted an analytical–explanatory approach and a qualitative method. the data was collected through library research. the security theory proposed by the copenhagen school was employed as the theoretical framework. unlike mainstream approaches, the copenhagen’s theory offers a broader perspective on security, considering dimensions beyond the military. it is also better suited to explaining the topic of this research due to its focus on regional-level analysis.results and discussion the study categorized and analyzed the reasons for china’s involvement in the persian gulf region across four dimensions: energy security, regional order, global transit control, and legitimization of restrictive policies against chinese muslims. it then examined the impact of china’s role on iran’s regional security in three areas: military, economic, and political. the research findings indicated that if china’s presence in the persian gulf region is primarily related to political or economic factors, it could enhance iran’s regional security in these dimensions. however, if china’s presence is military in nature, it could pose a threat to iran’s regional security.conclusionconsidering the findings, iran’s regional policy approach should focus on the limited military presence of china in areas close to its borders, similar to the approach adopted to deal with the u.s. presence in the region. these efforts will only be effective if iran actively works to resolve security conflicts with persian gulf countries and is able to encourage, convince, or persuade regional nations to establish an independent security system, regardless of the presence of great powers. while china’s increasing presence in the region could bring economic benefits to iran, it is essential to create balanced and multidimensional opportunities for cooperation. interaction with other extra-regional powers, such as russia, european countries, and india, should also remain a key consideration for iran’s foreign policy decision-makers.