تبیین دلایل تسلط دوباره طالبان بر افغانستان بر اساس نظریه ادواری دکمجیان

افغانستان در دو دهه اخیر از حمله آمریکا در سال 2001 و سقوط طالبان تا تسلط دوباره طالبان در سال 2021، تحولات بسیاری را تجربه کرد. نتیجه این تحولات و بحران‌های سیاسی نه‌تنها موجب تغییر مناسبات و روندهای گذشته نشده بلکه در نهایت تسلط دوباره طالبان بر افغانستان را در پی داشته است. نظرات زیادی با هدف تبیین این تحولات بیان شده که بخش عمده‌ای، خلاء قدرت ناشی از خروج شتاب‌زده آمریکا را دلیل اصلی سقوط دولت ملی و قدرت‌یابی دوباره طالبان می‌دانند. اما به نظر می‌رسد این امر فقط شتاب‌دهنده به تحولات مذکور بوده است. هدف مقاله تبیین دلایل تسلط دوباره طالبان بر افغانستان برا اساس نظریه ادواری دکمجیان است. پرسش پژوهش آن است که دلایل تسلط مجدد طالبان بر افغانستان بر اساس نظریه ادواری دکمجیان چیست؟ روش پژوهش، کیفی و از نوع تحلیل اسنادی و ابزار گردآوری داده‌ها و فیش‌برداری است. یافته‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که بحران‌های اجتماعی ناشی از محیط بحران شامل بحران هویت، بحران مشروعیت، سوء‌مدیریت حاکمان و فشار و سرکوب، تضاد طبقاتی، ضعف نظامی و بحران فرهنگ در افغانستان موجب ظهور و تسلط دوباره طالبان بر افغانستان به مثابه پاسخی بنیادگرایانه شده است.

explaining the reasons behind the re-domination of the taliban in afghanistan based on dekmejian’s theory of periodic movements

introductionfollowing the american invasion of afghanistan in 2001 and the subsequent overthrow of the taliban government, extensive efforts were made to rebuild the afghan nation-state and establish a democratic political system. however, over the past two decades, these endeavors failed to foster the formation of a national unity government. moreover, the initial impetus behind the u.s. intervention, namely ousting and destroying the taliban, gradually receded in priority. this shift became evident particularly after trump assumed office, as the policy of withdrawal from afghanistan and negotiations with the taliban gained momentum. upon biden’s inauguration, the policy of withdrawal from afghanistan accelerated, despite both the pentagon and the afghan government stressing the necessity of continued american support for kabul. this approach provided the taliban with a good opportunity to swiftly seize control of various districts across afghanistan, culminating in their complete domination and the resurgence of the islamic emirate. accordingly, various analyses emerged to explain the re-domination of the taliban in afghanistan. while the re-domination is undoubtedly influenced by a combination of external and internal factors, the pivotal role of external factors has been emphasized, overshadowing the examination of internal factors. although america’s withdrawal from afghanistan seems to have catalyzed and expedited this process, the primary causes of the taliban resurgence in afghanistan lie within internal dynamics. in this respect, the present study aimed to investigate the internal factors contributing to the resurgence and re-domination of the taliban in afghanistan. the main research question is: what are the reasons behind the taliban resurgence in afghanistan through the lens of dekmejian’s theory of periodic movements?a great number of researches have delved into the taliban government and its trajectory in afghanistan (e.g., hossein-khani, 2019; shafie, 2018; shafie eiduzayi, 2012). more specifically, the taliban resurgence in 2021 has been the subject of analysis in several studies (e.g., arian, 2022; bagheri-dolatabadi, 2022; dehzad, 2022; moghaddas, 2022). these studies explained the various internal and external factors behind the emergence and development of the taliban, as well as their subsequent reassertion of control over the afghan state. however, there is no comprehensive and systematic study grounded in a theoretical framework.relying on dekmejian’s theory of periodic movements, the present study aimed to analyze the resurgence of the taliban in afghanistan as a fundamentalist response. dekmejian posits that the nature, scope, and intensity of fundamentalist responses are contingent upon the six attributes of the crisis environment, including identity crisis, legitimacy crisis, misrule/coercion, class conflict, military impotence, and culture crisis (dekmejian, 1995, p. 6).materials and methodsas a descriptive–explanatory inquiry, the present research relied on a library–documentary method to examine the afghan crisis environment and the reasons contributing to the re-domination of the taliban.results and discussionsince gaining independence, afghanistan has experienced a tumultuous political and social history. key milestones before 2001 include its separation from iran, the soviet invasion leading to the establishment of a communist government, the subsequent soviet withdrawal and rise of the mujahideen government, and finally, the collapse of the mujahideen regime and the emergence of the taliban government.