تبیین عوامل تاثیرگذار بر امید اجتماعی در بین شهروندان تهرانی

با توجه به پیامدهای نوظهور ناشی از گسترش شهرنشینی و توسعۀ روزافزون شهرها، اهمیت مطالعۀ شهرها به‌عنوان کانون پیدایش مسائل اجتماعی بیش‌ازپیش نمود می‌یابد. توزیع ناعادلانۀ ثروت، امکانات، خدمات فرهنگی-آموزشی، بهداشتی و رفاهی از یک‌سو و وضعیت نامناسب اقتصاد در جامعه، بیکاری و به‌تبع آن کاهش درآمدهای دولت که کاهش حمایت سازمان‌ها از افراد آسیب‌پذیر را درپی دارد، ازسوی دیگر بر میزان امید اجتماعی شهروندان تاثیرگذار خواهد بود. در همین‌راستا، در پژوهش حاضر سعی‌بر آن شد که با استفاده از نظریه‌های جامعه‌شناختی حوزۀ امید اجتماعی به میزان و عوامل اثرگذار بر امید اجتماعی در میان شهروندان تهرانی دست‌یابیم که درنهایت، پنج متغیر مستخرج از نظریه‌های بیان‌شده برای تبیین علل امید اجتماعی شهروندان تهرانی مواردی ازقبیل: رضایت از زندگی، احساس امنیت اجتماعی، احساس بی‌قدرتی، اعتماد اجتماعی و احساس نابرابری اجتماعی هستند. روش پژوهش از نوع کمی-پیمایشی و جامعۀ نمونۀ 400نفر از شهروندان تهرانی بوده‌اند که یافته‌های پژوهش از پرسش‌نامه‌های بررسی شده در بستر نرم‌افزارهای آماری اس‌پی‌اس‌اس و آموس نشان‌داد که هر پنج متغییر مستقل یاد شده بر امید اجتماعی شهروندان تهرانی اثرگذار بوده که با توجه به پایۀ ضریب هم‌بستگی به‌دست آمده، با افزایش اعتماد اجتماعی، امنیت اجتماعی و رضایت از زندگی، میزان امید اجتماعی نیز افزایش می‌یابد، اما در مقابل آن با افزایش احساس بی‌قدرتی و نابرابری اجتماعی از میزان امید اجتماعی کاسته خواهد شد. افزون‌بر آن نتایج ضرایب استاندارد مستقیم، غیرمستقیم و کل در معادلات ساختاری نشان‌داد که متغیرهای برون‌زاد رضایت از زندگی و نابرابری اجتماعی علاوه‌بر اثر مستقیم و معنادار بر متغیر درون‌زاد امید اجتماعی، دارای اثر غیرمستقیم و معناداری با میانجی‌گری سه متغیر اعتماد اجتماعی، امنیت اجتماعی و احساس بی‌قدرتی نیز می‌باشند.

