نااطمینانی نرخ سود تسهیلات و تامین مالی بنگاههای کوچک و متوسط منتخب پذیرفته‌‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار

به بنگاه‌های کوچک و متوسط به‌‌دلیل نقش آنها در رشد و توسعۀ اقتصادی، هم در کشورهای توسعه‌‌یافته و هم در کشورهای درحال توسعه، بیش از پیش توجه شده است. پژوهش‌‌های متعدد دربارۀ این بنگاهها نشان می‌‌دهد مسئلۀ تامین مالی برای آنها ازجمله موانع و چالش‌‌های مهم به شمار می‌‌رود. با توجه به سهم شایان توجه نظام بانکی در تامین مالی بنگاه‌های، نااطمینانی نرخ سود تسهیلات بانکی تاثیر زیادی بر تامین مالی و سرمایه‏گذاری آنها می‌‌گذارد. در این بین تعیین دستوری نرخ سود تسهیلات به همراه کامل‌‌نبودن اطلاعات بین بانک و متقاضیان تسهیلات موجب بروز نااطمینانی در این نرخ شده است؛ بنابراین پژوهش حاضر با توجه به تاثیر نااطمینانی بر شدت و نحوۀ اثرگذاری متغیرهای اقتصادی، به دنبال آن است تا به‌‌طور مشخص نقش نااطمینانی نرخ سود تسهیلات در تامین مالی بنگاههای کوچک و متوسط که یکی از چالش‌‌های اصلی توسعۀ آنها است را با استفاده از الگوی داده‌‌های تابلویی بررسی کند. جامعۀ آماری مطالعه،70 شرکت کوچک و متوسط منتخب پذیرفته‌‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار طی دورۀ زمانی 1390 تا 1396 است. به‌‌طور کلی، نتایج نشان‌‌دهندۀ اثر منفی و معنی‌‌دار نااطمینانی نرخ سود تسهیلات بر تامین مالی بنگاههای کوچک و متوسط در ایران است. براساس نتایج تجربی پیشنهاد می‌‌شود برای بهبود تامین مالی این بنگاهها در کشور، ازطریق کاهش دامنۀ نوسان‌‌های نرخ سود حقیقی تسهیلات، سیاست‌‌های مبتنی‌‌بر کاهش نااطمینانی نرخ سود تسهیلات در پیش گرفته شود.

Loan Interest Rate Uncertainty and Financing SMEs Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange

AbstractThe role and importance of small and mediumsized enterprises is controversial not only in developing countries but also in developed countries. Internal and external surveys of small and mediumsized firms indicate that financing is one of the most important challenges. The interest rate uncertainty will also have a significant impact on the financing and investment of these companies. The interest rate uncertainty, which is considered as the cost of rent by the investor and the opportunity cost by the depositor, is one of the most important macroeconomic variables in policy making. Therefore, the present article seeks to explain, after explaining SME financing and its position in the Iranian economy, the role of the interest rate uncertainty on SME financing as a challenge. The main aspects of their development are analyzed using a regression analysis. The statistical population of the study is small and mediumsized companies whose financial data is published in the Comprehensive Database of All Listed Companies (CODAL) 70 selected SMEs during 20112017. Generaly, the results show a negative and significant effect of interest rate uncertainty on financing at small and medium enterprises in Iran. Based on the results of this study, it is suggested in order to improve the financing of small and medium enterprises in the country, by reducing the amplitude of fluctuations in the real interest rate, the policies based on reducing interest rate uncertainty should be adopted.Kewords: Facility Interest Rate, Financing, Iran, Small and Medium Enterprises, Uncertainty.JEL Classification: D81, G21, L25, E43. Introduction:The importance of small and mediumsized enterprises is controversial not only in developed countries but also in developing countries, usually because of their role in economic development. Researches on SMEs indicate that financing is one of their most important challenges. Both Financing and investing of these companies are affected by interest rate uncertainty. The interest rate, which is considered as the cost of rent by the investor and the opportunity cost by the lender, is mostly recognized as a crucial macroeconomic variable in policymaking. Because of the substantial share of the banking system in the financing of Iranian companies, the interest rate uncertainty can have a considerable impact on their financing and investment. Meanwhile, determination of the interest rate by the government, and asymmetric information between the bank and the applicants of bank facilities has caused uncertainty in this rate. Therefore, considering the effect of uncertainty on the intensity and impact of economic variables, the paper’s object is to explore the role of the interest rate uncertainty in the financing of selected Iranian SMEs. Method and Data:This paper has specified an econometric panel model for the financing of SMEs in Iran which includes a set of main and control variables. To estimate the model, the paper has used relevant data of the selected Iranian SMEs. The sample of the study includes 70 selected SMEs that their financial data is published in the Comprehensive Database of All Listed Companies (CODAL) during 20112017. In this study, the dependent variable is the firm financing (total amount of bank facilities per year for the firm) and the independent variables are interest rate uncertainty of bank facilities, inflation, gross domestic product, and a set of variables within the organization (internal variables). Indeed, an attempt has been made to measure the uncertainty indices of the bank interest rate to be used in the model estimation. Hence, this research has measured the uncertainty variable by a method which is called Geometric Brown Motion (GBM). In these methods, the uncertainty variable (interest rate uncertainty) is expected to grow at a constant rate, so the variance of future values of the variable increases during the time. Findings:Based on the results of the FLeamer test, the Panel data method has been used to estimate the econometric financing model. Then we have used the Hausman statistic to test the selection between two models of Fixed Effects and Random Effects, in which the Fixed Effects model has been finally selected to estimate the model. Generally, the results show a negative and significant effect of interest rate uncertainty on the financing of Iranian SMEs. In general, the empirical findings of this study express the fact that interest rate uncertainty of bank facilities has had a negative and significant effect on the financing of selected Iranian SMEs and this indicates that an increase in interest rates of facilities can lead to some kind of investment risk, which ultimately increases the credit risk of firms and reduce the possibility of receiving future bank facilities to maintain their production capacity. Our findings imply that uncertainty in the Iranian economy has caused a reduction in their investment plans. However, to reach more stability in investment and production, Iranian companies and investors need to develop their business through benefiting from productive and certain bank facilities. Conclusion and discussion: According to the obtained empirical results, decisionmakers and policymakers of the financial sector should try to reduce the interest rate uncertainty of the bank’s loans to improve the Iranian SMEs’ financing ability. More specifically, the main attempts can be based on reducing fluctuations in the real interest rate and asymmetric information in the Iranian banking facilities sector through the development of efficient financial tools and any reduction in the uncertainty of the bank’s interest rate. Indeed, incomplete or asymmetric information between the borrowers and the bank (lending institution) is one of the basic problems in the financing system that the consequences could be uncertainty increasing, limited access to future credits, an uncertainty between banks and SMEs in the formation of stable and longterm relationships, corruption and rents in the distribution of resources, and also it has a negative effect on the financing of SMEs by the banking system.