اثرات اقتصادی ورود گردشگران داخلی به قم (رویکرد داده ستانده دومنطقه ای)

توسعه گردشگری و اثر مثبت آن بر رشد تولید و اشتغال در سطوح ملی و منطقه ای همواره به لحاظ اقتصادی مورد توجه برنامه ریزان اقتصادی بوده است. شهر قم به دلیل برخورداری از جاذبه های فرهنگی و مذهبی یکی از مهمترین مقصدهای گردشگری ایران محسوب می شود. براساس گزارش مرکز آمار ایران، این شهر از نظر تعداد سفر انجام شده، در میان بیست شهرستان مهم کشور در فصل بهار و تابستان 1390 با تعداد 3333834 سفر، بعد از مشهد، دومین رتبه را دارا بوده است. در همین راستا، هدف اصلی این پژوهش سنجش میزان اثربخشی گردشگری داخلی به استان قم بر اقتصاد استان قم و اقتصاد ملی با استفاده از رویکرد داده ستانده دو منطقه ای است. پایه های آماری تحقیق عبارتند از: جدول داده ستانده ملی سال 1390، هزینه گردشگران داخلی استان قم و اشتغال بخشی استان قم. برای این منظور اولین مرحله تحقیق برآورد ضرایب داده ستانده دو منطقه ای (استان قم و سایر اقتصاد ملی) است که با استفاده از روش غیر آماری aflq محاسبه شده است. یافته های این پژوهش نشان می دهند با ورود گردشگران داخلی به استان قم در سال 1390، تولید استان به میزان 5625 میلیارد ریال (معادل 5.16 درصد ستانده استان قم) و اشتغال استان 22969 نفر (معادل 8.08 درصد کل اشتغال استان قم) افزایش یافته است. همچنین ورود گردشگران فوق در اقتصاد ملی به میزان 7532 میلیارد ریال تولید و 26163 نفر شغل ایجاد کرده است.

The Economic Impact of Domestic Tourism Qom (Two Regional Input-Output Approach)

Extended Abstract Introduction Development of tourism and its positive effects on economic growth, employment and poverty alleviation at national and regional levels, has always been highlighted by economic planners. Due to its cultural and religious attractions the city of Qom is considered as one of the most important pillars of tourism in Iran.The study of socioeconomic development of Qom province shows that the main development axis of the province is pilgrimage and tourism. The tourism industry can play a significant role in the socioeconomic and even political life of the city of Qom because of the lack of water, the weakness of natural resources and limitations of agricultural and industrial sectors. According to the 2015 report by Statistical Center of Iran (SCI 2015), with more than 3 million trips, Qom province ranked second of domestic tourists’ arrival among the twenty most important cities in the spring and summer of 2011. This paper measures the impact of domestic tourism expenditures on both output and employment in Qom province and the rest of the economy (the national economy excluding Qom province), using tworegional inputoutput approach.   Materials and Methods Three main data bases are used in this research: a) the 2011 national inputoutput table constructed by the Parliament Research Centre (2014); b) the 20112012 regional accounts for Qom and the rest of the economy (national economy exclude Qom province) provided by the Statistical Centre of Iran (SCI); c) domestic tourists expenditure and sectoral employment in Qom province and the national economy in the year 2012 provided by SCI (2014). A tworegional inputoutput model is used to study the impact of domestic tourism arrival to Qom region on the economy. For this purpose, two regional inputoutput coefficients of Qom and the rest of national economy are constructed through the intraregional and interregional coefficients using a nonsurveybased AFLQ approach. These coefficients are used as a basis for estimating the output and the employment multipliers in order to evaluate the impact of domestic tourists’ arrival expenditures the region Qom on the output and employment of both region. For this purpose we consider domestic tourism’ expenditures as a type of Qom’s export to the rest of the economy. Such consideration impose to the tworegion inputoutput model in order to calculate the impacts on output and employment. General inputoutput model is defined in equation (1),   In which,, is a column vector of output, is the matrix of input coefficients,is vector of final demand, is Leontief inverse matrix. When general form is provided for two regions, equation (1), transformed to the more detailed form as follows:   In equation (2), variable definitions are the same as in equation (1), and Q stand for Qom province and R for the rest of the economy. The effects on the output Qom and the Rest of the economy output and employment of any changes in the final demand of each region can be quantified using equation (3) and (4) below. In this case, suppose that there is an increase in the export component for the final demand in Qom province for the tourism sector, or , then the output for Qom and the rest of the economy region would increase as follows: From equation (3), the increase in the output for Qom is calculated as: whereas, for the rest of the economy would be: . Using equation (4), Qom’s employment increases according to , and for the rest of the economy, the increase in the employment would be  .   Discussion and Results Estimations of the impact are made by using the tworegion inputoutput model, equations (3) and (4). The results show that the wholesale, retail and repair of appliances sectors had the greatest output effect in both regions. The greatest job creation happen in the transportation, warehousing, and communications sectors in the both regions. Moreover, the results show that output of Qom province increases 5.16% as a result of domestic tourism in Qom in 2011 and Qom employment would also increase 8.08 %. The result also shows that the output of national economy increases by 7532 billion rials and 26163 jobs are created.   Conclusion In planning for each area, their specific capabilities, potentials, constraints, and needs must be considered. We recommended that policymakers and economic planners focus on the capabilities, opportunities and characteristics of different regions and move towards regional planning instead of applying macroeconomic planning. Then  regional policy makers lead to focus on the Qom province high potential of attracting domestic and foreign tourists. The results of this research can help them to estimate impacts of the development tourism.    Keywords: Tourism, Tworegion Inputoutput Coefficients, Employment, Output   References Bazzazan, F. (2011). The Production, Employment and Income Multipliers in Two Regional InputOutput Model. Journal of Quantitative Economics, No.2, pp. 151178. (In Persian). Bazzazan, F., Banouei, A. Karami, M. (2009). Analysis of Feedback and Spillover Effects in the Form of TwoRegional InputOutput Model (The Case Study of Tehran Province and the Rest of National Economy). Iranian Journal of Economic Research. No.39, pp. 2952. 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