زمینه‌ها و ظرفیت‌های چیرگی ملی‌گرایی در چشم‌انداز آینده‌ی ایران

ملی‌گرایی در توسعۀ جهان مدرن، کارایی‌های زیادی از خود نشان داده است. با نظر به شکل‌گیری پویشی ناتمام قریب به دو سده در ایران برای توسعه و گذار از بحران‌های متعدد داخلی و خارجی، مقالۀ حاضر، ظرفیت‌ها و زمینه‌های ملی‌گرایی نوین به‌عنوان یکی از گفتمان‌های قابل تامل موجود را به‌سبب امکان رشد و چیرگی در مسیر آیندۀ پیش‌روی این کشور، مورد توجه قرار داده است. مقاله، روشی کیفی، نگرشی رئالیستی و آینده‌نگرانه و رویکردی انتقادی دارد، و با بهره‌گیری از برخی مولفه‌های روش تاریخی و مضامین اصلی در چارچوب مفهومی ملی‌گرایی، در پی پاسخگویی به این پرسش کلیدی است که «با توجه به وضعیت کنونی، مهم‌ترین زمینه‌ها، ظرفیت‌ها و امکانات برای رشد و چیرگی گفتمان ملی‌گرایی در چشم‌انداز آیندۀ پیشِ‌روی ایران کدام‌اند؟». بر اساس فکت‌های تاریخی، سیاسی و اجتماعی، نتایج و تحلیل نهایی این است که دو سطح از عوامل، در کنار هم، می‌توانند زمینه‌ساز اقبال نسبت به ملی‌گرایی شوند؛ یکی، بن‌بست و بحران ایدئولوژیک و شیوۀ حکمرانی طی چند دهۀ اخیر در ایران (شامل بحران‌های نظرورزی و آوانگاردی؛ کارامدی؛ بی‌اعتنایی، مسئولیت‌ناپذیری و عدم شفافیت و پاسخگویی؛ چپ‌گرایی و چپ‌گرایان ایرانی) و دیگری، ظرفیت‌های ملی‌گرایی نوین در قالب بازنمایی گفتمان ایرانشهری (شامل نوستالژی پیشینۀ افتخارآمیز تاریخی- تمدنی؛ حمایت از سبک زندگی نسل جوان؛ اعتنا به جایگاه و حقوق زنان و اقلیت‌ها؛ نمادسازی هنری و رسانه‌ای با بهره‌گیری از فناوری‌های نوین؛ تکیه بر فرهنگ زیست شادمانه و عناصر پیشرو فرهنگ ایرانی). همچنین با نگاه انتقادی و ذکر شرایطی، نویسندگان مقاله، ملی‌گرایی نوین را به‌عنوان آلترناتیوی شایان توجه برای آیندۀ ایران مطرح کرده‌اند.

backgrounds and capacities for the dominance of nationalism in iran’s future perspective

introductionneo-nationalism claims to offer a more responsive and realistic solution to the impasses of today’s world. currently, various forms of nationalism can be observed in countries such as the united states, france, the united kingdom, ukraine, russia, china, taiwan, iraq, syria, and armenia. therefore, in the era of globalization, the decline of nationalism and national sovereignty cannot be definitively declared. this article argues that the continuation of governance in iran in its current state is facing severe impasses and crises, and according to some pro- iran scholars, the country has no choice but to adopt an updated version of forward-looking, democratic, interactive, and conciliatory nationalism. the main research question is as follows: “given the current situation, what are the most significant backgrounds and capacities for the growth and dominance of nationalist discourse in iran’s future perspective?” in response, two levels of factors that facilitate the rise of nationalism in contemporary iran are examined: a) one is in connection with the ideology and inefficiency of governance over the past four decades (the deadlocks and obstacles in governance that have facilitated the growth of nationalism in iran in recent years), and b) the other is the capacities of neo-nationalism, in the form of representation of the iranshahrian discourse. finally, this study takes a critical look at the challenges and potential harms associated with the neo-nationalist current. the research method and conceptual frameworkthis research employs a qualitative methodology, integrating a realist, future-oriented, and critical approach. it draws on the historical method to examine past events (taheri, 2020: 133), using historical facts to identify and analyze the components that shape contemporary neo-nationalist discourse. the historical method also facilitates a deeper understanding of current conditions through the lens of past developments and transformations (sanjabi, 2005: 464). furthermore, by engaging with core themes within the conceptual framework of nationalism—such as nation, organized community, autonomy, and identity (heywood, 2014: 276–294)—the study develops a localized analytical model tailored to iran’s present context. with a critical lens, it also draws on modern governance and development theories, along with the lived experiences of developed societies, to assess the failures and inefficiencies of iran’s ideological governance in recent decades. data collection is based on library research, utilizing a range of scholarly sources. results and discussionnationalist discourse, drawing upon elements with deep historical and civilizational roots, positions itself as a viable and effective option for iran's future—an option that has, in a sense, already been tested by history. the iranshahri cultural framework contains intellectual and practical elements that, while originating in the pre-modern era, frequently align with modern global values and can be considered progressive. these elements include respect for human dignity and freedom, the recognition of women's rights, an emphasis on reason and rational governance, meritocracy, tolerance for diverse beliefs and lifestyles, a focus on justice, environmental consciousness, and a celebration of life and national grandeur. these principles have significantly enhanced the resonance and influence of nationalist discourse. in contrast, ideological religious governance, which established its hegemony nearly half a century ago on the basis of comprehensive promises for both this world and the spiritual realm, has had the opportunity to test its model. its failure to fulfill its slogans and realize its envisioned ideal world has cast serious doubt on the effectiveness, practicality, and long-term viability of its ideological foundations and proponents. conclusioniranian nationalism possesses a dual nature. when managed constructively, it can foster social cohesion, bolster political independence, and improve governance. conversely, if it veers toward authoritarianism or disregards citizens' rights, it can lead to repression, ethnic fragmentation, and instability. consequently, the most viable model for iran's future is a form of civic, democratic, and multicultural nationalism. this framework would integrate all ethnic and religious groups into a shared national identity, thereby strengthening internal unity while enabling positive international engagement based on coherent national policymaking.