مضامین استراتژیک توسعۀ ورزش حرفه ای ایران مبتنی بر سناریو: از طریق سناریو ویزارد

رسیدن به آینده مطلوب در ورزش حرفه‌ای در راستای توسعه و بهره‌گیری از کارکردهای غنی آن در ابعاد مختلف از اهمیت ویژه‌ای برخوردار است. هدف از انجام پژوهش حاضر آینده‌نگاری استراتژیک ورزش حرفه‌ای در ایران می‌باشد. پژوهش با روش کیفی و استراتژی تحلیلی با تاکتیک تحلیل محتوا انجام شد. با استفاده از ماتریس 14*14 و نرم‌افزار سناریو ویزارد، سناریوهای سازگار، مشخص و سپس به‌صورت شهودی، سناریوهای آینده مطلوب، اولویت‌بندی، تشریح و تفسیر شدند. تعداد 10 نفر مشارکت‌کننده که از نظر علمی و تجربی تسلط کافی بر حوزه ورزش حرفه‌ای ایران داشتند، با روش هدفمند در دسترس و گلوله برفی انتخاب شدند. از نرم‌افزار سناریو ویزارد برای تحلیل داده‌‌ها استفاده گردید. نتایج، دو سناریو اصلی برای توسعه ورزش حرفه‌ای در ایران پیشنهاد داد: برای سناریو اول، می‌بایست سرمایه‌گذاری لازم در ورزش حرفه‌ای انجام شود، ورزش حرفه‌ای در نهادهای بین‌المللی محقق گردد، به آموزش نیروی انسانی متخصص و مسلط به ورزش حرفه‌ای پرداخته شود و از طرف حاکمیت به شایسته‌سالاری و رفتارهای حرفه‌ای توجه شود. در سناریوی دوم، عدم قطعیت چالش درآمدزایی پایدار ورزش حرفه‌ای با بسترسازی زیرساخت‌‌های حقوقی برطرف شود و در نهایت ساختار متناسب با رویکرد جهانی برای توسعه ورزش حرفه‌ای ایران مد نظر قرار گیرد. به صورت کلی باید اذعان نمود بازیگران کلیدی ورزش حرفه‌ای در ایران با هم‌افزایی امکان توسعه راهبردی ورزش حرفه‌ای را میسر خواهند نمود.

strategic themes of professional sports development in iran: through the wizard scenario

achieving the desired future in professional sports in line with the development and use of its rich functions in different dimensions is very importent. the purpose of the current research is strategic foresight of professional sports in iran. it was conducted with qualitative method and analytical strategy with content analysis tactic. compatible scenarios were identified using the 14x14 matrix and wizard scenario software and then desirable future scenarios were intuitively prioritized, described and interpreted. 10 participants with sufficient knowledge and experience in the field of professional sports in iran were selected using a targeted approach and snowball. wizard scenario software was used for data analysis. the results suggested two main scenarios for the development of professional sports in iran. for the first scenario,  the necessary investment in professional sports should be made, professional sports should be realized in international institutions, specialized proficient human resources should be trained, professional sports should be dealt with and the government should pay attention to meritocracy and professional behavior. in the second scenario, the challenge of sustainable income generation of professional sports should be solved by laying the foundation of legal infrastructures, and finally, a suitable structure should be considered in accordance with the global approach for the development of professional sports in iran. in general, it should be acknowledged that the key players of professional sports will enable the strategic development of  professional sports through synergy. based on the researches, in a general conclusion it can be suggested that a main method to stabilize the progress in professional sports in the future is to use new formulas for selling players in the transfer season or to create new formulas with strategy. another practical suggestion in the direction of sustainable development in professional sports is the creation of income generating places by clubs. this proposal does not mean only building or owning sports venues, but professional clubs can earn money by entering other areas, for example, by building several commercial complexes and renting them. construction of sports and recreational facilities according to the specific geography of each ecosystem and renting them can also be a source of sustainable income for professional sports clubs in iran and also lead to employment. it should be acknowledged that for sustainable development in professional sports, which has been costly and has faced major threats such as lack of real privatization and non payment of tv broadcasting rights to clubs, the best way is strategic development. in the short term, it is possible to take a forward looking view and examine new technologies. probably, with the development of new technologies and the reception that these technologies have gained among all people, including fans of professional sports clubs, the best way to make a sustainable income is to provide services to the fans of clubs through the creation of mechanisms and infrastructures based on virtual space and technology. because in the development of sports with policies, processes and actions, sports opportunities and experiences are created. moving towards development in the existing complexities that constantly appear in different forms is not destined without having a plan that can cope with these complexities and environmental changes. one of the most important complex environments with countless and constantly changing uncertainties is sports environments. the effective factors in the development of professional sports in iran includ: intermediaries, industries, media, government institutions, financial sponsors and shareholders, clubs, coaches, players, referees, ministry of sports and youth, etc. decision makers, managers and ceos of clubs can provide the possibility of strategic development of professional sports through synergy.