عوامل اقتصادی موثر بر نظام‌های بهره‌برداری از اراضی زراعی

این پژوهش به‌دنبال بررسی ارتباط بین عوامل اقتصادی و سطح زیرکشت محصولات زراعی است. مدل در قالب اقتصادسنجی فضایی برای شش استان با اقلیم خشک شامل استان‌های اصفهان، سیستان و بلوچستان، فارس، کرمان، هرمزگان، یزد، در بازه زمانی سال‌های 1392 تا 1397، تصریح شد. در این پژوهش به‌دلیل بُعد مکانی داده‌ها، از تکنیک اقتصاد سنجی فضایی استفاده شد. به عبارتی ارتباط مثبتی بین مشاهدات مربوط به سطح زیرکشت این استان‌ها وجود دارد، که عدم لحاظ کردن آن در مدل، نتایج تورش‌داری به همراه خواهد داشت. پس از جمع‌آوری داده‌ها و تشکیل ماتریس مجاورت، با استفاده از نرم افزار ststa15 مدل تخمین زده شد. با توجه به آزمون موران و تحلیل نتایج حاصل از چهار مدل فضایی، مدل دوربین فضایی انتخاب شد. در این مطالعه اثرات مستقیم و اثرات غیرمستقیم متغیرهای توضیحی برآورد شد، که نتایج بیانگر معنادار بودن اثرات مستقیم و اثرات سرریز بر اساس اثرات غیرمستقیم است. نتایج حاصل از تحلیل یافته‌های مدل دوربین فضایی نشان داد که توزیع درآمد در مناطق روستایی، توزیع درآمد در مناطق شهری، نرخ تورم، نرخ بیکاری، نرخ شهرنشینی، نسبت جوانی جمعیت، نرخ مشارکت اقتصادی و محصول ناخالص داخلی عوامل تاثیرگذار بر سطح زیرکشت محصولات زراعی در استان‌های مورد بررسی می‌باشد.

Economic Factors Affecting on Agricultural Land Use Systems

1.Introduction ldquo;Crops rdquo; account for the bulk of foreign trade in agriculture and a major share of the household basket. Therefore, issues related to maintaining the production capacity and economic potential of this subsector can affect the countrychr('39')s economy. Cultivation area is one of the important dimensions of the agricultural process that the beneficiary can make the best use of this cultivation area by using science, knowledge and technology, and get a satisfactory product. In this article, we try to examine the effects of economic variables on the crops area in six provinces of Iran, which are geographically adjacent to each other. Based on the information obtained from the study of the subject records, the present study is the first study in terms of subject and method that has been done with the method of spatial econometrics in the country.2.MethodologyIn this study, spatial data model has been used to investigate the economic factors affecting the crop area in six provinces of Iran that had a dry climate in the period 20132018. The scope of this research is Isfahan, Sistan and Baluchestan, Fars, Kerman, Hormozgan and Yazd provinces. The main issue of the research was examined in the form of spatial analysis. According to the theoretical foundations and model of spatial econometrics, the model of this research is Spatial Durbin Model. Also in this study, the direct effects and indirect effects of explanatory variables were estimated.3. Results and DiscussionThe results of spatial durbin model analysis showed that income distribution in rural areas, income distribution in urban areas, inflation rate, unemployment rate, urbanization rate, youth population ratio, economic participation rate and gross domestic product are factors affecting the crop area in the provinces under review. The results also indicate the significance of direct effects and overflow effects based on indirect effects.4.ConclusionIn government support services, attention should be paid to the characteristics of farmerschr('39') land, such as the area under cultivation, tools and equipment of farms. Given that the youth ratio has a positive and significant effect on the level of cultivation, it is recommended to managers and planners of the agricultural sector. For more youth to participate in the agricultural sector, support, arrangements and incentives should be provided to provide more production.Based on the results of this study on the level of cultivation and the significant effect of this factor on agricultural production, people and officials are advised to try to maintain and exploit reasonable land suitable for agriculture, because the revitalization and enrichment of land that has been repeatedly cultivated and cultivated. Made from minerals and salts, it is very expensive. Keywords: spatial analysis, economic factors, use systems, crops, crop area.