تعیین طیف فرصت تفرجی در مناطق بالقوه گردشگری با استفاده از معادلات ساختاری (مورد مطالعه: استان گلستان)

ارزیابی اثرات گردشگری به دلیل افزایش رو به تزاید جمعیت و حساسیت بالای منابع تفرجی طبیعی، اهمیت خاصی پیدا می‌کند. در این تحقیق، سعی بر آن است که با معرفی فرایند طیف فرصت تفرجی در زمینه مدیریت اثرات بازدیدکننده، توسعه گردشگری درحد ظرفیت برد امکان‌پذیر گردد. محدوده مورد مطالعه بخشی از استان گلستان (سه شهرستان گرگان، کردکوی، علی‌آباد) است. از مدل سازی معادلات ساختاری برای به دست آوردن ارتباطات بین عوامل استفاده شد. یافته های پژوهش نشان داد که طیف فرصت تفرجی تحت تاثیر عامل تعدیل گر ویژگی های جمعیت شناختی نیست. بنابراین،97 درصد از تغییرات سازه طیف فرصت تفرجی با سازه های دسترسی، مدیریت، تعامل اجتماعی، چارچوب مقررات، پذیرش اثرات بازدیدی، استفاده های غیرتفرجی تبیین می شود. رابطه همه سازه ها به غیر از استفاده های غیرتفرجی با طیف فرصت تفرجی در سطح 1 درصد مثبت و معنی دار است. معادله رگرسیونی به دست آمده در این پژوهش می تواند در برنامه ریزی گردشگری خصوصا در مناطق مشابه بالقوه گردشگری مورد استفاده مدیران جهت توسعه گردشگری قرارگیرد. انتظار است که با کاربرد ‌مدل‌های معادلات ساختاری در بخش گردشگری، اثرات منفی این فعالیت بر طبیعت به حداقل برسد.

Determination of Recreational Opportunity Spectrum Factors in potential tourism areas using Structural Equations Modeling (Case study: Golestan province)

Extended Abstract Tourism Impact Assessment is importance due to population growth and having high sensitivity of natural recreational resources. In this study, attempting to introducing process of Recreational Opportunity Spectrum in the field of visitor impacts management for developing tourism in possible level of carrying capacity. The study area is part of Golestan province (three Towns: Gorgan, Kordkuy and Aliabad). Structural equation modeling was used to obtain the relationships between factors. The research findings showed that the Recreational Opportunity Spectrum was not influenced by the Moderating of demographic characteristics. Therefore, 97% of the changes in the Recreational Opportunity Spectrum Latent variables are explained by access, onsite management, social interaction, acceptability of visitor impacts, acceptable regimentation, and nonrecreational resource uses. The relation of Latent variables, with the exception of, nonrecreational resource uses with Recreational Opportunity Spectrum, is positive and significant at 1% level. The regression equation obtained in this study can be used in tourist planning by Managers of recreational area, especially in potential similar areas. It is expected that with the application of Structural Equation Models in the tourism sector, the negative effects of this activity on the nature will be minimized.   Introduction It should be noted that, despite the desirable impacts of low recreational utilization levels, it can also lead to negative impacts. Therefore a certain level of effects is acceptable (Santiago et al., 2008, p.905؛  mikaeili Dazyani, 2012). One of the management frameworks to control the visitor’s impacts or determine carrying capacity is Ecotourism Opportunity Spectrum (Clark Stankey,1979:2)   Materials and Methods In this research, the effect of access, onsite management, social interaction, acceptability of visitor impacts, acceptable regimentation, and nonrecreational resource uses latent variables on recreational opportunity spectrum has been investigated using Sstructural Equation Modeling (SEM). In this model, a set of indicators is used to measure a concept which is called latent variable (Garson, 2017, p. 47). Smart PLS 3.2.7 Software (Ringle   et al., 2015) which uses partial least squares (PLS) for fitting the model was used for analysis of structural equation models.    Discussion and Results The data of this research was evaluated and finalized in three stages: 1) measurement model; 2) structural model; 3) overall model. But as mentioned above, if there is a lack of heterogeneity between the data, the result of this run will be valid. In this paper, the lack of heterogeneity between the data was examined and this issue was not confirmed. So the traditional PLS results will be valid.  As shown in Fig.1 , according to view of the visitors in the study area, 97% of the changes in recreational opportunity spectrum latent variable is explained by its Composed elements  which is confirmed in studies (Yamaki et al., 2003,  p. 57 ; Zulian  et al., 2013) .Overall, in this study, in addition to the degree of importance of each composed factors ,the degree of importance of each composed indicators of each factor was also determined.   Conclusions Using the derived formula, we can extract the first and the end of the spectrum by placing the lowest and highest Likert spectrum (1 and 5), And then using this formula and determining its numerical value by placing the results of the questionnaire in the study area, can be determined the position of the spectrum of opportunity.   Keywords:  Tourism Planning, Recreational Opportunity Spectrum, Structural Equation Modeling, Acceptable Environmental Impact.   References Mikaeli, A. and Deziani, S. (1391). Evaluation of Territory Resources for the Development of Tourist Recreation, A Case Study in ZiaratGorgan Valley, Approved by the research deputy, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources (in Persian).  Garson, G. D. (2017). Partial Least Squares: Regression Structural EquationModels. Statistical Associates Blue Book Series, ISBN 13: 978162638 039 4. 262. Ringle, C. M., Wende, S  Becker, J. M. (2015). SmartPLS Boenningstedt : SmartPLS GmbH, http://www.smartpls.com Santiago, L. E., Gonzales, C. A. Loomis, J. (2008). A Model For Predicting Daily Peak Visitation And Implications for Recreation Management and Water Quality: Evidence From Two Rivers In Puerto Rico, Environmental Management, 41(6):904914. Yamaki, K., Hirota, J., Ono,Y., Shojo.T., Tsuchiya, K. andYamaguchi, T. (2003). A method for classifying recreation area in an alpine natural park using recreation opportunity spectrum, Nihon Ringakkai Shi, Journal of the Japanese Forestry Society, 85)1): 5562. Zulian, G.,  Paracchini,  M. L.,  Maes, J. and Liquete, C. (2013).   ESTIMAP: ecosystem  services mapping  at   European  scale,   In:  JRC Technical Reports   EUR 26474 EN, Institute  for Environment  and   Sustainability, Joint  Research  Centre, European Commissio , PP: 154.