اتحادیه اروپا و معمای ایجاد موازنه در روابط با چین و امریکا

تحولات اخیر در ساختار نظام بین‌الملل، موضع سه کنشگر عمده جهانی یعنی اتحادیه اروپا، ایالات متحده و چین نسبت به نظم موجود جهانی و سازوکار مدیریت آن را تحت تاثیر قرار داده و به ائتلاف‌های منافعبنیان جدید شکل داده است. در چارچوب نظریه موازنه منافع رندال شوولر، پرسش اصلی مقاله این است که اتحادیه اروپا به‌عنوان یکی از بازیگران طرفدار حفظ وضع موجود، چه انتخاب‌هایی را در ارتباط با ایالات متحده تجدیدنظرطلب و چین فرصت‌طلب در اختیار دارد؟ در فرضیه اصلی استدلال می‌شود که منفعت مشترک اتحادیه اروپا و ایالات متحده در حفظ بنیان‌های غرب‌محور نظم جهانی و منفعت مشترک اتحادیه اروپا و چین در حفظ چندجانبه‌گرایی به‌عنوان سازوکار مدیریت نظم (به‌طور مشخص چندجانبه‌گرایی تجاری)، سیاست اتحادیه اروپا را در جهت ایجاد موازنه در روابط خود میان این دو کنشگر، و هم‌زمان شکل دادن به ائتلاف منافعبنیان خاص خود با قدرت‌های میانه سوق داده است. داده‌های کیفی موجود در مطالعات و گزارش‌های دولتی و غیردولتی گردآوری شده، و با روش تحلیل سناریوهای محتمل و در چارچوب بازی‌ کالاهای عمومی، طیف وسیعی از موضوع‌های مطرح در روابط بین این کنشگران در حال و آینده احتمالی بررسی خواهد شد. سناریوها کمک می‌کنند تا درک بهتری از دیدگاه‌ها و جهان‌بینی ذینفعان مختلف به‌دست آوریم. بازی‌های کالاهای عمومی برای شناخت نقش عقلانیت در تصمیم‌گیری کنشگران و مشوق‌های تاثیرگذار در رفتار آنها مفید بوده، و مشخص می‌کنند که چه منافعی به انتخاب راهبرد همکاری موازنه‌کننده اتحادیه اروپا در روابط با این قدرت‌های بزرگ منجر شده است.

The EU and the Dilemma of Balancing its Relations with China and the United States

With the rise of emerging powers, the multilateral liberal international order, which has always been characterized as having the full support of the transatlantic alliance partners, is grappling with the challenges of inadequacy of the United States as a hegemonic power, and illegitimacy of rival powers such as China. In the meantime, the European Union, as a key actor believes in the indirect exercise of power through the institutions of global governance, and seeks to protect and restore the legitimacy and effectiveness of the multilateral international system as an entity that can provide more space and opportunities for Europe to safeguard its interest. Recent developments in the structure of the international system have affected the relative position of the three major global actors (i.e., the European Union, the United States and China) in the existing world order and its management mechanism which will be influenced by new interestbased alliances. By collecting qualitative data available in governmental and nongovernmental studies and reports, and by developing and analyzing possible scenarios, the authors attempt to answer the following  research question:  What choices do the EU statusquo supporters have in order to create a balance between the revisionist United States and opportunist China?Based on Schweller’s theory of revisionist or status quo behaviors of governments, and his four types of governments (i.e., lion, lamb, fox and wolf), the policies of the United States, China, and the European Union have been analyzed in terms of maintaining or changing the status quo. Within the context of this theory, in their research hypothesis, the authors postulate that given the common interest of the EU and the United States in maintaining the Westernoriented international order  and the common interest of the EU and China in upholding multilateralism (particularly trade multilateralism) as a mechanism for managing order, the EU has formulated its policy of balancing relations with the US and China. For hypothesis testing, five probable scenarios are developed and analyzed. It is asserted that the use of scenarios and public goods game as a research tool will be useful in carefully examining the contentious issues in the relationship between key international actors. Scenarios help to better understand the worldviews and policies of multiple stakeholders. Public goods games have been useful in understanding the role of rationality in actors’ decisionmaking and the key behavioral incentives which determine what choices will be made for cooperation and conflict in interstate relations. The EU’s share in the supply of global public goods (based on Western values) and the role that the EU should play in this international game are determined based on “absolute personal interests”. The key factors which work as incentives  for the role of the EU in the supply of public goods are the selfseeking benefits of their contributions, the expected costs associated with the failure to participate in the supply of public goods, and the concerns about the irrational or opportunist behaviors of the other international players which might try to maximize their own benefits at the expense of the EU.In conclusion, it is argued that the most likely scenario would probably be a hybrid scenario in which the European Union is reasonably anticipated to follow its own independent path in order to maintain global multilateralism, but in parallel with its transatlantic cooperation with the US to contain China, and its continued policy of  keeping its trade ties with China intact. Such a dualpurpose policy would be adopted to maintain the EU’s capacity for independent action while balancing its relationship with both China and the US. In other words, the European Union is primarily seeking to enhance (and then maintain) its capacity for independent action so that in case of the intensification of the renewed great power competition and even hostility, it could use this capacity in cooperation with the middle powers of the international systems for the purpose of safeguarding its independent position in global affairs. The EU is aware of the undeniable role of the United States and China in shaping the world order, and  is eager to increase the breadth and complexity of its relations with these two players.  It is not surprising to observe the EU’s continued efforts to maintain good relations with both China and the United States based on a set of common interests since it wants to avoid being relegated to a bargaining chip in a probable USChina confrontation.. In sum, the EU is forced to play a balancing act  between China and the US, but it is also interested in forming interestbased alliances with the middle powers.