شناسایی و رتبه‌بندی چالش‌های ژئوپلیتیکی بنیادین ایران

ایران کشوری منحصربه‌فرد از لحاظ ویژگی‌های جغرافیایی و ژئوپلیتیکی است، اما واقعیت این است که علی‌رغم پتانسیل‌های مطلوب جغرافیایی و ژئوپلیتیکی از آنها برای پیشبرد اهداف و منافع ملی به‌خوبی استفاده نشده و در جهت عکس به چالش‌هایی برای کشور تبدیل شده است. چالش‌های ژئوپلیتیکی بنیادین چالش‌های اساسی و پایه‌ای است، که دامنه‌ای از چالش‌های ملی، منطقه‌ای و جهانی را در برمی‌گیرد. هدف این پژوهش شناسایی و رتبه‌بندی چالش‌های ژئوپلیتیکی بنیادین ایران است. این مقاله با رویکرد توصیفی – تحلیلی و بهره‌گیری از روش کیفی و کمی به‌منظور گردآوری و تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌ها و در بخش میدانی و پیمایشی با ابزارهایی چون مصاحبه و پرسشنامه به شناخت و رتبه‌بندی چالش‌های بنیادین می‌پردازد. سوال اصلی این پژوهش بدین‌گونه صورت‌بندی شده است که چالش‌های ژئوپلیتیکی بنیادین جمهوری اسلامی ایران کدام‌اند؟ و کدام‌یک از آنها اهمیت بیشتری دارند؟ یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد چالش‌های ژئوپلیتیکی بنیادین ج.ا.ا عبارت‌اند از سه مولفة ضعف و شکنندگی اقتصاد ملی، درگیری‌های منطقه‌ای و مشارکت ایران در آنها و ساختار اداری- سیاسی بوروکراتیک و ناکارامد که بیشترین امتیاز را در بین مولفه‌های بنیادین کسب کرده‌اند. در مقابل سه مولفة رشد روزافزون تابوهای ژئوپلیتیکی، چالش امنیت ملی متاثر از موقعیت سوق‌الجیشی (تجارب تلخ اشغال ایران) و چالش‌های سیاسی به‌ویژه در زمینة وحدت و انسجام ملی کمترین امتیازها را در بین مولفه‌های سطح بنیادین به خود اختصاص داده‌اند.

identifying and ranking iran’s fundamental geopolitical challenges

introductioniran occupies a distinctive position due to its unique geographical and geopolitical characteristics. while the country possesses considerable strategic advantages, these have not been effectively leveraged to advance national interests and have, in some cases, transformed into geopolitical challenges. this study examines iran’s fundamental geopolitical challenges—those core issues that manifest at national, regional, and global levels—with the aim of identifying and prioritizing them according to their significance.  the research employs a descriptive-analytical methodology, combining qualitative and quantitative approaches. data collection includes field studies utilizing interviews and questionnaires to gather expert perspectives. the central research question guiding this study is: what are the fundamental geopolitical challenges facing the islamic republic of iran and which of these are most critical?  the results indicate that the most significant geopolitical challenges for iran include the structural weaknesses and vulnerabilities of the national economy, regional conflicts and iran’s involvement in them, and the inefficiencies of the bureaucratic and political-administrative system. these were consistently ranked as the highest-priority concerns by respondents. in contrast, the study identified several challenges that were perceived as less pressing, including the rise of geopolitical taboos, national security concerns linked to iran’s strategic geography and historical experiences of occupation, and political challenges related to national unity and cohesion.   methodologythis research adopts an applied, mixed-methods approach, incorporating both theoretical analysis and empirical investigation. the methodology consists of several key components: a review of theoretical foundations and case studies to establish relevant indicators, qualitative analysis of geopolitical frameworks, and quantitative assessment through field research.  data was collected through structured interviews and questionnaires administered to a purposive sample of 75 experts and specialists in the field. quantitative data was analyzed using the shannon entropy method in microsoft excel to determine objective weightings for each geopolitical challenge. this combination of methods ensures a comprehensive and reliable assessment of iran’s geopolitical challenges, balancing theoretical insights with empirical validation.   resultsthe analysis at the fundamental level indicates that the following three components received the highest scores:weakness and fragility of the national economy (score: 0.244907232),regional conflicts and iran’s involvement in them (score: 0.238593329),bureaucratic and inefficient administrative-political structure (score: 0.238590818).in contrast, the following three components received the lowest scores:the growing trend of geopolitical taboos (score: 0.209129617),national security challenges influenced by iran’s strategic location and historical experiences of occupation (score: 0.211934763),political challenges, particularly regarding national unity and cohesion (score: 0.215443129).given the average score of 0.226851181 at the fundamental level, 10 out of 19 components scored above the average, while 9 components scored below it. conclusionthe long-term viability and stability of any political entity fundamentally depend on its capacity to comprehend and navigate its strategic geopolitical environment. accurate identification of both opportunities and threats within this environment constitutes a critical imperative for effective governance. when approached with strategic foresight, this analytical process can generate the dynamism required for national resilience and continuity - representing the paramount objective of statecraft. conversely, failure to properly diagnose and address these geopolitical factors may undermine national stability, erode institutional foundations, and potentially precipitate systemic collapse. this study has systematically examined and prioritized iran’s core geopolitical challenges through rigorous empirical analysis. the research findings reveal a clear stratification among the identified challenges: of the 19 fundamental components analyzed, 10 demonstrated above-average significance scores, while 9 fell below this threshold. this quantitative differentiation provides valuable insights for policymakers seeking to allocate strategic attention and resources to the most pressing geopolitical concerns facing the nation. the results underscore the particular urgency of addressing the high-scoring challenges that threaten iran’s geopolitical position and internal stability. at the same time, the identification of lower-priority factors allows for more efficient strategic planning by distinguishing between immediate threats and longer-term considerations. this empirical stratification offers an evidence-based foundation for developing targeted policy responses to safeguard iran’s national interests in an increasingly complex regional and global environment.