تحلیل لایه‌ای علل تداوم بحران هسته‌ای جمهوری اسلامی ایران و پیشنهادهای سیاستی برای مقابله با چالش‌ها

هدف اصلی این پژوهش شناسایی علل تداوم بحران و چالش‌ها در برنامه هسته‌ای ج.ا. ایران طی چند دهه اخیر است، ازاین‌رو تلاش شده است با استفاده از رویکردی واقع‌گرایانه‌تر، جامع‌تر و چندلایه‌ای برای بررسی علل بروز چالش‌ها، سیاست‌های موثر برای مقابله با آنها پیشنهاد شود. پرسش‌های این پژوهش عبارت‌اند از: 1. چرا تلاش ج.ا. ایران برای دستیابی به فناوری هسته‌ای در دوران پساانقلاب با چالش‌های جدی مواجه شد؟ 2. چگونه می‌توان به حل این بحران هسته‌ای کمک کرد؟ در فرضیه تاکید می‌شود که تاثیرگذاری متقابل عوامل گوناگونی در سطوح مختلف موجب تداوم چالش امنیتی و بحران هسته‌ای ایران شده است. با رویکرد تحلیل لایه‌ای علت‌ها و استفاده از روش استنتاجی تحلیل مضمون، 60 مقاله علمی پژوهشی شناسایی و 25 مقاله چاپ‌شده داخلی در دوره زمانی 13981389 بررسی شدند. یافته‌ها نشان داد که علل تداوم مسئله هسته‌ای در سطوح مختلف نهفته‌اند، و اینکه علل مشاهده‌شدنی در سطوح اول را با استفاده از گام‌های متعارف دیپلماتیک در کوتاه‌مدت می‌توان برطرف کرد. با این حال، رویارویی با علل موجود در لایه‌های زیرین نیازمند سازوکارهای بنیانی‌تر   میان‌­مدت و بلند‌مدت‌ است، تا با مدیریت این بحران زمینه برای رویارویی با چالش‌های امنیتی فراهم شده، و در نهایت محیط کمتر چالش‌زایی با حفظ هویت دینی کشور برای دولت و ملت ایران ایجاد شود.

A Causal Layered Analysis of the Continuation of Iran’s Nuclear Crisis: Policy Proposals to Address the Challenges

The aim of this study is to identify and explain the causes of continuing challenges posed by Iran’s nuclear program in the past decades  in order to present a more realistic picture of this longstanding controversy. By using a more comprehensive, multilayered approach to the study of the causes of the problem,  the authors try to provide policy proposals to address the challenges, and ultimately resolve the issue which has sparked intense debate in academic and political establishments. The main research questions are as follows: 1. Why has Iran’s decision to acquire nuclear technology and invest in civilian nuclear energy program in the postrevolution era encountered strong international opposition? 2. What are the great powers’ reasons for their strong and unremitting objections to Iran’s nuclear program? 3. What are the most effective policy proposals to overcome the challenges and prevent the escalation of the nuclear crisis? In order to answer these questions, the authors rely on the causal layer analysis as well as thematic and inferential analysis methods in their quest to assess and explain the impact of key factors on the occurrence and persistence of this protracted crisis. Iran’s nuclear issue can be studied at different levels to identify known and lesserknown impediments to its peaceful resolution. There are some obstacles that can be removed in the short term through conventional diplomatic means such as direct negotiations. However, there are some more fundamental and deeplyrooted obstructing factors in the deeper layers which require more time to be tackled in a longerterm horizon. The main findings are as follows: First, the visible causes of the objections to Iran’s nuclear program are explicitly emphasized in the documents and resolutions of the UN Security Council. It is clear that there is a prevalent concern about the likelihood of Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapon capability which might endanger international peace, stability and security. Second, in the second layer of causal analysis, we examined what had been mainly discussed by the scholars and analysts in Iranian research and academic centers, and found diverse explanations of the causes of the nuclear crisis: In the first group, some researchers using neorealist and utilitarian approaches have argued that the Islamic Republic of Iran’s access to nuclear technology has been viewed as threatening the interests of all permanent members of the UN Security Council for various economic, security and political reasons The Big 5 intend to maintain their nuclear monopoly which is seen as necessary for their superior power position in the international system, and thus they are doing their best to prevent nuclear proliferation. The second group of Iranian researchers have adopted a constructivist approach to the study of the nuclear issue which is considered  as a challenge arising from the differences in the perceptions and ways of thinking of the two sides (i.e., Iran and the small groups of advocates of its peaceful nuclear program vs the larger group of the opponents of Iran’s nuclear program).  A third group of scholars have concentrated on elements of identity, and the clashing worldviews  of the two sides which have led to the development of different discourses with their own images and metaphors as related to the policies of protecting the status quo or reforming the existing world order in which some member states are reaping the benefit of their superiority at the expense of the rest. In sum, it is concluded that management of the international crisis over Iran’s nuclear program requires a comprehensive, multilayered and winwin approach which addresses the security concerns of other countries and respects Iran’s determination to protect its national interest, particularly as related to its territorial integrity and political system with a unique religious identity. The best strategy to confront the nuclear challenge is to use diplomatic tools to encourage the parties to keep to the existing international principles and rules, including adhering to the nonproliferation regime and accepting the legitimate right of Iran to continue its peaceful nuclear energy program under the agreement between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency for safeguarding its civilian nuclear. facilities. Focusing on mutual interestbased and winwinbased formulas is of particular importance for the peaceful resolution of the disagreement over Iran’s nuclear program.