explaining the influencing factors on social hope among tehrani citizens

emerging consequences due to the expansion of urbanization, unfair distribution of wealth, facilities and services on the one hand, and the poor state of the economy, unemployment and the consequent reduction in government revenues, which leads to a reduction in the support of organizations for vulnerable people, on the other hand, have affected the social hope of citizens.using sociological theories, we tried to find the factors affecting social hope among tehrani citizens, and five variables were obtained from theories to explain the causes of social hope, including life satisfaction, social security, feeling of powerlessness, social trust, and social inequality. the research method is a quantitative-survey type and the sample showed that all five independent variables had an effect on the social hope of tehrani citizens, which according to the correlation coefficient, with the increase of social trust, social security and life satisfaction, the level of social hope also increases, but on the other hand, with the increase of the feeling of powerlessness and social inequality, the level of social hope will decrease. in addition, the results of direct, indirect and total standard coefficients in structural equations showed that the variables of life satisfaction and social inequality, in addition to the direct and significant effect on the variable of social hope, have an indirect and significant effect through the mediation of the three variables of social trust, social security and they also feel powerless.keywords: social hope, social security, life satisfaction, social inequality, tehrani citizens. 1. introductionhope is one of the necessities of life and one of the indicators of social development. there are different answers to the question of what hope is. hope is variously classified as an aesthetic, discursive, ideological, and motivational or time- dependent affective orientation and may include some or all of these elements at once. in hope there are often contradictions such as fear, despair and even loss of hope. also, hope has opposite and mutual elements such as action and passivity, self-confidence, patience, past and future. social hope is a type of comparative evaluation and collaborative feeling towards the future based on the thoughts and perceptions resulting from previous experiences, which is based on the experiences of the people from the present and future developments of the society based on the current conditions. this concept is formed in time and the experiences of people as an objective reality are decisive for the feeling they perceive about their situation. from this point of view, although social hope is a kind of thought and feeling, this feeling did not arise in a vacuum, but it is caused by the effects that people have faced and evaluated during a certain period of time. what has been obtained in the preliminary investigations, researches and observations brings this fundamental question to the mind of the researcher: what factors influence the social hope of tehrani citizens? therefore, the researcher intends to carry out the present research to answer his/her mental question and concern, and also the necessity of the present research is of special importance based the above mentioned dimensions and can be considered and important by policy makers, managers and planners. since tehran is considered as the main metropolis and the capital of the country and has the largest population and ethnic diversity, identifying the level of social hope and the factors that affect its increase or decrease are of great importance, and this research is trying to examine these factors because the reduction of social hope and prolonged confrontation with serious and threatening events or unavoidable events in life lead to creating a negative impact on individual and social life. 2. research methodthis research was done quantitatively with a survey method and a questionnaire tool. the statistical population of the research also includes all tehrani citizens in the age group of 15 to 65 years, based on cochran’s formula, 384 people were determined as the sample size, which was increased to 400 samples to ensure this number. the sampling method in the current research is done in two stages. first, the respondents were selected by cluster sampling and then by simple random sampling. table no.1 shows the method of sampling in this research. it should be mentioned that by using the map of the blocks of the organization of statistics, the areas were selected in a cluster within each of the regions. that is, on average, 5 districts were selected in each region. and within each area, two blocks were randomly selected and the starting point was placed in each block in the southeast of that block, and at first, the units of each block were identified by listing all the plates. based on systematic random sampling method, sample households were selected and qualified people were surveyed inside each house. of course, in the absence of individuals, samples from the following plates were selected as substitutes. the collected questionnaires were finally analyzed with spss and amos statistical software. 3. findings researchin this research, the subjects have the following characteristics: 52/5 %are women and 47/5% are men. also, 22% of the age group is between 27-37 years old. 30/5% are in the age group of 37-47 years, 22/5% are in the age group 47-57 years, and the remaining 15% belong to other age groups. the education of most of the people was diploma with the rate of 27%, 26/3% of bachelor’s degree, 26/8% of master’s degree and the lowest level of education of post diploma with 5/3%. the remaining 14/6% were in doctoral and under diploma degrees. the marital status of the respondents showed that the majority of people were married by 60/3%, and single, divorced and other cases accounted for another 39/7%. in the activity group of the respondents, 52/5% were employed, 19/3 retired, 10% students , 9/5% unemployed and 8/8% were in other activities. in terms of ethnicity 43/5% of the people were from fars. 21/3% of the azeri people and the lowest of them were the baloch people at the rate of 1/5%, and the remaining 33/7% were the kurds, lor, gilak and others. finally, the majority of people in the research sample, 47/2 %, had a monthly income of 7 to 14 million tomans, 28/8% had a monthly income of 14 to 21 million tomans, 15/2% had an income of less than 7 million tomans, and 8/8% had an income of more than 21 million tomans.  table 2 shows that the results of the description and examination of the main research variables separately. the results show that the average score of social hope among people is 40/18 % with a standard deviation of 5/40, which shows that the calculated average social trust score of respondent is 19/30 with a standard deviation of 3/01, which means that the average social trust of people is also low. the average social security score is 20/74 with a standard deviation of 2/96 the average feeling of powerlessness of people is society 18/06 with a standard deviation of 2/95, the average score of social inequality is 23/70 with a standard deviation of 3/11 and the average score of satisfaction with life is 31/28 with a standard deviation of 5/52. as it is evident, the average social security and life satisfaction among people is lower than the average, and the average social inequality and feeling of powerlessness among people in the society is higher than the average. 4. conclusionthe descriptive results of the independent variables also showed that the average status of social trust, social security, and life satisfaction is low, and the average of social inequality and feeling of powerlessness among people in the society is