تحلیلی از عرضه و تقاضای نفت خام در کشورهای صادرکننده نفت اوپک و تاثیر سیاست‌‌های پیشنهادی هیئت بین دولتی تغییر اقلیم (ipcc)

نگرانی‌های زیست‌محیطی و گرمایش کره زمین، تداوم استفاده از سوخت‌های فسیلی به‌ویژه نفت را با چالش مواجه کرده است. واکنش جامعه جهانی به مقابله با تغییر اقلیم، امضا توافقنامه پاریس در سال 2015 بود. هیئت بین دولتی تغییر اقلیم، برای دستیابی به هدف محدود کردن افزایش دما به زیر 1.5درجه سلسیوس نسبت به دوران قبل از صنعتی شدن، سناریوهایی را با در نظر گرفتن کاهش مصرف سوخت‌های فسیلی و افزایش مصرف انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر تدوین کرده است. این موضوع برای اقتصادهای متکی بر درآمدهای نفتی اوپک، تهدیدی جدی به شمار می‌آید. در این پژوهش، به منظور بررسی آثار سیاست‌های هیئت بین دولتی تغییر اقلیم سازمان ملل بر عرضه و تقاضای نفت اوپک از رویکرد اقتصادسنجی سری زمانی معادلات هم‌‌انباشتگی و الگوی تصحیح خطای برداری استفاده شده است. متغیرهای مدل شامل تولید و قیمت واقعی نفت اوپک، شاخص تولیدات صنعتی کشورهای توسعه‌یافته و نوظهور و شاخص قیمت انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر می‌باشند که به صورت ماهانه برای دوره 2021 1986 به کار گرفته شده‌اند. نتایج نشان می‌دهد براساس ضرایب برآوردی، تغییرات عرضه اوپک در بدبینانه‌ترین سناریو هیئت بین دولتی تغییر اقلیم سازمان ملل، 40 درصد کاهش در سال 2030 و 94 درصد کاهش در سال 2050 نسبت به سال 2010 خواهد بود.

an analysis of crude oil supply and demand in oil-exporting countries (opec) and the impact of suggested policies by the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc)

global greenhouse gas emissions have risen from 31,553 million tons of co2 equivalent in 1990 to 46,187 million tons in 2022. according to the united nations intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc), since the late 19th century, the earth's average temperature has increased by 1.1 degrees celsius.every decade since 1960 has been warmer than the previous one, with the last decade being the hottest on record. the warming caused by human activities and greenhouse gas emissions has currently reached about 1 degree celsius above pre industrial levels. over the past two decades, global scientific and political communities have increasingly focused on the issue of global warming and its associated climate changes. the historic paris agreement, signed on december 12, 2015, during the 21st conference of the parties (cop21) to the un climate change convention, was a significant step toward combating climate change and addressing the challenges of reducing emissions and investing in a low carbon, resilient, flexible, and sustainable economy. the agreement, signed by 195 countries, came into force on november 4, 2016. under the paris agreement, countries committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to prevent the global average temperature from rising more than 2 degrees celsius above pre industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees celsius above pre industrial levels.following the agreement, countries through the un climate change convention asked the ipcc to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 degrees celsius above pre industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas pathways. in the ipcc report, supported by 133 researchers, various greenhouse gas emission pathways to achieve the 1.5 degree goal were outlined. achieving this goal will require significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, with a major focus on the energy sector. four proposed scenarios, which aim to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050, predict a sharp decline in the use of fossil fuels. however, the type of fuel and the speed of the transition in fuel consumption vary considerably, especially for coal, oil, and gas, through 2030. coal faces the most severe reductions, with consumption needing to decrease by 59% to 78% by 2030 compared to 2010. natural gas has a better outlook, with predictions ranging from a one third increase to a one quarter decrease in different scenarios. oil has the most uncertain future, with the fourth scenario, based on bioenergy combined with carbon capture and storage (beccs), predicting an 86% increase in oil consumption compared to 2010. given the uncertain future of oil in these scenarios, analyzing the impact of implementing each of the ipcc's proposed scenarios on opec member countries, whose economies are heavily reliant on oil revenues, is crucial.