ارائه سناریوهای پشتیبان سیاست‌ گذاری مبتنی ‌بر رویکرد مطالعات آینده

ﻧﻘﺶ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت آﯾﻨﺪه در اﺗﺨﺎذ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎی ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺮای آﯾﻨﺪهﻫﺎی ﻧﺎﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ و دارای ﻋﺪم ﻗﻄﻌﯿﺖ، اﻣﺮی اﻧﮑﺎرﻧﺎﭘﺬﯾﺮ اﺳﺖ؛ اﻣﺎ ﭘﯿﻮﻧﺪ ﺿﻌﯿﻒ اﯾﻦ داﻧﺶ ﺑﺎ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﮔﺬاری ﯾﮑﯽ از ﺑﺰرﮔﺘﺮﯾﻦ ﭼﺎﻟﺶﻫﺎﯾﯽ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺸﮕﺮان ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت آﯾﻨﺪه ﺑﺎ آن روﺑﺮو ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ. از اﯾﻦرو، ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ، ﺑﻪ دﻧﺒﺎل اراﺋﻪ روﯾﮑﺮدی ﮐﺎرﯾﺮدی ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﮐﺎرﺑﺴﺖ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت آﯾﻨﺪه در ﻣﺤﯿﻂ واﻗﻌﯽ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﮔﺬاری اﺳﺖ. از آﻧﺠﺎ ﮐﻪ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﮔﺎﻣﯽ ﻣﻬﻢ در ﻓﺮآﯾﻨﺪ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺘﮕﺬاری ﺑﻮده و از ﺳﻮی دﯾﮕﺮ ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﻌﺘﺒﺮ، ﻋﺪم ﮐﺎرﺑﺴﺖ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت آﯾﻨﺪه در ﻓﺮاﯾﻨﺪ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﮔﺬاری ﻧﺎﺷﯽ از ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺿﻌﯿﻒ ﻣﯿﺎن ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ و ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت آﯾﻨﺪه اﺳﺖ، ﻟﺬا در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﯿﺎن ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت آﯾﻨﺪه و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﺪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﺟﻬﺖ ﻧﯿﻞ ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ ﻫﺪف ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت ﮐﺘﺎﺑﺨﺎﻧﻪای، 10 ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﻬﺒﻮد دﻫﻨﺪه ﭘﯿﻮﻧﺪ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت آﯾﻨﺪه و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ و ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮوه ﮐﺎﻧﻮﻧﯽ، 8 ﻋﺎﻣﻞ اﺻﻠﯽ ﺗﺎﯾﯿﺪ و ﺑﺪﯾﻞﻫﺎی آن اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج ﺷﺪﻧﺪ. در اداﻣﻪ ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻧﮕﺎری و ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮوﯾﺰارد، ﭼﻬﺎر ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﺳﺎزﮔﺎر ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس ﻋﺪمﻗﻄﻌﯿﺖﻫﺎی: »ﻧﻮع ﻧﮕﺎه و ﻗﻀﺎوت ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ آﯾﻨﺪه«، »ﻧﻮع ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ«، »ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﻣﺤﯿﻂ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﮔﺬاری ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ آﯾﻨﺪه«، »روﯾﮑﺮد ﺑﺎزﯾﮕﺮان ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ آﯾﻨﺪه«، »درک ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ در ﻣﻮاﺟﻬﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻋﺎت آﯾﻨﺪه«، »ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﻧﻬﺎدی ﺑﺎز ﺑﻮدن ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ آﻟﺘﺮﻧﺎﺗﯿﻮﻫﺎ«، »ﺗﻤﺮﮐﺰ زﻣﺎﻧﯽ« و »ﺳﻄﺢ ﻋﺪم ﻗﻄﻌﯿﺖ«، ﺑﺎ اﺳﺎﻣﯽ »آﯾﻨﺪهﺷﻨﺎﺳﯽ«، »ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ«، »آﯾﻨﺪهﻧﮕﺎری« و »آﯾﻨﺪهﭘﮋوﻫﯽ« و 7 ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮی ﺑﯿﻨﺎﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﻧﺰدﯾﮏ ﺑﻪ ﻓﻀﺎی واﻗﻌﯽ ﺑﺎ ﻋﻨﺎوﯾﻦ »آﯾﻨﺪهﺷﻨﺎﺳﯽ ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮی«، »ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺳﺮیزﻣﺎﻧﯽ«، »ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﻋﻠﯽوﻣﻌﻠﻮﻟﯽ«، »ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﻗﻀﺎوﺗﯽ«، »آﯾﻨﺪهﻧﮕﺎری ﻣﺪلﻣﺤﻮر«، »آﯾﻨﺪهﻧﮕﺎری ﭘﻮﯾﺎ« و »آﯾﻨﺪهﻧﮕﺎری ﺑﺎز« ﺑﻪ دﺳﺖ آﻣﺪ. اﯾﻦ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎ، ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﮔﺬاران را ﻗﺎدر ﻣﯽﺳﺎزﻧﺪ در ﻣﺨﺘﺼﺎتﻫﺎی ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮی، ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ و در ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﮔﺬاری دﻗﯿﻖﺗﺮی اﻧﺠﺎم داده و راﻫﺒﺮدﻫﺎی ﺧﻮد را در ﻣﻮرد ﺗﻬﺪﯾﺪﻫﺎ و ﻓﺮﺻﺖﻫﺎی آﯾﻨﺪه ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ﺑﺨﺸﻨﺪ.

using supportive scenarios for policy making based on futures studies

it has long been recognized that the role of futures studies in order to appropriate policies for unknown and uncertain futures is undeniable. but the weak link of this knowledge with policy-making is one of the biggest challenges that researchers face in the futures studies. therefore, the current research seeks to provide a career approach in order to apply futures studies in the contextual environment. since policy analysis is an important step in the policy-making process and on the other hand, based on reliable sources, not using futures studies in the policy-making process is due to the weak link between policy analysis and futures studies, so in this research, improving the link between futures studies and policy analysis is considered. in order to achieve this goal, using library studies, ten factors improving the link of futures studies and policy analysis were identified, and then, using the opinion of the focus group, eight main factors were confirmed and their alternatives were extracted. in the following, using the scenario planning method and scenario wizard software, four consistent scenarios based on uncertainties: type of view and judgment towards the future, type of policy analysis, conditions of the policy environment towards the future, actors' approach towards the future , understanding the system in the face of future issues, institutional conditions of openness to alternatives, time focus and uncertainty level, with the names futurology, forecasting, foresight and futures research and seven intermediate scenarios close to the real space were obtained with the titles of interpretive futurology, time series forecasting, cause & effect forecasting, judgmental forecasting, model-based foresight, dynamic foresight and open foresight. these scenarios enable policy makers to conduct more accurate policy analysis and policy analysis in different decision-making coordinates, and to improve their strategies regarding future threats and opportunities.