شناسایی و تحلیل پیشرانهای اقتصادی ناشی از نوسانات سطح آب دریاچه ارومیه درعدم تعادلهای فضایی

در دهه های اخیر، دریاچه ارومیه با کاهش جدی آب مواجه شده است. این امر به نوبه خود اثرات مستقیم و غیرمستفیم بر وضعیت اقتصادی مناطق و سکونتگاه های اطراف و به تبع آن بر عدم تعادل های فضایی در منطقه داشته است. این پژوهش، با نگاه آینده پژوهانه به شناسایی مهم ترین پیشران های اقتصادی موثر در عدم تعادل های فضایی پرداخته است. تحقیق حاضر از نوع تحلیل ساختاری، از نظر ماهیت داده ها کیفی و بر اساس روش گردآوری داده ها، اسنادی و پیمایشی و قلمرو تحقیق نیز حوضه آبریز دریاچه ارومیه است. جامعه آماری این تحقیق شامل خبرگان و برنامه ریزان در منطقه مورد مطالعه می باشد که ب ه روش (گلوله برفی) 35 نفر ب ه عنوان نمونه انتخاب شده اند. در این تحقیق، سعی شده است با بررسی آمار و شاخص های اقتصادی میزان این اثرات بیشتر آشکار گردد. بنابراین، از ماتریس تاثیرات متقاطع در محیط نرم افزار میک مک جهت شناسایی نیروهای پیشران، از ضریب مکانی ( lq ) و تخمین تراکم کرنل در محیط نرم افزاری arc gis برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها و اطلاعات استفاده شده است. نتایج حاصل از تحلیل داده ها نشان می دهد، از 15 پیامد اقتصادی مهم در منطقه، کاهش اشتغال در بخش کشاورزی، افزایش بیکاری و کاهش درآمد در بخش کشاورزی و دامداری از مهم ترین و اثرگذارترین پیامدهای ناشی از کاهش سطح آب دریاچه خواهد بود. کاهش اشتغال در بخش کشاورزی در مناطق روستایی به تنهایی از تاثیرگذارترین پیامدهای اقتصادی در منطقه می باشد که نقش مهمی در ایجاد عدم تعادل های فضایی در منطقه مورد مطالعه شناخته شده است. همچنین یافته های ضریب مکانی نیز نشان می دهد، این محدوده در بخش کشاورزی صادر کننده نیروی کار می باشد. در حالی که اقتصاد اصلی این منطقه، کشاورزی است و بیشترین نیرو در بخش خدمات فعالیت می کند که تصاویر به دست آمده از تحلیل تراکم کرنل نیز این امر را اثبات کرد.

Futurology of the Economic Drivers of Urmia Lake Water Level Fluctuations on the Spatial Unbalanced

IntroductionIn order to tectonic analysis northwestern Zagros, we have used fractal geometry against classic geometry and fuzzy logic instead of Aristotelian classic logic to evaluate natural landscapes with noninteger dimension and the complex nature of tectonic processes. The fractal dimension (FD) has been applied to determine anomaly or normality of surface rupture (faults) pattern in association with drainage network that can show the maturity of structures. In other hand, uncertainty of fuzzy logic has been applied to specify the potential of tectonic activity by using morphotectonic factors. At the end, we have compared results of these two methods with surface epicenters of earthquakes.MethodologyTo calculate the FD of faults and drainage network using boxcounting, the area was divided to 6 boxes that contain main fault trends horizontally and vertically. In fractal method each box is covered by several network (grid) that their side length (quantity of Size) is decreased at every grid level. Then the relation between reciprocal of side length and boxes containing linear feature (quantity of Number) was drawn Logarithmically as a linear regression that shows FD. In fuzzy model, six main effective factors were determined and 12 layers were produced base on their importance in tectonic analysis. The membership degree of these layers’ effective parts by fuzzy functions were determined and then they were overlaid by fuzzy operators like gamma with different powers. Results and  DiscussionCalculating numbersize quantity using boxcounting method for faults and drainage network shows both partial and overall FD changes. As partial changes are close,  yjey indicate the existence of the selfsimilarity components. Based on partial FD, there are three communities: back ground with FD larger than slope of linear regression, threshold community with repeating component, and anomaly community with FD value more than three. Based on overall FD, development of faults and drainage network  have not entered to chaos phase. The comparison of mean value of fuzzy zoning with different gamma powers for each box indicates that 0.7 power of gamma has the most correlation with overall FD of boxes.ConclusionAreas of high value of FD for faults and low value for drainage network are more tectonically active. Here the box labeled A which represent western parts of Kermanshah in folded Zagros, has the highest FD value of faults (1.32) and lower FD value of drainage network (1.432). Epicenter evidences of earthquakes for example 7.3 magnitude earthquake of Ezgeleh, confirm the FD results; whereas, the box labeled E near Dezful Embayment shows the lowest FD value of faults (1.07) and highest FD value of drainage network (1/470). Overlaying fractal boxes (A to F) with fuzzy exports (gamma 0.7) are in line with these results and represent more potential of tectonic activity for northwestern parts of area (box A). Keywords: Tectonic, Northwestern Zagros, Fractal, Fuzzy.IntroductionIn order to tectonic analysis northwestern Zagros, we have used fractal geometry against classic geometry and fuzzy logic instead of Aristotelian classic logic to evaluate natural landscapes with noninteger dimension and the complex nature of tectonic processes. The fractal dimension (FD) has been applied to determine anomaly or normality of surface rupture (faults) pattern in association with drainage network that can show the maturity of structures. In other hand, uncertainty of fuzzy logic has been applied to specify the potential of tectonic activity by using morphotectonic factors. At the end, we have compared results of these two methods with surface epicenters of earthquakes.MethodologyTo calculate the FD of faults and drainage network using boxcounting, the area was divided to 6 boxes that contain main fault trends horizontally and vertically. In fractal method each box is covered by several network (grid) that their side length (quantity of Size) is decreased at every grid level. Then the relation between reciprocal of side length and boxes containing linear feature (quantity of Number) was drawn Logarithmically as a linear regression that shows FD. In fuzzy model, six main effective factors were determined and 12 layers were produced base on their importance in tectonic analysis. The membership degree of these layers’ effective parts by fuzzy functions were determined and then they were overlaid by fuzzy operators like gamma with different powers. Results and  DiscussionCalculating numbersize quantity using boxcounting method for faults and drainage network shows both partial and overall FD changes. As partial changes are close,  yjey indicate the existence of the selfsimilarity components. Based on partial FD, there are three communities: back ground with FD larger than slope of linear regression, threshold community with repeating component, and anomaly community with FD value more than three. Based on overall FD, development of faults and drainage network  have not entered to chaos phase. The comparison of mean value of fuzzy zoning with different gamma powers for each box indicates that 0.7 power of gamma has the most correlation with overall FD of boxes.ConclusionAreas of high value of FD for faults and low value for drainage network are more tectonically active. Here the box labeled A which represent western parts of Kermanshah in folded Zagros, has the highest FD value of faults (1.32) and lower FD value of drainage network (1.432). Epicenter evidences of earthquakes for example 7.3 magnitude earthquake of Ezgeleh, confirm the FD results; whereas, the box labeled E near Dezful Embayment shows the lowest FD value of faults (1.07) and highest FD value of drainage network (1/470). Overlaying fractal boxes (A to F) with fuzzy exports (gamma 0.7) are in line with these results and represent more potential of tectonic activity for northwestern parts of area (box A). Keywords: Tectonic, Northwestern Zagros, Fractal, Fuzzy.