ﻧﻘﺶ اﺗﺤﺎدﯾﻪ آﻓﺮﯾﻘﺎ در ﺻﻠﺢ و ﺛﺒﺎت در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺷﺎخ آﻓﺮﯾﻘﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺗﺄﮐﯿﺪ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ

اﺗﺤﺎدﯾﻪ آﻓﺮﯾﻘﺎ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺒﻨﺎی ﺗﺠﺎرب ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن وﺣﺪت آﻓﺮﯾﻘﺎ ﺗﺸﮑﯿﻞ ﺷﺪ، ﺗﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻟﮕﻮی رواﺑﻂ ﮐﺸﻮ رﻫﺎ در آﻓﺮﯾﻘﺎ از دﺷﻤﻨﯽ/رﻗﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﻪ دوﺳﺘﯽ / ﻫﻤﮑﺎری، ﺻﻠﺢ و اﻣﻨﯿﺖ را در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺗﺎﻣﯿﻦ ﮐﻨﺪ. اﮐﻨﻮن دو دﻫﻪ از ﺗﺄﺳﯿﺲ اﺗﺤﺎدﯾﻪ آﻓﺮﯾﻘﺎ ﻣﯽ ﮔﺬرد، اﯾﻦ ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن ﮐﺎرﻧﺎﻣﻪ ای از ﮐﺎﻣﯿﺎﺑﯽ و ﻧﺎﮐﺎﻣﯽ از ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ ﻫﺎی ﺧﻮد دارد. ﺳﯿﺮ روﻧﺪ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ ﻫﺎ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ رواﺑﻂ ﻣﯿﺎن اﯾﻦ اﺗﺤﺎد ﯾﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن ﻣﻠﻞ ﻣﺘﺤﺪ و ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن ﻫﺎی ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ای ﻧﺸﺎن دﻫﻨﺪه اراده آ ن ﺑﺮای اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از اﺑﺰارﻫﺎی در دﺳﺖ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﺎﻣﯿﻦوﺗﺜﺒﯿﺖ ﺻﻠﺢ در ﻗﺎره و از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ آ ن، ﻓﺮاﻫﻤﯽ روزاﻓﺰون ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ در ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎ و ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻓﺮﻋﯽ آ ن اﺳﺖ. ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﻪ دﻧﺒﺎل ﭘﺎﺳﺨﮕﻮﯾﯽ اﯾﻦ ﺳﺆال اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻧﻘﺶ اﺗﺤﺎدﯾﻪ آ ﻓﺮ ﯾﻘﺎ در ﺻﻠﺢ و ﺛﺒﺎت در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺷﺎخ آﻓﺮﯾﻘﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺗﺄﮐﯿﺪ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ ﭼﯿﺴﺖ؟ ﻣﺮور ﺗﺎرﯾﺨﯽ ﻧﺸﺎﻧﮕﺮ آ ن اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺷﺎخ آﻓﺮﯾﻘﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﯾﮏ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ اﻣﻨﯿﺘﯽ درﮔﯿﺮ اﻟﮕﻮی رواﺑﻂ دﺷﻤﻨﯽ ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ. وﻟﯿﮑﻦ اﮐﻨﻮن ﺑﺎ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖ ﻫﺎی اﺗﺤﺎدﯾﻪ آﻓﺮﯾﻘﺎ و ﺑﻪ وﯾﮋه ﺷﻮرای ﺻﻠﺢ و اﻣﻨﯿﺖ آ ن، زﻣﯿﻨﻪ اﯾﺠﺎد و ﺗﺜﺒﯿﺖ ﺻﻠﺢ و ﺟﻠﻮﮔﯿﺮی از ﻧﺎاﻣﻨﯽ ورﻓﻊ ﺧﺸﻮﻧﺖ ﻓﺮاﻫﻢ ﺷﺪه و اﻟﮕﻮی رواﺑﻂ ﺑﻪ ﺳﻤﺖ دوﺳﺘﯽ در ﺣﺎل ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﺳﺖ. در ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ آ ن ﺑﺴﺘﺮ اوﻟﯿﻪ ﺑﺮای ﺣﻤﺎﯾﺖ از اﻧﺘﺨﺎﺑﺎت و ﮔﺬار ﻣﺴﺎﻟﻤﺖ آﻣﯿﺰ ﻗﺪرت در ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎی ﺷﺎخ اﻓﺮﯾﻘﺎ و ﭘﯿﺎﻣﺪ آ ن ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ ﻓﺮاﻫﻢ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. اﺗﺤﺎدﯾﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺪرﯾﺞ ﺑﺮای ﻧﯿﻞ ﺑﻪ ﻣ ﻘﺼﻮد از اﺑﺰارﻫﺎی ﺧﻮد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨﺪ، ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ذﮐﺮآن، ﺗﻌﻠﯿﻖ ﻋﻀﻮﯾﺖ ﺳﻮدان ﺗﺎ اﻧﺘﻘﺎل ﻗﺪرت ﺑﻪ ﻏﯿﺮﻧﻈﺎﻣﯿﺎن در ﺑﺤﺮان آ ن ﻧﺸﺎن دﻫﻨﺪه اراده اﺗﺤﺎدﯾﻪ ﺑﺮای ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻟﮕﻮ و ﺣﺮﮐﺖ ﺑﻪ ﻧﯿﻞ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﻨﻈﺮ ﻣﯽ رﺳﺪ اﺗﺤﺎدﯾﻪ آﻓﺮﯾﻘﺎ ﺗﺜﺒﯿﺖ ﺻﻠﺢ و ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﯽ را ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻟﮕﻮی رواﺑﻂ ﺣﺎﮐﻢ ﻣﯿﺎن ﺑﺎزﯾﮕﺮان در اﯾﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ اﻣﻨﯿﺘﯽ ﭘﯿﮕﯿﺮی و در اﯾﻦ زﻣﯿﻨﻪ ﺑﺎ وﺟﻮد ﭼﺎﻟﺸﻬﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻮﻓﻘﯿﺖ ﻫﺎﯾﯽ رﺳﯿﺪه اﺳﺖ . در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺠﺎرب اﺗﺤﺎدﯾﻪ اﻓﺮﯾﻘﺎ در ﮐﻨﯿﺎ و ﺳﻮﻣﺎﻟﯽ ﺑﺮای ﻧﯿﻞ ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ ﻫﺪف ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد

The role of African Union in political development in the Horn of Africa Region

For the past four decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran, due to the intervention of supraregional and regional powers, as well as historical internal social, economic and political problems, has been involved in issues in the context of historical social trends and challenges arising from the emergence of hegemonic powers. The Western interventionist is understandable. The purpose of this study is to explain and draw different scenarios for the future of social, economic and political trends of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The leading article seeks to answer the question of what future can be drawn for the social, economic and political trends of the Islamic Republic of Iran based on the descriptiveanalytical method, emphasizing the futures research approach and using data collection and analysis. Thus, after examining social, economic and political issues and trends and using three categories of scenarios (shortterm, mediumterm and longterm), eleven scenarios were set, each of which points to trends from angles that in the shortterm perspective, The scenarios of continuation of the current stable situation and authority, struggle of arrogant powers for a global consensus against Iran are more probable, and in the medium and long term, the failure of the scenarios designed against the Islamic Republic of Iran is explained.