بررسی نقش پیشران‌های کلیدی در تغییرات کاربری زمین و تحولات فضایی شهر با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی (مورد مطالعه: منطقه دوازده شهر تهران )

پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی، از لحاظ ماهیت براساس روش جدید علم آینده پژوهی، تحلیلی ساختاری است که با ترکیبی از مدل های کمی و کیفی انجام گرفته است. لذا، با توجه به ماهیت این پژوهش، گردآوری اطلاعات در بخش توصیفی، از طریق مطالعه اسناد کتابخانه ای و در بخش تحلیل از تشکیل ماتریس های متقاطع و متعادل به وسیلۀ نرم افزار micmac ، تبیین نیروهای پیشران کلیدی به همراه تحلیل رویکردهای سناریونگاری استفاده شده است. جامعه آماری پژوهش شامل 40 نفر از مختصصان و کارشناسان حوزه برنامه ریزی شهری می باشند که از طریق نمونه گیری غیرتصادفی هدفمند انتخاب شدند. طبق نتایج حاصل از میان 72 عامل کلیدی «مصرف گرایی در تحولات کاربری اراضی شهری»، «قوانین مالیات بر زمین »، «نظارت بر ساخت و ساز »، «گروه‌ها و طبقات اجتماعی در تحولات کاربری اراضی شهری »، «مجوزهای ساخت وساز غیرکارشناسی »، «مشارکت و همکاری در تحولات کاربری اراضی شهری »، «اقتصاد غیرمولد رانتی»، «تجاری سازی زمین شهری » مهم ترین عوامل کلیدی موثر در برنامه ریزی کاربری زمین و تحولات آن در منطقه 12 شهر تهران محسوب می شوند. مطلوب ترین سناریو، سناریوی شماره یک پیشنهاد شد که مبتنی بر موفقیت سیاست‌گذاری شهری در ساماندهی کاربری اراضی، برنامه ی هوشمندسازی، ارزش گذاری فضایی، حل مسایل سیاست‌گذاری-قانون‌گذاری و مجوز تراکم ‌فروشی در وضعیت مطلوب است.

Investigating the role of driving forces in land use changes and the spatial evolution of the city with a futurology approach ( Case study District 12 of Tehran)

AbstractIntroduction Sustainable urban development is a multidimensional process and understanding this depends on a proper analysis of its oftencontradictory complexities and dimensions. Therefore, this raises the need to pay attention to urban land use planning as one of the most important dimensions of sustainable development in urban space in order to be aware of the problems or development capabilities of the city spatial organization and its consequences and processes. The purpose of the present study is understanding of key driving forces based on futurology and scenario planning in land use changes and spatial developments in the 12th district of Tehran. To achieve this aim, the method of crossimpact analysis and scenario planning was used.Methodology The present study in terms of practical purpose is a structural analysis and is based on the new method of futurology, which has been done with a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. Therefore, according to the nature of this research, collecting information in the descriptive part was through the study of library documents and in the analytical part was the five sessions of Delphi methods, forming crossmatrices and balanced by Micmac software, explaining the key driving forces, direct and indirect impact analysis of variables have been used along with scenario analysis approaches. Delphi method has been used to identify variables and indicators. Thus, first, using scientific and research articles, the factors affecting the spatial organization of land use in the 12th district of Tehran were collected, then a semistructured questionnaire was prepared and distributed among experts (statistical society) in several stages in order to value those factors.Results and Discussion the statistical society of the study includes 40 specialists in the field of urban planning and research elites who were selected through purposive nonrandom sampling. According to the results among 72 key factors, 8 vital drivers including consumerism in urban land use changes, land tax laws associated with land use changes, construction supervision, groups and social classes in urban land use changes, unstudied construction permits, participation and cooperation affecting urban land use developments, unproductive rentier economy, urban land commercialization are the most important key factors influencing land use planning and its developments in District 12th of Tehran. According to the findings, it can be seen that the best predictable situation in the framework of the approaches used in the present study is in the form of first and second scenarios (green situation) with a high degree of compatibility and reliability. In this situation, the indicators, while achieving the highest scores obtained from the matrices and software analysis, in the scenario diagram page, its elements have a more uniform and convergent distribution.Conclusion By examining the cases and variables in this study, it can be concluded that the most influential factor in urban land use changes is consumerism. In recent decades, changing patterns of land consumption and commodification and the growth of capitalism has caused huge changes in land use in the 12th district of Tehran. Besides, the most desirable scenario is the proposed scenario number one, which is based on the success of urban policy in organizing land use, smart planning, spatial valuation, solving policylegislative issues and the ideal situation, permits and sales density in the favorable situation.Keywords Spatial developments, Urban land use planning, Scenariobased approach, Wizard Scenario, Tehran Metropolis